Updated Dec. 26, 2025, 6:54 p.m. ET

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (7-6) and Fresno State Bulldogs (8-4) tangle in Saturday’s Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl in Tucson, Arizona. The contest at Arizona Stadium will kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET (CW Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Miami went 6-2 in conference play, tying for second in the Mid-American Conference. The RedHawks are in a bowl game for a program-record sixth consecutive year and are playing in the Arizona Bowl for a second straight December (defeated Colorado State 43-17 last Dec. 28). Since Sept. 27, Miami has gone 7-3 straight up and against the spread (ATS).

Fresno State tied for fifth in the Mountain West Conference, finishing 5-3 in MWC action. The Bulldogs have been a bellwether defense in the MWC for several years and in 2025 yielded just 20.1 points per game (second MWC). On offense, FSU faltered a bit in going 3-3 down the stretch (Oct. 10-Nov. 29) after a 5-1 start. The Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS over their last 4 games.

Miami and Fresno State have never met on the gridiron.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Watch NCAA football on Fubo!Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:57 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Miami +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Fresno State -220 (bet $220 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Miami +5.5 (-110) | Fresno State -5.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State picks and predictionsPrediction

Fresno State 24, Miami (Ohio) 21

No interest; PASS.

Miami is 8-2 across its last 10 December games.

The RedHawks had an odd regular-season quarterback opt-out situation (DeQuan Finn was the starter through Nov. 4), and the resulting QB play was a mixed back. Thomas Gotkowski and Henry Hesson both played in Miami’s most recent game (MAC Championship Game Dec. 6), and neither was impressive. And the Miami offense failed to top 350 yards in each of its last 4 road games away.

Both defenses in this game are quite good. And what the RedHawks did against Fresno State-comp MAC squads — the Toledo Rockets and Western Michigan Broncos (combined 16 points scored) — don’t make for much confidence. But in a defense-leaning matchup, a Miami team with excellent special teams (K Dom Dzioban is 19-of-22 on field goals) and a significant red-zone edge on paper has value getting this many points.

Bulldogs games against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (23-21 FSU win on Sept. 21) and Utah State Aggies (28-17 FSU loss on Nov. 22) don’t bode well on the Fresno side of this equation. The FSU pass defense against the Miami aerial game makes for some explosiveness comparison in the RedHawks’ favor.

Worth noting: Miami coach Chuck Martin is 6-0 ATS in bowl games.

MIAMI +5.5 (-110) is the value side.

Both offenses tend to slow things down, but look for some passing-game big plays and turnover exchange to create just a little more scoring than what is being called for with this low total.

Good weather is expected in Tucson. Fresno State has some key defensive opt-outs with which to deal, and Miami has had a few weeks to reconfigure its offense.

This total opened a click higher. After some early betting brought the total down, the OVER 41.5 (-110) has some pushback leverage. Consider a partial-unit play on a small lean.

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