Keagan Smith takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for Sunday’s game between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 14.
Week 14 of the NFL regular season has arrived, bringing a loaded slate of games on Sunday. In the NFC South, the New Orleans’ Saints fate as a rebuilding team became sealed long ago, but the franchise will surely still look to play spoiler heading into this week’s matchup against the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Can Tyler Shough capture lightning in a bottle for an upset win on the road, or will Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving down the division opponent with ease?
Read on for a Saints vs. Buccaneers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for this Week 14 NFC South showdown.
Saints vs. Buccaneers prediction, preview
New Orleans Saints
The Saints hit the road this week in a three-way tie for the NFL’s second-worst record at 2-10, so the next couple of games will make a massive difference in ultimately deciding draft position once April rolls around. In this matchup though, it’s unlikely New Orleans doesn’t at least try to make magic happen against a rival at Raymond James Stadium. The things the Saints do well largely come on defense, sitting 12th in total yards allowed per game (314.6) with the ninth-best sack percentage (7.82%). They have a surprisingly good unit against the pass at seventh in average passing yards allowed (187.7). However, that may be due to a lack of volume since the Saints trail often in games and opponents don’t have to throw all that much to begin with.
That’s largely where the positives end with New Orleans ranking 30th in PPG (15.2) and 26th in total yards per game (296.6) as well as dead-last in red-zone scoring percentage. Alvin Kamara is again out, leaving rookie sixth-rounder Devin Neal in the RB1 role after an uninspiring outing last week. Elsewhere on the offense though, Tyler Shough comes off one of the better games of his young career with 239 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while completing 68.4% of his passes. He’ll surely look to Chris Olave early and often in this one, though Devaughn Vele also lingers as a possible breakout candidate if Olave isn’t able to play due to the back injury that has him questionable.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After the Carolina Panthers unexpectedly beat the L.A. Rams last week, the top of the NFC South now looks like a potential race to the finish. With the Panthers are on a bye this week, the Buccaneers have a chance to put a game between themselves and their seven-win rival in the standings with a win. Tampa Bay has the upper hand in this one with the offense much healthier thanks to the return of Bucky Irving last week, who ran for 61 yards and a touchdown in his first contest since the opening month of the season. The halfback is a significant boost for an offense that sits 17th in PPG (23.3) and 21st in yards per game (316.2), so improvements to both the ground game and aerial attack are likely imminent with the dual-threat player back in the mix. Plus, the other weapons are getting healthier with Chris Godwin recently re-joining Emeka Egbuka and Mike Evans nearing a return, though the latter is still out on Sunday. It’s quite possible that Baker Mayfield could return to the dominant version of himself we saw in the early going sometime soon.
Defensively, the Buccaneers are largely unimpressive though. The unit sits 23rd in opponent PPG (25.1) and 22nd in opponent yardage (344.9/GM) while sitting 30th in red-zone scoring percentage allowed. Fans will be relived to find out it’s not all bad, with the sixth-best run defense allowing just 97.4 yards per contest. They’re vulnerable through the air at 29th in passing yards allowed per game (247.5), which feels like the way the Saints need to attack. While Tampa Bay ranks middle of the pack in sack percentage (6.53%), the defense does come in at sixth in takeaways per game with 1.5.
Saints vs. Buccaneers pick, best bet
On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Buccaneers are -8.5 home favorites with -440 odds to win on the Moneyline. The Saints are listed at +340 to win outright with a game total of 41.5 points. As far as betting splits go, 95% of straight bets favor Tampa Bay while 70% are on the Bucs to cover. On the total, 59% of the wagers favor the over.
Tampa Bay should absolutely roll in this game now that Irving is back in the picture and appears fully recovered. He’s the most dynamic playmaker on the field between either of these two teams, and New Orleans isn’t particularly stout against the run at 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (126.9). Irving is an efficient runner who can hit the home run, and his ability to catch passes in space and turn them into chunk gains is a truly elite skill. He should only see more work as the final weeks of the season roll on, which is especially the case since the Buccaneers should play with the lead on Sunday. Despite what the stats may show about the Saints’ ability to stop the pass, Mayfield can pick the secondary and Ebguka isn’t an easy cover while Godwin works in the slot, even if the latter isn’t quite the playmaker he used to be due to injury. Combine the Kamara injury with the Bucs’ ability to stifle the run and turnover creation, and suddenly it’ll be up to Shough to make plays and air the ball out without giving it away to the other team. It’s difficult to trust the rookie even if he’s played decent ball in a couple of contests. Conversely, it’s a lot easier to assume Mayfield and his playmakers don’t have any such issues against one of the NFL’s bottom-tier teams.
While I considered Buccaneers -8.5 here, I’m targeting over 41.5 instead since it’s one of the lower totals on this slate and the Saints usually manage a touchdown or two if they’re lucky. Tampa Bay should do most of the heavy lifting and win in a blowout, so between two leaky defenses, there should be enough firepower to cash the pick in Week 14.
Best bet: Over 41.5 points (-118)