Quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are primed to win their first AFC South title since 2022. By defeating the Indianapolis Colts 23-17 and pushing their record to 12-4 on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, the Jaguars maintained their one-game lead over the Houston Texans (11-5) and now only need to beat the lowly Tennessee Titans in Week 18 to lock up the division crown.

If they lose to Tennessee, however, a Texans win over the Colts in Week 18 would make the Texans the division winners for a third straight season, so there will be plenty on the line next week.

As for this week, the Jaguars rode an excellent performance by their defense to victory over Indianapolis. The Jaguars sacked Philip Rivers twice, intercepted him once and limited the Colts to 204 yards of offense and just 4.1 yards per play.

On offense, Lawrence was a little uneven through the air, though he racked up 263 yards on 23-of-37 passing, but the performance also included one bad end-zone interception and a couple of other near-picks. But Lawrence more than made up for any deficiencies as a passer Sunday with his legs, rushing for 26 yards and both of the Jaguars’ touchdowns.

Running back Travis Etienne chipped in 76 yards on 17 carries, while Parker Washington finished with a game-high eight receptions for 115 yards.

While it would be a long shot, the Jaguars still have a chance at winning the AFC’s No. 1 seed, but they would need to win and have both the 13-win Broncos and Patriots lose next week.

As for the Colts, who lost their sixth straight game Sunday and fell to 8-8, their season effectively ended Saturday when the Texans officially eliminated them from playoff contention by beating the Los Angeles Chargers.

It’s been an incredible collapse for the Colts, who started the season 7-1. Injuries, including an Achilles tear for starting quarterback Daniel Jones in Week 14, can certainly be blamed, but their fall from AFC contenders to out of the playoffs has been nonetheless stunning.

Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, only five teams had won seven of their first eight games and missed the playoffs. The Colts became the sixth. The Colts’ playoff odds were as high as 98 percent in Week 10, according to The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, and they were in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Now, the Colts are left on the outside looking in for the fifth straight season.

Making matters worse, they traded their 2026 first-round pick to the New York Jets at the trade deadline for cornerback Sauce Gardner. That means that all this losing won’t even benefit them come April’s NFL Draft. Needless to say, it’s been a tough season in Indianapolis.

Lawrence does just enough

Lawrence had been on fire in his last four starts entering Sunday. The 2021 No. 1 pick had racked up 14 total touchdowns with zero turnovers during that span, but he regressed a bit against the Colts. Lawrence’s brutal interception in the end zone at the end of the second quarter left Jacksonville trailing 10-7 at halftime.

The Jaguars rebounded in the second half. Lawrence scored on a 6-yard run in the third quarter. Then, when facing a huge fourth-and-1 from the Colts’ 39-yard line with two minutes left in the game, Lawrence gained 3 yards on a QB sneak that ultimately led to a 53-yard field goal by Cam Little that gave Jacksonville a 23-17 lead with 18 seconds left. Lawrence may have only had 26 rushing yards, but his legs proved to be the difference Sunday. — James Boyd, Colts beat writer

Grandpa Rivers’ final start?

In what might have been Rivers’ final NFL start, the 44-year-old delivered an up-and-down performance Sunday. Rivers finished 17-of-30 passing for 147 yards, one touchdown against one interception, while also being sacked twice. Rivers has thrown at least one TD and one interception in all three of his starts since coming out of a nearly five-year retirement. The eight-time Pro Bowler threw a 5-yard TD pass to tight end Mo Alie-Cox in the third quarter that gave Indy a 17-14 lead. It also marked Rivers’ 425th passing TD, which is the sixth-most in NFL history. However, Rivers was picked off by Jaguars cornerback Jarrian Jones in the fourth quarter, and that turnover resulted in a 42-yard field goal by Little that gave Jacksonville a three-point lead it never relinquished.

Rivers still needs 104 passing yards to surpass Ben Roethlisberger for sixth all-time in career passing yards, though he may not get the chance. Colts coach Shane Steichen confirmed last week that Rivers would start Sunday regardless of the team’s playoff hopes because, at the time, Indianapolis still had a chance to make the postseason. But now that Indianapolis is on the outside looking in, it may behoove the franchise to get a closer look at rookie sixth-round pick Riley Leonard (or 2023 No. 4 pick Anthony Richardson, if he can return from his eye injury) in the regular-season finale against the Texans.

Trailing by six points with four seconds left, Leonard subbed in for Rivers on the final play of the game to throw a Hail Mary. The rookie was intercepted in the end zone by Jaguars safety Antonio Jackson. — Boyd

Colts’ big picture questions

The Colts’ six-game losing streak is one shy of a franchise record for the most consecutive losses to end a season. They are also the first team in 30 years to start the season 8-2 and miss the playoffs, per The Associated Press. Indy’s principal owner, Carlie Irsay-Gordon, will have some big personnel decisions to make regarding who stays and who goes as the offseason creeps closer. General manager Chris Ballard, who is now 70-77-1 in nine seasons after Sunday’s loss, is atop that list. The Colts have not won the AFC South during his tenure. Meanwhile, coach Shane Steichen is 25-25 in three seasons with zero playoff berths, and Indy doesn’t have a clear answer at QB with starter Daniel Jones set to become an unrestricted free agent while also rehabbing his torn right Achilles. — Boyd