There are a few at-large spots in the 2025 College Football Playoff up for grabs. Given who’s paired against each other, do not expect Sunday’s 12 p.m. ET release (Dec. 7, ESPN) to not officially settle the score. After all, this year’s biggest 11th-hour debate is between old blood rivals Notre Dame and Miami — and did you hear they also played this season? 

But there are several points of consternation for the CFP Selection Committee to worth through into the wee hours Sunday morning as it moves to set a 12-team bracket, with a special eye on the weirdness unfolding in Charlotte, where 7-5 Duke is playing for a CFP argument. Did Alabama play itself out of the Big Dance? What about BYU? And why is nobody talking about Texas as a bubble team? 

None are as big or controversial as the Irish versus the Hurricanes, so let’s start there.

Miami vs. Notre Dame debate will rage into the night

With No. 11 BYU suffering a second 20-plus point defeat on the season to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, the final at-large bid will likely come down to No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 12 Miami.

On paper this is an easy call: Notre Dame maintains its positioning and reaches the CFB Playoff.

What complicates that is the on-field reality that happened Sept. 1 when Notre Dame lost, 27-24, to Miami at Hard Rock Stadium. It was a big win for Miami at the time. It feels massive now.

But the committee, at least thus far, hasn’t respected that head-to-head result.

The Irish and Hurricanes had the same number of losses (two) for every ranking release. The Irish debuted at No. 11. Miami first appeared in the rankings at No. 18. The Hurricanes have crept up the rankings each week as teams in front of them suffered losses. But the CFP Selection Committee has always kept at least one team between them with a pair of committee chairmen explaining that head-to-head results are only a single datapoint it uses to seed teams. In other words, the committee hasn’t to this point compared Notre Dame and Miami in the same tier. 

Said chairman Hunter Yurachek on Tuesday: “It’s obviously easier to use that datapoint when the teams are back-to-back as opposed to when they’re separated by a team or two or three, as has been the case.”

We’ll see how the committee chooses to view Notre Dame and Miami when they are back to back as is expected after BYU’s loss.

Both fan bases would have a gripe if they were left out.

On one hand, the results on the field should matter. These teams played and Miami won. If their records are equal, you’d think that’s an easy tiebreaker.

On the other, nothing changed between Dec. 2 and Dec. 7, so there isn’t really a rational argument for the committee to flip them.

As TCU fans would tell you after their 2014 experience, rationality doesn’t always matter in these situations. 

We asked a committee of our college football experts which team they think would rank higher Sunday. Here are those results. 

And for your message board and social media battles, here are some numbers to compare the two sides leading into the decision:

Strength of Schedule (Per ESPN)

Notre Dame: 42nd
Miami: 44th

Record Against Currently Ranked Teams

Notre Dame: 1-2
Miami: 1-0

SP+ Ranking

Notre Dame: 5th
Miami: 9th

It does not appear that Notre Dame and Miami can both make the Playoff, unless …

… How does the committee handle Alabama? 

A three-loss team has never made the playoff. That comes with the obvious caveat that we’re only in Year 2 of the 12-team system. But it’s notable all the same given that No. 9 Alabama, at 10-3, is fully in the spotlight after a 21-point SEC championship game loss to Georgia.

It would be a surprise if Alabama gets left out. In our expert panel, nine of nine voters said Alabama will make the CFP — though one added, with some color, the Tide “should not.” 

Former Tide running back Damien Harris agrees, saying on CBS Sports HQ that Alabama is not a playoff team. 

Here’s the deal: Yeah, it was ugly, but dropping a team out because of a championship game result sets a bad precedent and would make teams question participating in conference title games in the future.

At the same time … Alabama will have three losses, including a double-digit defeat to a 5-7 Florida State team.

Given the Tide have a road win over Georgia on their resume along with a 16-point win over Vanderbilt, it’s still unlikely they get left out. But Alabama is going to sweat a little going into Saturday afternoon.

Does BYU, a CCG loser like Alabama, have any argument? 

If the conference championship game isn’t going to hurt Alabama’s ability to make the field, why should it impact BYU?

The No. 11 Cougars will make that argument after an 11-1 regular season. I just don’t think they made a strong enough case in a 34-7 loss to Texas Tech. It’s BYU’s second three-score loss to the Red Raiders this season. Given BYU only has one top 25 win this year (Utah) and it doesn’t stack up as well in the advanced metrics (No. 14 in SP+), a loss in that fashion is too difficult to overcome.

What about Texas?

If a three-loss Alabama is going to be considered for the playoff field, what about Texas?

The Longhorns are 3-2 against top 15 teams (as they are currently ranked), with two of those losses coming on the road to top five opponents (Ohio State, Georgia). They also are the only team to beat No. 7 Texas A&M this season. 

Despite the narrative Texas is pushing about scheduling Ohio State in Week 1, its real problem is a bad road loss to now 4-8 Florida. Win that game and the Longhorns — with wins over Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma — are easily the top-ranked two-loss team (and here’s where rabid Texas fans point out that Alabama lost to Florida State, which lost to Florida, or that Oklahoma managed just six points against them — yet has been more valued by the committee almost the entire run of voting). 

Texas fell seven spots, from No. 10 to No. 17, when it lost by 25 at Georgia in mid-November, so it would probably point to Alabama’s 21-point loss vs. Georgia this weekend as grounds for the Tide to seriously drop, but there are obvious complications to that point such as the game occurring during the conference championship and Alabama having already beaten Georgia. 

Unfortunately for the Longhorns, there are just too many teams ahead of them in the rankings at No. 13 entering the week. They probably are a top 12 team in the country, but the playoff as currently constructed does not get the 12 best teams in the playoff. It is still determined by a mix of best and most deserving. Under rule of a committee who places ample value in wins and losses, those three regular season losses make any argument for Texas rather difficult against a sea of two-loss teams.

Following the conclusion of the Big Ten and ACC championship games, we will project the four byes and the full 12-team field in this space.Â