The College Football Playoff picture is starting to become clear, with only a handful of games remaining that can affect the 12 teams that get into the field. There are nine conference championship games set for this weekend, and realistically, only four or five of them can change the teams that make the 12-team Playoff.

The ACC, Sun Belt and American title games are must-win games for any of the teams to get in. BYU likely needs to beat Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game to earn its spot. In the SEC, Georgia is in regardless, but Alabama could end up on the bubble if it loses and BYU wins. The Big Ten title game between Indiana and Ohio State only affects seeding.

With that limited number of meaningful games remaining, let’s see what the odds say for the teams still hoping to get in.

Off the board
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Oregon
Texas Tech

Last week, four of these teams were off the board on BetMGM, meaning you could not bet on them because it was virtually assured they would get in: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia. Texas A&M lost at Texas but is still 11-1 and will comfortably be in the field.

Oregon and Ole Miss picked up wins to finish 11-1 and also secure their spots. Texas Tech is 11-1 heading to the Big 12 championship game, in which it is a two-touchdown favorite against BYU. The Red Raiders are also off the board, even if a loss could stir up some debates.

Expected to be in
Oklahoma (-5000)
Alabama (-3000)
Notre Dame (-375)

Oklahoma provided plenty of drama, but survived Saturday against LSU. The Sooners have scored 17 points at home in each of the last two games and still won both. The result is a 10-2 record with wins against Alabama and Michigan with losses to Ole Miss and Texas. It’s a strong resume, even if the Sooners’ offense is hard to watch.

Alabama also had a dramatic win on Saturday, but that’s just a normal Iron Bowl in Auburn. The Crimson Tide reached the magic 10-win mark and now play in the SEC title game. Should that read “but Alabama has to play in the SEC title game”? Because there is some downside for Alabama. If Alabama wins, it could move up enough to earn a home game in the first round of the playoff, but a loss would further muddle a resume that is on the bubble. Not to mention, an Alabama loss coupled with a BYU win in the Big 12 title game would likely take a spot from the 10-2 bubble teams. It looks like Alabama is mostly safe, but it’s not a guarantee the Tide are in.

Same goes for Notre Dame, although the Fighting Irish can’t play their way in this week. The resume is set, and it appears good enough as things stand, but Marcus Freeman’s team has to watch Saturday’s games and hope there is still room. If Alabama and BYU both win, Notre Dame could suddenly be directly on the bubble against a Miami team that beat it.

Win and in
Virginia (-165 to win ACC Championship Game)
American Championship Game: North Texas (-140) vs. Tulane (+115)
BYU (+425)

Virginia is favored in the ACC title game against Duke and would make the CFP with a win. It’s a simple scenario, although the Cavaliers are only favored by 3.5 points despite beating Duke by 17 on the road three weeks ago.

It has long been assumed that the American winner would be the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, and thus get a spot in the field. That still appears to be true, although James Madison could make a case from the Sun Belt. North Texas is a small favorite on the road in what appears to be a play-in game.

BYU gave itself a chance of an at-large berth with a win against UCF, after an early 14-0 deficit, to finish the regular season 11-1. However, the Cougars didn’t get any help elsewhere during rivalry week, so they are likely to still miss the 12-team field without a win against Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. BYU is a two-touchdown underdog in that game, so it’s no small task, but the Cougars at least control their destiny.

Need help
James Madison (+140)
Miami (+800)
Vanderbilt (+5000)

JMU’s playoff odds are the same as Duke’s odds to beat Virginia. The correlation is clear there. James Madison is such a heavy favorite against Troy (23.5-point spread) that victory is somewhat assumed, and there is also a slim chance the Dukes could end up ahead of the American winner.

Miami’s argument has centered around having a win against Notre Dame, but the committee has not put the Hurricanes high enough in the rankings for that to appear relevant enough. The +800 odds are leaving the door open for a sudden change of heart, but those are still long odds. Sorry, Miami fans, don’t shoot the messenger, but it doesn’t look good.

National title odds

Ohio State is still in front as the clear favorite to win the national title. The Buckeyes are +160 to win the national title on BetMGM, which means the field is still favored ahead of OSU, but not by much.

Indiana, which takes on OSU Saturday, is second at +450. Georgia (+800) and Notre Dame (+900) are next before Texas A&M and Texas Tech at +1000. The Aggies were third in the title odds at +700, but dropped a couple slots with the loss at Texas.

Ole Miss blew out Mississippi State on Black Friday to lock in its playoff spot, but the Rebels dropped from +2000 to +3000 to win the national title after Lane Kiffin left for LSU. For all the talk about whether Kiffin should coach Ole Miss in the CFP, the odds seem to think that his leaving is a negative for this year’s team.