Dec. 30, 2025, 6:21 p.m. ET

The Miami Hurricanes (11-2) and Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) meet Wednesday in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic. Kickoff at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NCAA football odds around the Miami vs. Ohio State odds and make our expert college football picks and predictions for the best bets.

Technically, the all-time series is considered 2-2, as Ohio State has a vacated 2010 win. The last time these teams met was in 2011 when the Hurricanes won 24-6 at Hard Rock Stadium. These teams met for the national championship at the Fiesta Bowl on Jan. 3, 2003, with the Buckeyes winning 31-24 in 2 OT as a 2-TD underdog in a controversial ending.

Miami posted a 10-3 win at the Texas A&M Aggies in the CFP first round, cashing as 3-point underdogs as the Under (48.5) cashed. The Hurricanes piled up 175 rushing yards, with 103 passing yards, while limiting the Aggies to 89 rushing yards with 7 sacks. Texas A&M also had a minus-2 in the turnover department to hamper its efforts.

Hurricanes QB Carson Beck completed 14-of-20 passes for 103 yards, 1 TD and 0 INTs, while RB Mark Fletcher Jr. picked up the slack with 172 yards on 17 carries. WR Malachi Toney had 5 grabs for 22 yards and the game’s only TD. NFL prospect DL Rueben Bain Jr. had 3 of the team’s 7 total sacks.

Since a 26-20 OT loss at the SMU Mustangs Nov. 1, Miami has won 5 in a row, while covering 3 of the past 4 outings. The Under has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games, too.

Ohio State, the defending national champion, earned a first-round bye with the No. 2 seed despite a 13-10 loss to Indiana last time out in the Big Ten Championship Game. The only Ohio State TD was a 9-yard pass from QB Julian Sayin to WR Carnell Tate in the first quarter. That halted a 3-game ATS win streak, although the Buckeyes are still 10-2-1 ATS this season. The Under has cashed in 3 in a row, and 6-2 in the past 8 outings.

– Rankings: US LBM Coaches Poll, conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports

Watch NCAA football on Fubo!Miami vs. Ohio State odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 6:19 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Miami +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Ohio State -350 (bet $350 to win $100)Against the spread (ATS): Miami +9.5 (-110) | Ohio State -9.5 (-110)Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)Miami vs. Ohio State picks and predictionsPrediction

Ohio State 20, Miami 12

Ohio State (-350) will cost you 3 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

Miami barely escaped windy College Station against Texas A&M in a low-scoring defensive slog. The winds affected both sides, yes, but it was also surprising to see the lack of offense for Miami. A&M’s calling card wasn’t exactly on the defensive side of the ball.

PASS.

Back MIAMI +9.5 (-110) catching nearly double digits.

While Beck is prone to miscues, and that’s bad against a suffocating defense like Ohio State, Miami knows a thing or two about defense, too. The Hurricanes allowed just 13.0 points per game, ranking No. 4 in the nation, so the struggles should go both ways. With top-tier defenses on both sides, a spread of near 10 is way too much.

UNDER 40.5 (-105) might be the best play on the board, even though this is a very low number in this day and age of fast-paced football.

Miami and Ohio State are old school, playing nasty defense, while the offenses have been so-so against top-notch competition. The difference might be in the passing game, as Miami did allow 194.5 yards per game through the air. That’s not much, but it’s the difference. Tate and fellow WRs Jeremiah Smith and Brandon Inniss should be able to do enough, but, again, don’t expect a track meet.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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