No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami CFP prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff kick off New Year’s Eve with the Cotton Bowl featuring No. 10 Miami and No. 2 Ohio State.

The Buckeyes begin defense of their national title against the Hurricanes who advanced with a 10-3 win over Texas A&M at College Station on December 20. The difference was the return to prominence of running back Mark Fletcher. Used sparingly since returning to the lineup after an injury November 1 against SMU, the Miami halfback was dominant in Round 1 against the Aggies earning 172 yards on just 17 carries.

Ohio State is looking to rebound off a loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game. Led by Heisman finalist Julian Sayin the Buckeyes tout an efficient offense to pair with the nation’s top-ranked defense.

We’ll dive into each of these schools a bit deeper but first lets take a glance at their shared histories.

The Buckeyes lead the all-time series three games to two with their last meeting being the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. It marked a turning point for both programs. Ohio State was a heavy underdog to the defending champs but won 31-24 in double overtime, securing their first national championship since 1970. The loss by the Canes snapped Miami’s 34-game winning streak. While Ohio State has since won two additional national titles, Miami will finish this season in the Top Ten for the first time since that season.

Game Details and How to Watch Miami vs. Ohio State

Date: Saturday, December 31, 2025

Game Odds: Miami vs. Ohio State

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Miami Hurricanes (+280), Ohio State Buckeyes (-355)

Spread: Ohio State -9.5 (-110)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Miami Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 11-2
Offense Ranking: 16
Defense Ranking: 10
Strength of Schedule: 41

Miami put together a 10–2 (6–2 ACC) regular season that largely matched its underlying profile, finishing with 10.2 second-order wins and a Top 10 SP+ ranking (9th) that reflected consistent week-to-week execution. The Hurricanes were driven by a highly efficient offense that paired a 49.4% overall success rate (10th) with an elite 73.9% completion rate (2nd), even if explosiveness lagged (marginal explosiveness 110th). Defensively, Miami fielded one of the ACC’s most complete units, ranking Top 10 nationally in success rate allowed (34.5%, 8th), EPA/play allowed (-0.12, 8th), yards per play allowed (4.51, 8th), and overall third-down defense (29.4%, 9th). The Hurricanes also consistently controlled field position (defensive average starting FP 2nd) and finished drives on both sides of the ball, supporting an average adjusted scoring margin of 21.9 points per game (8th). Ultimately, Miami’s two losses came against quality opponents where offensive explosiveness dipped, but the overall profile was that of a legitimate Top 10 team built on efficiency, defensive disruption (Havoc rate 6th), and steady week-to-week execution rather than volatility. While their pass game was restricted against Texas A&M in round 1 (103 pass yards), a healthy Mark Fletcher spurred on the Canes to rush for 175 yards on 6.3 YPC which was the deciding factor in Miami’s 10-3 rock fight victory.

The Miami Hurricanes Offense

Miami’s offense paired efficiency with ball security, finishing Top 20 nationally in success rate (49.4%, 10th) and EPA per play (0.19, 18th) while producing nearly three points per drive (2.97, 20th). The passing game was the engine, ranking among the nation’s best in completion rate (73.9%, 2nd), EPA per dropback (0.32, 10th), and Total QBR (81.7, 10th), while also limiting negative plays on pass plays (≤0 yards on 30.2%, 2nd). Miami protected the quarterback exceptionally well, allowing pressure on just 1.4% of snaps (2nd) and ranking Top 15 in total blown block rate (18.9%, 13th), which sustained drives despite below-average explosiveness (110th). The main offensive weakness came in the run game’s big-play profile, where yards per rush (4.5, 111th) and yards per successful rush (7.6, 134th) lagged behind an otherwise efficient unit. Miami will hope to sustain the elevated run game effectiveness displayed against Texas A&M last game.

Miami Player to Watch on Offense: QB Carson Beck

Carson Beck delivered a highly efficient 2025 season, completing 74.3% of his passes for 3,175 yards at a strong 8.5 yards per attempt while throwing 26 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. He posted an above-average passing grade of 79.9 which is lower than his grades from the past two seasons at Georgia (81.2, 91.5) Beck consistently keeps the offense on schedule with an adjusted completion rate of 80.9% and a modest average depth of target of 7.3 yards. Beck can be hampered by miscues with 30 turnover-worthy plays over the last two years, but is pretty adept at navigating the pocket, taking a reasonable 10 sacks on 411 dropbacks with a pressure-to-sack rate of 16.1%. While his rushing grade lags well behind his passing production, Beck’s ball placement and efficiency anchored a reliable, high-level passing attack throughout the season.

The Miami Hurricanes Defense

Miami’s defense consistently controlled games, ranking Top 10 nationally in success rate allowed (34.5%, 8th), EPA per play (-0.12, 8th), yards per play (4.51, 8th), and points per drive (1.22, 7th). The pass defense was a major strength, finishing Top 15 in yards per dropback allowed (5.0, 9th) and Total QBR allowed (30.0, 4th). Miami also generated consistent disruption, posting a Top 10 overall Havoc rate (20.9%, 6th) with especially strong DB Havoc (9.5%, 2nd) and pressure rate (42.3%, 4th). The primary concern showed up in tackling consistency, as tackle success rate ranked near the bottom nationally (83.8%, 118th), allowing opponents to extend gains after contact despite sound structural defense.

Miami Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Reuben Bain Jr.

Reuben Bain Jr. anchored Miami’s front alongside fellow Edge Akeem Mesidor, posting a dominant 92.6 overall defensive grade while excelling as both a pass rusher (91.7 PRSH) and run defender (86.7 RDEF). He generated constant disruption with 65 total pressures, 10 sacks, and 52 hurries, pairing power and burst to win early in reps and collapse pockets at a high rate. Bain Jr. also showed finishing ability and physicality against the run with 31 stops and only nine missed tackles on 39 total tackles, reinforcing his reliability on early downs (missed-tackle rate 18.8%). While his coverage usage was minimal, his value was maximized where it mattered most – driving Miami’s havoc and pressure profile as a true difference-maker off the edge.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Head Coach: Ryan Day
2025 Record: 12-1
Offense Ranking: 12
Defense Ranking: 1
Strength of Schedule: 32

Ohio State steamrolled to a 12–1 regular season and an unbeaten Big Ten run, finishing No. 1 in SP+ behind elite balance on both sides of the ball and a résumé that still slightly outperformed expectations despite a narrow loss in the Big Ten title game. The Buckeyes paired a hyper-efficient offense that ranks 1st in success rate, 6th in EPA/play and 4th in points per drive, with a suffocating defense that ranked 1st in SP+. HC Ryan Day’s team consistently controlled games on early downs (offensive standard-down success: 2nd, defensive standard-down success allowed: 9th) and finished drives at an elite level (offensive points per scoring opportunity: 2nd, defensive red-zone TD rate allowed: 2nd). Defensively, Ohio State erased explosives (20+ yard plays allowed: 3rd) while dominating the line of scrimmage and limiting negative plays (defensive EPA/play: 2nd), producing one of the nation’s highest adjusted scoring margins (1st). Even with average special teams (63rd) and a modest schedule strength, the Buckeyes looked every bit like a national title contender, entering the postseason with a scoring margin (+26.8) that trailed almost no one.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Offense

Ohio State’s offense was relentlessly efficient, finishing first nationally in overall success rate (53.8%) and passing efficiency (58.2%) while charting at 6th in EPA/play. The Buckeyes consistently stayed on schedule, ranking first in three-and-out avoidance (13.2%, No. 1) and second on standard downs success rate (57.2%), allowing them to control games despite a slower tempo (63.4 plays per game, 106th). Through the air, Ohio State combined accuracy and explosiveness with a nation-best completion rate (78.0%) and strong efficiency metrics. While the run game was more workmanlike than dominant, the offense still ranked Top 5 in points per drive (3.41) and yards per drive (43.3), underscoring a unit that maximized efficiency and finishing ability rather than raw explosiveness.

OSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Julian Sayin

Ohio State QB Julian Sayin delivered an elite, hyper-efficient season, completing 78.4% of his passes for 3,323 yards at a blistering 9.3 yards per attempt with 31 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He earned an outstanding 93.2 overall PFF grade and a 92.9 passing grade, pairing downfield intent (8.7 aDOT) with excellent accuracy (84.3% adjusted completion rate). Sayin consistently created value while limiting mistakes, posting only a 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate with just six drops (2.1%) undermining his production. Even under pressure, he remained composed and productive, allowing 13 sacks with a manageable 13.7% pressure rate while generating explosive efficiency that firmly established him as one of the most polished quarterbacks in the country.

The Ohio State Buckeyes Defense

Ohio State’s defense set the national standard, ranking first in SP+ defense and posting elite marks in yards per play allowed (3.94, 2nd) and points per drive allowed (2nd). The Buckeyes dominated efficiency downs, finishing Top 10 in defensive success rate (34.7%) and third-down success rate allowed (28.8%). Explosive plays were almost completely erased, with marginal explosiveness allowed (1st) and just 3.7% of snaps conceding 20+ yards (3rd). Red-zone defense was suffocating, as opponents managed touchdowns on only 33.3% of red-zone trips (2nd), reinforcing Ohio State’s profile as the country’s premier field-shrinking, game-controlling unit.

OSU Player to Watch on Defense: Caleb Downs

Safety Caleb Downs delivered an elite season, winning the Thorpe Award and Lott Impact Trophy in addition to being named the B10 Defensive Player of the Year, pairing high-end coverage efficiency with impact playmaking. He logged 52 tackles with a strong 89.7% tackle rate and nine havoc plays while adding splash value as a blitzer, generating three pressures and a sack on limited rushes (20.0% pressure rate on 15 rushes). In coverage, Downs was lights-out, allowing just 8 completions on 20 targets (40.0%) for 58 yards with zero touchdowns, two interceptions, two PBUs, and an absurd 0.20 yards per coverage snap. His PFF grades back it up across the board—84.6 coverage, 82.5 run defense, and 82.1 tackling—cementing Downs as a true difference-maker who erases space, finishes plays, and tilts games from the back end.

Ohio State and Miami: Team Stats and Betting Trends

Ohio State is 10-2-1 ATS this season

Miami is 8-5 ATS this season

The OVER has cashed in 5 of Miami’s 13 games this season

The OVER has cashed in 4 of Ohio State’s 13 games this season

Ohio State officially leads the all-time series against Miami 3-2

Rotoworld Best Bets

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Eric Froton’s Best Bet: Miami RB Mark Fletcher OVER 48.5 Yards Rushing

Miami RB Mark Fletcher had been compromised since sustaining an injury on 11/1 against SMU, missing some time before easing his way back into action with six carries against VT and 10 against Pitt in a 38-7 blowout on 11/29. With three weeks to rest before the CFP Playoff, Fletcher rekindled his early season dominance in devastating fashion, unleashing a 17-carry, 172-yard explosion on Texas A&M in Miami’s close 10-3 land-war victory over the Aggies. With Miami committed to Fletcher as their hammer (only 1 carry given to Gerard Pringle), I expect him to clear his 48.5 Rushing Yards line which is actually up 8 yards from his very reasonable 40.5 Rush Yards opening.

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best Bets our model is projecting for the College Football Playoff between Miami and Ohio State

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.

Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Miami Hurricanes +9.5.

Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 42.5.

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No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami CFP prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

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