No. 10 Miami travels to College Station on Saturday to face No. 7 Texas A&M in a first round College Football Playoff matchup that sets up as one of the weekend’s most physical games. Texas A&M enters at 11–1 after navigating a demanding SEC schedule, while Miami secured its playoff spot at 10–2 by closing the season with strong, efficient performances on both sides of the ball. The Aggies lean on a balanced offense and a defense that consistently wins at the point of attack, but Miami brings speed, discipline, and enough offensive balance to challenge A&M in a hostile road environment.
Injuries add another layer to the matchup. Miami expects to have defensive back Keionte Scott available after he missed time late in the season, which would stabilize the secondary. Linebacker Malik Bryant remains out, while wide receiver Daylyn Upshaw is doubtful and defensive back Damari Brown is questionable. Those absences could test Miami’s depth, particularly if Texas A&M finds success throwing the ball early. On the Aggies’ side, running back Le’Veon Moss is questionable but trending toward playing, and defensive backs Scooby Williams and Bryce Anderson are expected to suit up, giving Texas A&M a largely intact roster for the opener.
Kickoff is set for noon ET, and the early flow of the game may decide the outcome. Texas A&M will try to assert itself up front and feed off the home crowd, while Miami needs to stay on schedule offensively and limit explosive plays. With a spot in the next round on the line, whichever team handles the moment and controls early downs should have the inside track to advance.
Miami vs. Texas A&M betting preview
Explore the interactive widget below to view the latest spread, over/under, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Miami-Texas A&M matchup at Kyle Field in College Station, TX.
Expert Prediction: Miami vs. Texas A&M
Dimers’ 10,000-game simulation set points to Texas A&M controlling the matchup at home. The model gives the Aggies a 65 percent win probability and projects a 28–23 Texas A&M victory, a number that puts this game right on the edge of the posted total.
Best Bet: Over 48.5
With both teams projected to land in the mid-to-high 20s and Miami likely needing to stay aggressive to keep pace, the game script supports a faster tempo and sustained scoring opportunities on both sides.
Best CFP Player PropsMalachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (Miami)Ashton Bethel-Roman over 18.5 receiving yards (Texas A&M)CJ Daniels over 35.5 receiving yards (Miami)Malachi Toney over 6.5 receptions (Miami)Marcel Reed over 224.5 passing yards (Texas A&M)Keelan Marion over 33.5 receiving yards (Miami)Conclusion: Miami vs. Texas A&M
Texas A&M holds the statistical edge, but Miami’s passing volume keeps this matchup competitive and offense-driven. The projected score supports the over, and Miami’s receiving props stand out in a game where the Hurricanes are likely throwing into the second half. For added upside, Malachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (-105) fits cleanly into the expected game flow and complements the over nicely.
We emphasize that all of the CFB predictions and CFB best bets in this preview are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Miami vs. Texas A&M game, and they are correct at the time of publication to help you make better decisions when placing bets at online sportsbooks.
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