Ohio State’s loss to Miami shook up the College Football Playoff and paved the way for a new favorite. That is the Indiana Hoosiers. Yes, the same Indiana Hoosiers that until Thursday had not won a bowl game since 1991.
Indiana was the favorite to win the national title as soon as Ohio State was knocked out, but IU’s demolition of Alabama cemented the No. 1 team in the land’s standing among the final four teams. The Hoosiers currently sit at +130 to win it all on BetMGM.
With Georgia also out, Oregon and Miami are tied for second in the odds at +300. Indiana and Miami are favored in the two semifinals, but Oregon is still given the same odds as Miami to win the title.
Ole Miss is the long shot of the four remaining teams at +600.
National title oddsNo. 1 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon
If you look up in the sky, you could see Indiana fans who are so happy they’ve discovered how to float. Indiana football was one of the worst programs in the sport for a century and celebrated its first game ever as a No. 1 team by winning the Rose Bowl against Alabama, the premier program in the sport for the past decade-plus, by 35 points. It doesn’t get more perfect than that for Hoosier fans, other than a national title. Indiana looked every bit the part of a national title favorite and No. 1 team, even if tougher teams than Alabama are ahead.
The thing is, for as good as Indiana looked against Alabama, Oregon looked very impressive against Texas Tech as well. The Ducks’ defense was utterly dominant against the Red Raiders, and the offense did enough against a stout Tech defense that was hung out to dry in a 23-0 defeat.
This is the fourth rematch of this playoff. Two of the first three had the opposite result from the first game (Ole Miss beat Tulane twice, but Ole Miss got even with Georgia, and Alabama did the same against Oklahoma). Including six conference championship games that were rematches from earlier in the season, there have been nine rematches this season, and the team that won the first game is 3-6 in those nine.
That’s not a good trend for Indiana, which won 30-20 in Eugene in October. IU is also the only team in two years of the 12-team playoff to win a CFP quarterfinal after receiving a first-round bye, so trend-busting is not new to this group.
Against Oregon in October, Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza had a relatively quiet game with 215 yards, one touchdown and a pick-six on 20-of-31 passing. It was the IU defense that took the starring role, similar to its performance against Alabama. The Hoosiers kept Dante Moore to 186 passing yards and picked him off twice. Oregon has looked better in the second half of the season than it did at that point, but Indiana still enters as the favorite.
Oregon was a 7-point favorite in the first matchup, but IU is a 4-point favorite in the semifinal.
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 10 Miami
We don’t get Carson Beck against his former team. Instead, we get two teams that pulled off sizable upsets in the quarterfinals. Ole Miss was a 6-point underdog against Georgia, and Miami was a 7.5-point underdog against Ohio State.
Miami comes into this matchup as the hot hand and the favorite, as the Hurricanes are 3-point favorites.
Miami’s defense has looked lethal in two playoff wins. The Hurricanes held Texas A&M to three points and forced three turnovers on the road, and then had five sacks and two interceptions of Julian Sayin in a 24-14 quarterfinal upset win against Ohio State. Miami has allowed fewer than 20 points in each of its last six games.
The Miami defense appears to be peaking right now, but so does Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. He couldn’t miss for much of the Rebels’ second-half rally and finished with 362 passing yards against Georgia. That means this matchup features the hottest defense against the hottest quarterback. Sounds fun.
At the start of the Playoff, there were massive question marks surrounding both of these teams. How would Ole Miss handle the drama and changes around Lane Kiffin’s departure? Did Miami even belong? So far, the answer to both has been a resounding yes.
On the national title picture, it appears the winner of this game would be the underdog against either Indiana or Oregon. While the Ducks and Miami have the same national title odds, Miami is favored to win its semifinal while Oregon is not, so an odds tie for the ultimate title implies Oregon would be favored in a head-to-head.