Dec. 26, 2025, 9:07 a.m. ET

The Miami Heat (15-15) visit the Atlanta Hawks (15-16) Friday. Tip-off from State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, is set for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Heat vs. Hawks odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

2024-25 season series: Miami won 3-2 (including Play-In Tournament)

Miami was routed 112-91 by the Toronto Raptors Tuesday while failing to cover as a 5.5-point home favorite with the Under (227.5) cashing. F Jaime Jaquez Jr. (21 points) and G Norman Powell (17) were the only Miami players to score over 15 points as the Heat struggled to find any offense in the loss. The Heat have lost 9 of their last 11 games, including each of their previous 3 contests.

Atlanta lost 126-123 to the Chicago Bulls Tuesday, failing to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite with the Under (254.5) hitting. The Hawks led by as many as 10 points, but were outscored 34-18 in the final quarter of play to choke away the lead. The Hawks have lost 4 straight.

Watch the NBA on Fubo!Heat at Hawks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:51 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Heat +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Hawks -150 (bet $150 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Heat +2.5 (-105) | Hawks -2.5 (-115)Over/Under (O/U): 248.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Heat at Hawks key injuries

Heat

C/F Bam Adebayo (back) questionableG Tyler Herro (toe) outF Keshad Johnson (illness) questioableF Nikola Jovic (elbow) probableG Pelle Larsson (ankle) probable

Hawks

F/C Mouhamed Gueye (shoulder) questionableF Kristaps Porzingis (illness) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Heat at Hawks picks and predictionsPrediction

Hawks 129, Heat 121

PASS.

With the Hawks not looking like the same team since the return of G Trae Young, the -150 risk isn’t worth it here. Instead, lay the few points for a much better price.

BET HAWKS -2.5 (-115).

The reason Atlanta is currently on a skid is because of its defense, which has given up an average of 135.5 points per game in their last 6 losses. However, in this matchup, that defense won’t be a problem as the Heat have failed to score over 100 points in 2 of their last 4 losses. Look for Atlanta’s offense to be too much for this Heat defense to handle, while the Heat won’t have enough offensively to keep up.

LEAN OVER 248.5 (-105).

The Over has hit in 6 of Atlanta’s last 8 games and is 18-13 for the Hawks this season. For Miami, the Over is 2-1 in its last 3 games. The Over has also hit in all of the last 3 matchups between these squads.

While both units have struggled recently, it’s clear that Miami’s offense is still more dependable than Atlanta’s defense with Young on the court, so look for Miami to put up at least 115 points here to help the Over.

This is a lean because the Under is 7-3 in Miami’s last 10 games.

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