Brendan O’Sullivan takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for NFL Week 17’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins.
It’s a Florida battle in Week 17 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Miami Dolphins. Miami is eliminated from postseason contention and is giving rookie Quinn Ewers the start under center. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are rolling with Baker Mayfield as they aim for the postseason.
Tampa Bay is a 5.5-point favorite and -285 on the moneyline, while Miami is +230 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 44.5 points.
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Sunday’s Buccaneers vs. Dolphins matchup.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins prediction, preview
The Buccaneers started the season 5-1, with their only loss coming against the Eagles. These weren’t cheap wins either, as they defeated the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers during this stretch. Then the losses began piling up, and the Buccaneers are 7-8, losing six of their last seven games.
Because it’s the NFC South, a losing streak like this hasn’t buried Tampa Bay. In fact, the team could still win the division. A victory this week is necessary, as the Panthers lead the division by one game heading into Week 17. If the Panthers win, and the Buccaneers lose, Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes are over. However, if both teams win, the division title comes down to a head-to-head matchup in Week 18.
All this to say that the Buccaneers will be playing hard this week. The Dolphins, however, may take it easy. They’re eliminated from the postseason and are giving the ball to Ewers for his second consecutive start. The rookie started Week 16, completing 20-of-30 passes for 260 yards and two interceptions. Ewers will remain competitive as he’s attempting to prove he’s a starting-caliber quarterback. The veterans, however, may not play with as much intention as their season is almost over.
That being said, there are very few teams that purposefully lose games in the NFL. Even the worst squads have players trying hard, even if it means the optimal draft order gets ruined. Miami is 6-9, so a top draft pick isn’t in discussion here, which makes it even more likely the team gives Tampa Bay a competitive game.
If this game occurred earlier this year, it may be a dominant showing from Tampa Bay. Mayfield was an MVP candidate through the first few weeks. That’s not the case anymore, and the Buccaneers are cold at the worst time.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins pick, best bet
The Buccaneers aren’t playing inspiring football, and it’ll likely cost them the division, but they should still win this game. Despite a poor stretch overall, the defense is still playing well. It’s held the Panthers to 23, Falcons to 29, Saints 24 and Cardinals to 17 in the past four weeks.
Sure, these aren’t the most impressive teams, but neither are the Dolphins. Ewers is making his second career start, and his first was underwhelming considering it was against one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
It hasn’t been a good run for Tampa Bay, but this is a perfect opportunity to bounce back ahead of a must-win Week 18 matchup.