The debating is over. Well, at least the point of it is over. The College Football Playoff is set, and we have four first-round matchups to get ready for.
The 12-team field has four teams returning from last year’s CFP: Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon. It also includes two rematches from the regular season with No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss and No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma. The Rebels are favored by a whopping 16.5 points against Tulane, but that’s not even the biggest spread of the first round. That goes to No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon, a game in which the Ducks are favored by 21.5 points.
After last year’s first-round blowouts, we could be on track for more this year based on those spreads. Here’s a look at the odds and matchups for the first round of the CFP.
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Spread: Oregon -20.5
Total: 50.5
Last year, Oregon was the clear No. 1 seed and entered the CFP undefeated. Then, the Ducks fell behind Ohio State 34-0 at the Rose Bowl, and the season was over in a heartbeat. This time around, Oregon doesn’t have a bye, but does get a home game and is the biggest favorite of the first round.
James Madison gets into the playoff after Virginia lost to Duke in the ACC title game. Having the Dukes and Ducks in the same game, thanks to a win by Duke, is a tongue twister.
One big note in this game is that JMU coach Bob Chesney is headed to UCLA after the CFP, one of three head coaches in the field taking another job.
Oregon’s only loss was at home to No. 1 Indiana, and it closed the season with four straight wins against teams with winning records. Are the Ducks primed for a run this time? Oregon fans may be excited to see Ohio State on the opposite half of the bracket. Big 12 champion Texas Tech will play the winner of this game in the Orange Bowl.
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Spread: Ole Miss -16.5
Total: 56.5
It’s hard to get fired up for a game that we saw at the same venue this season that ended 45-10. That’s what Ole Miss did to Tulane the first time around. Some things are different, though.
For one, Lane Kiffin is gone. Kiffin is now at LSU after coaching the Rebels to arguably their best season ever. On the Tulane side, coach Jon Sumrall is sticking around through this playoff run, but he is headed to Florida after it ends. How will that affect the rematch?
If you’re looking for a reason to take Tulane to cover, rematches don’t always go the way of the original. Just look at the conference championship games. Six of the nine conference title games were rematches, and only two of the teams that won the original matchup won the second edition (Boise State vs. UNLV and Texas Tech vs. BYU while Alabama lost to Georgia, Virginia lost to Duke, Jacksonville State lost to Kennesaw State and Miami Ohio lost to Western Michigan).
The first time around, Ole Miss was up by 20 at halftime and outgained the Green Wave 548-282. Feel free to make your wisecracks about how that sounds exactly like a CFP first-round game.
If Ole Miss wins, the Rebels would be in line for another rematch, this time against No. 3 Georgia in a quarterfinal at the Sugar Bowl. Georgia won the first meeting 45-35.
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M
Spread: Texas A&M -3.5
Total: 51.5
Notre Dame fans are going to have a hard time with this game. Not only did Miami get in ahead of the Fighting Irish on the last week of the CFP rankings, but this could be called the “We Beat Notre Dame Bowl.”
Both of these teams beat Notre Dame early in the season and now meet in College Station in a playoff game. The Aggies are favored by a little more than a field goal.
The last time Texas A&M played, it lost to rival Texas by multiple scores. While the Aggies avoided any CFP controversy by winning their first 11 games, that game did leave some doubt, considering the Aggies did not get a win against an SEC team with a winning record in the conference. Texas was the only opponent A&M faced that had a winning record in SEC play.
Both share that big early-season win against Notre Dame. The Aggies won by a point in South Bend, while Miami beat the Irish by three in Miami Gardens.
Miami also picked up wins against South Florida, Florida and Florida State en route to a 5-0 start that had the Hurricanes as high as No. 2 in the polls. Then the U lost to Louisville and SMU in a three-week span that put it on the bubble. Miami sneaks back in the field after winning its last four games by 27.5 points per game.
No. 2 Ohio State awaits the winner.
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Spread: Alabama -1.5
Total: 40.5
The other first-round rematch was a bizarre game the first time around. Alabama absolutely dominated the Sooners in total yards, 406-212, but had three turnovers and a missed field goal in a 2-point loss.
Is that a repeatable formula for the Sooners to win? Normally, the answer would be no, but Oklahoma lives in games like that because its defense is nasty. Unfortunately, its offense… is nasty for its fans to watch.
The spread is very close, with the Crimson Tide pegged as small favorites.
The biggest difference is that this game will be in Norman after the first meeting was in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners have won against Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama each of the last two years. Last year’s upset knocked Alabama out of the playoff, and this year’s shocker almost did.
Oklahoma crossed the 30-point mark once against a power conference opponent, and that 33-point showing at Tennessee was aided by a defensive touchdown. The Sooners closed the season with two straight home wins, where 17 points were enough for the victories. That’s why the point total for this game is so low at 40.5 points.
While Alabama will try to exorcise its OU demons, No. 1 Indiana will watch and await the winner for a meeting in the Rose Bowl.