Florida dives into the redistricting arms race despite political and legal hurdles

Florida is entering the national redistricting arms race, with a legislative hearing Thursday set to kick off yet another contentious map-drawing fight.

Republicans are hoping Florida, where they have full control of state government and already represent 20 of 28 congressional districts, will be fertile ground for further shoring up the party’s narrow House majority ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

But it won’t be easy, legally or politically.

From a legal standpoint, voters approved a constitutional amendment in 2010 that’s meant to block partisan gerrymandering. The state Supreme Court weakened the amendment’s ban on racial gerrymandering, but the prohibition of partisan gerrymandering remains intact.

“No apportionment plan or individual district shall be drawn with the intent to favor or disfavor a political party or an incumbent,” the Florida Constitution reads.

That means that lawmakers will need to explain and defend their reasoning for redrawing a map they enacted just three years ago without mentioning the partisan aims that have motivated other states around the country to pursue an unusually aggressive mid-decade redistricting push.

“While that partisan redistricting battle is not illegal in other states, that is illegal in the state of Florida,” Amy Keith, executive director of Common Cause Florida, told NBC News.

The politics aren’t simple, either. While the state has a Republican governor and Legislature, party leaders are divided on how to proceed.

The Florida House, eager to engage in redistricting, has scheduled two hearings this month. But Gov. Ron DeSantis said this week he wants a new map to be drawn in the spring, just days before the candidate filing deadline. That way the state could take into consideration a potential Supreme Court ruling on a Louisiana redistricting case, which could weaken the Voting Rights Act and make the process easier.

On Wednesday, the Senate’s GOP leader sided with DeSantis in the fight.

“The Governor has expressed a desire to address this issue next Spring. As such, there is no ongoing work regarding potential mid-decade redistricting taking place in the Senate at this time,” Florida Senate President Ben Albritton told colleagues in a memo.

Still, Albritton warned lawmakers to gear up for litigation, reminding them to stay away from partisans trying to influence the process and to keep all their communications and records for the likely lawsuits.

State House Speaker Danny Perez did not return a request for comment.

No map proposals have yet been filed, but there is an expectation that a redraw could net Republicans between three and five seats, with three seats seen as the most likely scenario.

Any potential special legislative session would have to come by early April, as the state’s federal candidate qualifying deadline is April 20.

Three seats that could be affected are held by Democratic Reps. Darren Soto in Orlando and Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz in South Florida.

If they decide to be more aggressive, Republicans could also risk a “dummymander,” a redraw that helps the opposing party by making previously safe seats more competitive.

Democrats have little ability to block any redistricting effort since the Florida Legislature is dominated by Republicans. But a coalition of more than 30 pro-democracy and progressive groups are planning to bus more than 300 protesters to the state Capitol in Tallahassee on Thursday in opposition to the GOP’s push.

Florida’s entry into the redistricting battle comes at a critical moment for Republicans, who kicked off the cycle over the summer by passing a new map in Texas that could net the party up to five seats. But since then, fears have grown that Democrats could neutralize the GOP’s push.

California Democrats responded with new district lines approved by voters last month that could cancel out any Republican gains in Texas. And while Republicans able to enact new maps in Missouri and North Carolina, efforts elsewhere have either not led to gains the party hoped for or stalled out.

And now Republicans are waiting for a final ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on whether they can use their new map in Texas in 2026.

The redistricting season isn’t over, though. A map that could net Republicans two seats in Indiana is currently moving through the state Legislature, though it’s unclear if it has enough support in the Senate.

In Virginia, Democrats kicked off a multistep process to draw new maps before the midterms in October that will stretch into the spring. State House Speaker Don Scott on Wednesday floated the possibility of an aggressive map that could result in a four-seat gain for Democrats.

And there is continued pressure on lawmakers in Maryland, Illinois and Kansas on redistricting.