Brendan O’Sullivan takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for NFL Week 18’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.
All but two playoff spots are solidified in the 2025 NFL postseason. The NFC South is up for grabs, and it comes down to a Week 18 matchup between the Buccaneers and Panthers.
If Carolina wins the game, it will win the division for the first time since 2015. The Panthers last appeared in the playoffs in 2017. If the Buccaneers win, it’s not as simple to make the playoffs. They also need the Saints to defeat the Falcons to avoid a three-way tie atop the division.
If the Buccaneers and Saints win, Tampa Bay will earn its fifth straight division crown and sixth straight playoff appearance.
Tampa Bay is a 2.5-point favorite and -142 on the moneyline, while Carolina is +120 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at over/under 43.5 points.
Here’s a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday’s Buccaneers vs. Panthers matchup.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers prediction, preview
This scenario was incredibly unlikely in Week 6. The Buccaneers were 5-1, having defeated the Texans, Seahawks and 49ers, and Baker Mayfield was an MVP candidate. Meanwhile, the Panthers were 3-3, but their wins came against weak squads: the Falcons, Dolphins and Cowboys.
It seemed like the Buccaneers would win their fifth straight division title and make the playoffs for six straight years. They entered their bye week with a 6-2 record, then everything collapsed. Tampa Bay lost seven of its next eight games.
Losses to the Patriots, Bills and Rams immediately after the bye week are understandable, but the others potentially cost the team a playoff bid. They fell to the Saints, Falcons, Panthers and Dolphins. Now, they get a rematch against Carolina at home.
This is the most important game of the year for Tampa Bay, as all the previous losses can be wiped away with a victory (and some help from New Orleans).
Carolina defeated Tampa Bay 23-20 in Week 16. Bryce Young completed 21-of-32 passes for 191 yards and two touchdowns. Mayfield completed 18-of-26 for 145 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Panthers nailed a 48-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter to take the lead and ultimately win.
The Buccaneers don’t have momentum on their side, but the Panthers don’t either. Carolina lost 27-10 last week against the Seahawks and have alternated wins and losses since Week 7.
Buccaneers vs. Panthers pick, best bet
This wouldn’t have been a question in October, but the Buccaneers look totally different heading into the new year. New year, new team? I’m not buying that.
The Buccaneers have lost their mojo, and it’s time for a new NFC South champion. Panthers win this game outright, but playing a +3.5 alternate spread is a safer option to avoid a Tampa Bay game-winning field goal blowing the slip.