Florida played well enough to beat Mississippi State for three quarters, but a series of bizarre playcalls and a porous secondary led to a nail-biting fourth quarter on Saturday, ultimately ending in a 23-21 Gators win.

The Bulldogs had the ball in field goal range with less than two minutes remaining and had just converted a first down. Even if Florida stopped them three times and forced a field goal, the Gators would be down by three with little time to do the same. Instead, Blake Shapen — who had mostly carved up the backups and reserves holding down Florida’s secondary — threw the ball right into the chest of defensive lineman Michai Boireau.

Billy Napier’s job might be safe for another day, but he did everything in his power to get the axe tonight. In the penultimate possession, Florida needed a first down to seal the win. On 3rd-and-long, DJ Lagway took off, scrambling to his right. It might not have been a designed run, but Lagway played it that way and didn’t look down the field after seeing his close targets defended. It felt just like the South Florida game, but Boireau saved the day.

There are still many questions about this Florida team, and the offense in particular. Something isn’t right with Lagway. He’s off target more than a five-star quarterback should be, and he’s no longer a mobile threat. Yes, he makes an exceptional throw every now and then, but the consistency isn’t there. Lagway finished the day 20-for-34 with 280 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Jadan Baugh continues to be the saving grace in Florida’s backfield. He went for 150 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The transfer portal might be calling his name if this keeps up, but all of Gator Nation wants to see him finish his college career in Orange and Blue.

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Vernell Brown III (arm) and Aidan Mizell (leg) both left the game with injuries and returned to the sidelines with a sling/boot. Taking away weapons from Lagway is going to hurt the passing game and running game. There has to be some threat in the air to succeed on the ground.

Lastly, the defense had a nice bounce-back performance. Things looked bad after Mississippi State ran down the field for a score on its first drive, but it took until the fourth quarter for the Bulldogs to score again. Too many injuries have hurt this secondary, but the guys up front are starting to pick up the slack.

MICHAI BOIREAU CALLED GAME (Florida 23, MSU 21 | FINAL)

This game was over….

Mississippi State was in field goal range and simply needed to burn Florida’s timeouts to win it. Instead, Blake Shapen made a disastrous mistake. He tried to dump it off short and didn’t see defensive lineman Michai Boireau dropping back. The big man went up and came down with it.

Exhale.

Talk about snatching victory from the claws of defeat.

Billy Napier should be tirelessly working on an NIL deal for Boireau if he’s still the head coach on Monday.

Not again… (Florida 23, MSU 21 | Q4 | 1:38)

Lagway got sacked on a nothing play for a three-and-out. Mississippi State will get the ball and can win on a kick as time expires. Why is every week like this?

This isn’t going to be easy, is it? (Florida 23, MSU 21 | Q4 | 2:32)

Mississippi State needed a touchdown to have a chance, and Florida’s defense was too battered and tired to stop them. Shapen has no fear on some of these deep balls, and a 25-yard run after catch shows that the Gators are losing steam. The offense is going to have to win on the field.

This drive took longer than it needed, thanks to a pair of reviews. The Bulldogs had a touchdown called back, but there was no doubt on Davon Booth’s two-yard punch up the middle.

DJ Lagway and Co. can win it here witha first down or two.

Smack hitting from deep (Florida 23, MSU 14 | Q4 | 6:45)

Florida had two jobs this drive: score some points and kill some clock. They got both done.

It wasn’t pretty. DJ Lagway found Hayden Hansen for eight and Jadan Baugh pushed it up the middle for a first down. Then, Mississippi State ran into penalties. First, a personal foul (blindside block) for 15 yards and a first, and then a roughing the passer that left Lagway on the ground for a bit. Thankfully, he got up and found 10 yards before Trey Smack came out for another 50-plus yarder.

Smack already hit from 54 earlier, and he was just as good from 53 yards out. Whatever happened that first week with him is way back in the rearview mirror now.

Mississippi State making it interesting (Florida 20, MSU 14 | Q4 | 11:57)

No need for a long wait this time.

The Bulldogs went 65 yards down the field in five plays to make it a six-point game again. The bulk of the work came on a 46-yard connection between Blake Shapen and Brenen Thompson. Shapen has attacked Florida’s banged-up secondary all day long. Everyone knows the Gators are missing corners and safeties, so expect a lot of this for the rest of the year. If Mississippi State can do it successfully, imagine what Georgia will do.

After the big gain, Florida tried to hold MSU to a field goal. No dice. Davon Booth ran it into the end zone. Any score for Florida puts the Gators in a great position as time dwindles away.

KD Daniels, welcome to the touchdown club (Florida 20, MSU 7 | Q4 | 13:41)

Okay, that was a long break, but Florida just scored to finish off its longest drive of the season — 11 plays, 93 yards. Finishing with three points would have been demoralizing, even if it made it a two-score game. Before we go into the drive, clap it up for the Gators’ defense. Since that score on the opening drive, eight drives have ended in zero points.

Who else but Jadan Baugh got things started for Florida. Back-to-back rushes of 10-plus yards moved the Gators out of their own red zone. Baugh nearly broke one for a massive gain, but he still did his job. Lagway connected three times with three different receivers to move the ball across the 50-yard line — Vernell Brown III for nine, J. Michael Sturdivant for 19 (good to see him invovled) and TJ Abrams for a 26-yarder tip-toe catch. Abrams doesn’t get a ton of snaps, but he will get more after that catch.

A whole lot of nothing… (Florida 13, MSU 7 | Q3 | 8:21)

Florida went three-and-out. Then, Mississippi State one-upped them by netting a two-yard loss on three plays. You could credit the defense here, but the offense wasn’t sharp for either side.The Gators moved the chains twice after getting the ball back — courtesy of a 12-yard Dallas Wilson catch and 18-yard Vernell Brown III gain. Almost half of those yards came after the catch. A sack stopped the drive dead in its tracks, and Tommy Doman came out for another punt.

Pushed too hard before the half (Florida 13, MSU 7 | HT)

Lagway threw another interception as Florida tried to quickly get down field and add some more points. It’s not quite clear what’s causing these turnover issues for Lagway, but he seems to push a bit too hard whenever the clock gets tight. Billy Napier has been criticized for his late-game clock management. Adding in an overeager QB to that mix is a problem.

No harm done, though. Florida made the stop and to halftime we go!

Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades (Florida 13, MSU 7| Q2 | 1:36)

Blake Shapen gave Mississippi State a chance to score before the half, but he went long on a couple of throws after picking up a huge 47-yard chunk play.

The kick went over the right upright, but officials waved it off, saying it went wide. The Bulldogs protested, but there’s not a way to change that.

For once, the football gods are smiling on the Gators.

Billy ball at its finest (Florida 13, MSU 7| Q2 | 3:08)

After the teams traded interceptions, Florida drove down the field from its own 16 to the Mississippi 15.

Baugh had a nice 12-yard gain, Lagway found VB3 and Amir Jackson for two more first downs and KD Daniels was serviceable in a backup role for the first time this year. However, all of that good led to a field goal.

Lagway took off on 3rd-and-7 because that was the play call? Everyone was lost and assumed Napier was treating the situation as four-down territory. It’s bold but acceptable to push the envelope early, but Billy Napier called out is field goal unit, leaving everyone scratching their head.

To rub salt in the wound, a delay of game and hands to the face penalty sent Florida back 25 yards. Trey Smack made it from 33, 38 and 53 but only the last one counted…

Welcome back, Gators defense (Florida 10, MSU 7| Q2 | 8:39)

Forcing a punt after a touchdown is an easy way to make sure momentum stays on your side, and Florida’ defense has found some life again.

It’s a good thing that was a short drive, too, as Lagway promptly threw an interception on his second throw — the first was a 50-yard gain to VB3, but that’s less exciting after a turnover.

Florida’s well-rested defense answered with a turnover of their own. Poor ball security led to an easy fumble from MSU’s running back. Jayden Woods, a freshman, came away with it.

Baugh finds pay dirt for Florida (Florida 10, MSU 7 | Q2 | 14:15)

Florida needed a touchdown to turn the tide, and Jadan Baugh delivered. He capped off a 6-play, 69-yard drive with a 19-yard touchdown. Florida faked an end around motion and Baugh punched it off the right guard for the score.

Phew!

Gator Nation can hold stop holding its breath. The start was rough, but things are turning around.

Jaden Robinson stops ‘em on 4th (MSU 7, Florida 7 | Q1 | 1:33)

Mississippi State pushed forward on the ground for a first down, but Florida’s defense eventually grew wise to it. Still, it took a big fourth down stop for Jaden Robinson — MSU brought in that big QB again.

It looks like the Bulldogs went for a kill shot early, but that could backfire if DJ Lagway leads Florida down the field and takes the lead.

This is more what we expected (MSU 7, Florida 3 | Q1 | 4:23)

Both teams punted on their second drive. Mississippi State got a couple of first down, at least, but Florida went three and out. So far, the momentum is not on the Gators’ side.

The Bulldogs take over on their own 40-yard line.

What did they see? (MSU 7, Florida 3 | Q1 | 8:57)

Florida responded with a touchdown, but the referees called it back, saying Hayden Hansen didn’t control the catch as he crashed into the end zone. A review seemingly proved otherwise, but because the call on the field was a dropped ball, there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn it.

The good news is DJ Lagway made a couple of strong throws, and the drive was overall sound.

Not a good start (MSU 7, Florida 0 | Q1 | 12:47)

It looks like Florida’s defensive woes will continue against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs ripped a 48-yard completion down the left side of the field on the second play of the game.

Steady gains inside the red zone set up third and goal. MSU brought in a big-bodied quarterback for the snap, and he powered his way by Florida’s defense for a quick score.

It’s too early for doom, but Billy Napier should be nervous.

Stream Florida vs Mississippi State with FREE Fubo trialWhat channel is Florida vs Mississippi State on today?TV Channel: SEC NetworkLivestream:Fubo (free trial)

Florida vs Mississippi State will be broadcast nationally on the SEC Network in Week 8 of the 2025 college football season. Dave Neal and Fozzy Whitaker will call the game from the booth at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, with Morgan Uber reporting from the sidelines. Streaming options for the game include FUBO, which offers a free trial to new subscribers

Florida vs Mississippi State time todayDate: Saturday, Oct. 18Start time: 4:15 p.m. ET

The Florida vs Mississippi State game starts at 4:15 p.m. ET from inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida.

Florida vs Mississippi State betting odds for Week 8

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Friday, Oct. 17

Moneyline: +280 / -350Spread: Florida by 9.5Over/under: 51.5Watch Florida vs Mississippi State on Fubo with FREE trialFlorida vs. Mississippi State predictions, picks for Week 8

“The Bulldogs are not at the same level as either of the Texas teams Napier and Co. have faced so far, and with the home crowd behind them, I expect the Orange and Blue to cruise to victory.” — Adam Dubbin

PREDICTION: Florida 34, Miss. St. 13

“Play calling needs to change, yes, but winning at the line of scrimmage is more important. The Gators will get it done this week and DJ Lagway is going to explode. He’s ready.” — David Rosenberg

PREDICTION: Florida 31, MSU 17

“Florida’s defense should be able to pressure Mississippi State just enough to swing a few key drives. It’s not a blowout, but Florida finds a way to finish this one and get back on track.” — Aidan Gallardo

PREDICTION: Florida 27, Mississippi State 21

Read Gators Wire’s full Week 8 predictions

Florida vs Mississippi State game notesFlorida is coming off its first four-game stretch against four top-10 opponents in team history, as the Gators became the first team in college football to do so since Northwestern and Illinois in 1968;Three of Florida’s remaining five games after Week 8 are against AP Top-11 opponents;Week 8 marks the 57th meeting between Florida and Mississippi State, including the 29th matchup in Gainesville;Florida has won two games in a row vs. the Bulldogs after a 45-28 win in Starkville on Sept. 21 of last season, featuring wins in 16 of the last 17 in Gainesville.

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