With Christmas in the books and a calendar flip on the horizon, the NFL turns from red robes to resolutions. This weekend’s results help shape 2026 outlooks — for forthcoming playoff dates in January and February, then the long offseason that follows.

Through 16 weeks, we’ve been ranking NFL Sunday slates by different factors and themes. This one gets a New Year’s twist. The matchups listed below pair teams with similar big-picture motivations. This Sunday’s schedule is a bit lighter, given the three Thursday games and Saturday doubleheader. Bangers abound anyway. Here are the shared aspirations to check for, from Super Bowl hopefuls to Tankathon stragglers.

All times ET and all game odds via BetMGM.

Week 17 Sunday viewing guide

Watching in person? Get tickets on StubHub.

GameTimeTVStreaming

Jaguars at Colts

1 p.m.

Fox

Seahawks at Panthers

1 p.m.

CBS

Giants at Raiders

4:05 p.m.

CBS

Eagles at Bills

4:25 p.m.

Fox

Bears at 49ers

8:20 p.m.

NBC

Peacock

In-market CBS and Fox games are free over the air. “Sunday Night Football” is a national broadcast, and NBC is also free over the air.

5. New York Giants (2-13) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-13)

Resolution: Get the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft

The game itself could be a tough watch. New York starts this week at 23rd in points per game and 28th in points allowed. Las Vegas counters with league-worst marks for scoring offense and third-down defense. Both sidelines carry humiliating nine-game losing streaks. It’s the Spider-Man pointing meme, except the meeting is in the sewer.

Future implications are enormous, though. The loser of Sunday’s race to the bottom takes pole position in the NFL draft order. The victor joins a glut of three-win teams. Alternate timelines unfurl in hyperspeed. These Raiders could reset with a first-pick franchise quarterback. Geno Smith has been an interception carousel and contract albatross, while Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza would look bespoke in silver and black. The Giants are building around Jaxson Dart under center, but they could add an impact star in protection or pass coverage. Consequences are as far-reaching as Brian Burns’ wingspan.

The front offices agree — leave 2025 in the past, slash-and-burn for 2026 onward.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4) at Indianapolis Colts (8-7)

Resolution: Stake a long-term claim to the AFC South

In recent years, the AFC South has been something of an in-joke punchline, bleakness at the bottom of a “TNF” funhouse. But 2025 is putting a swift end to all that noise. Before it was besieged by injuries, Indianapolis jumped out to league-best offense and an 8-2 opening. Even with their bubble-wrapped question mark at QB, the Colts are set to contend again down the road. They have the gold-standard running back in Jonathan Taylor, a potential top-10 offensive line and multiple win-now cornerbacks (Sauce Gardner, Charvarius Ward).

Meanwhile, Duval’s delegates are going for it all, right here and right now. They’ve clinched a playoff berth already, and still have a chance at the No. 1 seed if they win out. Trevor Lawrence is on the prowl, with MVP-level dynamics across six straight wins. Liam Coen’s crew made a megaphone statement in their road defeat of the conference-leading Denver Broncos last Sunday:

Elite throw + elite catch 🎯@BrentonStrange | #JAXvsDEN on FOX https://t.co/l0E6OVCklN pic.twitter.com/LHSJGgKtXm

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 21, 2025

Each team needs to keep building out as the Houston Texans lurk from southern shadows. Houston went from 0-3 to 10-5 off its world-shattering defense. And the Texans are in line for sustained success — CJ Stroud, Will Anderson and Derek Stingley Jr. are all 24 years old. The surging Jags have an advantage on the bruised Colts this Sunday, but for the longview, these two must maintain pace in a division that’s suddenly stacked.

3. Seattle Seahawks (12-3) at Carolina Panthers (8-7)

Resolution: Find WR2 before it’s too late

A second wideout is first priority for these opponents. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a money-in-the-bank cornerstone for Seattle. He leads the NFL in receiving yards and scrimmage yards per touch through just his third pro season. There’s room for him to grow in the Mike Macdonald-Klint Kubiak system, too. The route-running looks pristine; the vertical release is tall-building, single-bound stuff. Imagine what JSN could do with a viable second Seahawk out wide. As it stands, late-career Cooper Kupp (39.9 yards per game) and midseason addition Rashid Shaheed (25.4 ypg) don’t command extra coverage.

He’s not at Smith-Njigba level quite yet, but rookie Tetairoa McMillan is on the Pro Bowl path. Carolina’s catch-all has five touchdown grabs in his last five games, and his 6-foot-5 frame sets off glaring mismatches. Opposing defenses can fixate on him because neither Jalen Coker (36.8 yards per game) nor Xavier Legette (26 ypg) scare them. Per Next Gen Stats, Smith-Njigba and McMillan have the two largest shares of team air yards.

The game itself should be main-screen awesome. Both teams hit Week 17 as division leaders. Seattle is in the postseason no matter what, but its seeding is far from fixed. Two wins secures the first-round bye, but one loss could mean the No. 6 wild card spot. If Carolina stumbles Sunday, it might have to face an all-or-nothing finale at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s time for someone’s second target to step up for the stretch run.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5) at Buffalo Bills (11-4)

Resolution: Fix the ground game struggles

Playoff stakes are relatively static for this Orchard Park marquee. Philadelphia has already clinched its division, and five losses put it behind the NFC West and North leaders. Buffalo is locked into the bracket, but it needs outside help to finish atop the AFC East. Rather, this is a chance for either the Eagles or Bills to stack late momentum. It’s also exposure therapy for their biggest weaknesses.

Buffalo cannot stop the run whatsoever. Through 15 games, it’s 30th in ground yards allowed and last in touchdowns surrendered, on a deflating 5.4 yards per attempt. The hosts gave up 246 yards to New England Patriots rushers in Week 15, then another 160 to the Cleveland Browns last weekend — and they won both matchups. Great as Josh Allen and his offense is, the Bills will be a knockout liability with such porous front lines.

Now for the inverse. Philly can’t run the ball with any consistency. Saquon Barkley reworked physics as Offensive Player of the Year in 2024. He’s below league averages for rushing efficiency and success rate in 2025, even after a Week 16 breakout. The backfield depth behind Barkley is gone. The “Tush Push” around Jalen Hurt is less effective than ever.

Sunday forecast calls for cold air and a slippery field. Who will get this thing sorted before the January gauntlet?

1. Chicago Bears (11-4) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4)

Resolution: Host the NFC’s path to Super Bowl LX

Both “Sunday Night Football” participants are putting together unforgettable, cinematic seasons. Chicago keeps surviving thrillers with the heroics of its second-year QB and the fearlessness of its first-year head coach. Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson can clinch the NFC North with a W on Sunday; their Bears are in play for the top seed with a 2-0 closeout. San Francisco is stampeding despite its slew of season-ending injuries and misfortunes. Like the rival Seahawks, these Niners can slide into the conference’s top seed with two more wins. Kyle Shanahan is working magic in motion, as he’s known to do:

Talk about perfect placement 👌

📺: ESPN
NFL+// https://t.co/Zkva0Y3j2j pic.twitter.com/GkmTUSzX71

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 23, 2025

A playoff game in Chicago would bring freezing temperatures and Williams’ No. 1 pick swagger as “The Ice Man.” A playoff game in Santa Clara would bring warmer winds and Brock Purdy’s understated heat as “Mr. Relevant.” The Bears defense collects turnovers like no other in the sport; the 49ers concede those flash risks for more long-term postseason steadiness. It’s a pair of improbable and contrasting forces to wrap up the Sunday action. The rest of the NFC watches in fascination.

Updated Week 17 odds

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