Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Friday’s NBA matchup between the Hawks and Heat.
The NBA stopped to center stage of the sports world on Christmas, and delivered with its product. But the grind of the season is just hitting its stride, with nine games of action taking place tonight.
Facing off in an Eastern Conference matchup, the Miami Heat will face the Atlanta Hawks. These teams currently sit in eighth and ninth place in the conference, and this is the first matchup between them this season.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Hawks enter as 3.5-point favorites and hold -162 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat hold +136 odds of winning outright, with the game total set at O/U 247.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for Friday night’s matchup.
Heat at Hawks preview
The Heat have dropped to 15-15 on the season after a strong start. They are looking to snap a three-game losing streak and have lost eight of their last nine. Miami is 16-14 against the spread, and the under has cashed in 16 of 30 games.
Bam Adebayo has been downgraded to doubtful for the matchup due to a back injury. Tyler Herro has been ruled out due to his toe issue, Keshad Johnson is questionable, and Nikola Jovic and Pelle Larsson are both probable. Norman Powell headlines the production for Miami, posting averages of 23.7 points and 3.9 rebounds per game. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has had a resurgent season, averaging 15.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.7 assists. Andrew Wiggins adds 15.8 points and 4.7 rebounds, while Kel’el Ware has shown encouraging growth with 12.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game.
As a team, the Heat are scoring 119.2 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Miami leads the NBA in pace, ranks 19th in offensive rating, 14th in field goal percentage, and seventh in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 117.6 points per game, which ranks 20th in the NBA. The Heat rank fifth in defensive rating, fourth in opponents’ field goal percentage, and sixth in opponents’ three-point percentage.
It has been a strange season for Atlanta, with some big picture questions looming in the future. The Hawks hold a 15-16 record, which puts them in ninth place in the Eastern Conference. They are looking to snap a four-game losing streak and have lost eight of their past 10 matchups. The Hawks are 14-17 against the spread with the over cashing in 18 of 31 games.
Trae Young has battled injuries this year and posted averages of 19.3 points and 9.7 assists. In his absence, Jalen Johnson has stepped up as the team’s star, averaging 23.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 8.3 assists per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has impressed in his first season with the team, averaging 20.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. Onyeka Okongwu, Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Vit Krejci, and Luke Kennard round out most of their rotation. Kristaps Porzingis, N’Faly Dante, and Eli John Ndiaye are ruled out for the matchup due to injury.
Atlanta is averaging 118.8 points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. They are producing the 13th-best offensive rating, rank seventh in field goal percentage, fifth in three-point percentage, and fourth in pace. Defensively, opponents are scoring 119.6 points per game against the Hawks. This ranks 24th, and Atlanta has the 17th-best defensive rating, ranks 23rd in opponents’ field goal percentage, and 18th in opponents’ three-point percentage.
Heat at Hawks prediction, best Bet
Both these teams like to push the pace and are vulnerable defensively. My lean is toward the over for this matchup. While 247.5 is a high game total, the Hawks are coming off back-to-back losses to the Bulls, which both went over this total. This includes Sunday’s matchup, which finished 152-150 without going to overtime.
But I am backing the Hawks to get the victory and cover the 3.5-point spread. Neither of these teams arrives in great form, with just three combined wins over their past 19 games. But I’d expect Jalen Johnson to shine as the best player on the floor, especially with Tyler Herro out and Bam Adebayo likely to miss. There are levels of improvement that Atlanta can still achieve, while Miami feels like it has come back down to earth after an impressive start to the year. The Hawks will be able to match the Heat’s pace-and-space style on offense. They also have more size and athleticism, which will prove to be bothersome on the defensive side of the ball.