The Detroit Lions take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a game that could have huge implications on the NFC playoff race come January. The Lions have not lost back-to-back games in several years, but the 5-1 Bucs are going to put a tough test to that streak, especially given Detroit’s current injury situation.
Let’s see who has the statistical advantage in our Lions vs. Buccaneers preview and prediction. It’s On Paper: Week 7.
Lions pass offense (5th in DVOA) vs. Bucs pass defense (20th)
The Lions’ passing attack continues to chug along at a pretty strong rate. Even last week against the Chiefs, when they only mustered 17 points, it wasn’t because of a poor passing attack. Jared Goff was accurate and efficient, as he’s been pretty much all year. For the season, the Lions rank:
First in passer rating (122.4)Fifth in yards per attempt (8.0)Fourth dropback EPA (0.299)Second in dropback success rate (56.2%)
Really, the only statistic where the Lions fall behind in the passing game is depth of target. Detroit is averaging just 6.7 intended yards per pass attempt, which ranks 29th in the NFL. However, this doesn’t show they are inefficient. It simply shows they prefer the get their yardage by dinking and dunking. Last year, the Lions averaged just 6.3 intended yards per pass attempt and produced the No. 1 offense in football.
Pass protection isn’t quite up to the Lions’ standards, though. Detroit ranks just 16th in pass blocking PFF grade (59.2), 17th in ESPN’s pass block win rate, and 11th in pressure rate allowed (31.4%). Hopefully, this week’s expected return of left tackle Taylor Decker can help, but it’s worth noting that most of their pressure is coming from the interior, where right guard Tate Ratledge (12) and left guard Christian Mahogany (10) have given up the most pressures on the team, per PFF.
Surprisingly, the Buccaneers’ defense has only held one opponent significantly below their season-long passer rating average. Looking at the average percentage difference in both yardage and passer rating, opposing offenses can expect to produce slightly above-average statistics against Tampa, and it’s not exactly easy to find out why.
When looking at the same statistics as the Lions’ passing offense, the stats are equally below-average:
21st in passer rating (99.2)26th in yards per attempt (7.6)20th in dropback EPA (0.136)27th in dropback success rate (52.4%)
But here’s where it gets weird: the Bucs’ pass rush and coverage both grade out quite well. They rank eighth in pass rush win rate and 12th in PFF pass rush grade. When it comes to PFF’s coverage grade, Tampa ranks a respectable 14th. So where are they failing?
That’s where the good news comes in. Tampa ranks 27th in EPA per dropback on passes under 10 air yards. They’ve allowed the fifth most yards after the catch on such plays. They’re particularly bad at covering tight ends and running backs, ranking 28th and 25th, respectively, in DVOA given up to each position. It should come as no surprise that their struggles are with their linebacking crew, where veteran Lavonte David has posted a 41.1 coverage grade through six games, and SirVocea Dennis has a 29.0 grade. PFF has credited the duo with allowing 48 catches on just 55 targets for 572 yards and a touchdown and an interception (108.5 passer rating).
Player to watch: Vita Vea. The Bucs defensive tackle is a game-wrecker and was a big problem in last year’s Week 2 matchup against Frank Ragnow. Now he’ll face a young, struggling duo of guards.
Advantage: Lions +2. While I don’t expect a 400-yard day or a ton of deep shots on a strong Buccaneers secondary, this does seem like a particularly good week to papercut Tampa’s defense little by little over the middle. Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery could be huge pieces of the offensive passing attack this week.
Lions run offense (8th) vs. Bucs run defense (6th)
I think it’s a little fair to call the Lions’ run game a little disappointing so far this year. Last year, they produced over 150 rushing yards in eight of 17 games. This year, they’ve only done it twice, and they’ve already been held under 100 twice—something that only happened in a single game all of 2024. The past two weeks, in particular, have been disappointing because they went up against poor run defenses and underperformed.
That said, I don’t want to exaggerate how bad it has been, because it’s still a strength of the team. For the season, the Lions rank:
16th in yards per carry (4.4)13th in rush EPA (-0.036)15th in rush success rate (42.4%)
Okay, well, maybe that does prove my point a little bit. The Lions’ rushing attack, in my opinion, has been far closer to average than it has been a top-five unit, like we’re accustomed to.
Part of the reason is the lack of explosive plays. Detroit has just 15 rushes of 10 or more yards this season—an average of 2.5 per game (t-21st). Last year, they had 68, or an average of 4.0 per game (sixth).
The offensive line takes some blame here. While they rank fourth in PFF run blocking grade, they only rank 19th in ESPN’s run block win rate, 10th in FTN Fantasy’s adjusted line yards, and Detroit is averaging just 1.42 yards before contact—13th in the NFL.
Unfortunately for Detroit, this will be a test nearly as tough as their matchups against the Packers and Browns, when Detroit produced just 2.1 and 3.8 yards per carry, respectively. The Buccaneers rank:
Fifth in yards per carry (3.7)First in rush EPA (-0.236)Fourth in rush success rate (34.1%)
Truly, only one team has found any sort of success against this run defense, when Seattle’s Kenneth Walker earned 86 rushing yards on just 10 carries.
Further supporting the cause that this is a top-five run defense is their stuffed rate (22.2%, first) and yards after contact allowed per attempt (2.14, second).
But there are signs of vulnerability here. They rank just 18th in run stop win rate, 15th in PFF run defense grade, and they give up the sixth-most yards before contact per attempt.
Player to watch: Lavonte David. For as much of a liability as he’s become in the pass game, David is still tough to handle against the run. He’s produced the highest run defense grade on the Bucs team (79.6).
Advantage: Bucs +2. Much like the previous matchup, this feels like an elite unit going up against an average one, just in the opposite direction. I’m almost tempted to give Tampa an even bigger advantage here, because if they can stop the Lions’ run game—and it looks like they can—it would obviously impact Detroit’s ability to pass the ball. We saw last week what happens when the Lions get behind the sticks, and getting into third-and-longs against this Tampa defense is asking for trouble (seventh-best EPA/pass on third-and-longs).
Bucs pass offense (3rd) vs. Lions pass defense (14th)
This is the chart of an MVP candidate. Baker Mayfield has this pass offense rolling, despite the fact that Mike Evans has missed three games, Chris Godwin has missed four games, and the entire Tampa offense has been missing the right side of their offensive line for most of the year.
Despite all of that, the Bucs offense still ranks:
Fifth in passer rating (108.5)Seventh in yards per attempt (7.9)Fifth dropback EPA (0.293)14th in dropback success rate (48.5%)
When you see high efficiency metrics but a significantly lower success rate, that means… (waits for crowd to answer)… EXPLOSIVE PLAYS! And, indeed, the Bucs are full of them. Tampa has produced 24 passing plays of 20 yards or more, second only to the Rams and Seahawks.
It’s unclear which weapons Mayfield will have at his disposal this week, with Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka both considered game-day decisions. Egbuka has been Mayfield’s favorite target so far, though. He has 469 yards, is averaging 17.4 yards per catch, and has caught five touchdowns—all ranking in the top-five among all NFL receivers through six weeks.
Pass protection can be a problem, though. Tampa ranks just 23rd in pass block win rate, 17th in PFF grade, and 24th in pressure rate allowed. Unsurprisingly, it’s the injured right side of the offensive line that is the biggest culprit. Tampa will be on their third-string right guard and second-string right tackle, Charlie Heck, who has given up 23 pressures this year per PFF—second most of any offensive tackle.
The Lions’ pass defense has been all over the place, but in the last two weeks—as the injuries have begun to mount—it hasn’t been very pretty. It’s hard to get a quality read on the defense as it currently stands (ie, with no starters in the secondary available) because of low sample sizes, but if last week’s game was any indication, there is some cause for concern.
The season-long stats don’t provide a ton of clarity, nor optimism:
20th in passer rating (97.0)24th in yards per attempt (7.5)12th dropback EPA (0.092)Ninth in dropback success rate (44.9%)
As alluded to, the Lions’ secondary is currently a mess. They will be missing both starting cornerbacks (D.J. Reed, Terrion Arnold), both starting safeties (Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph), as well as some key depth pieces (Ennis Rakestraw, Khalil Dorsey, Avonte Maddox). The only available defensive backs on the roster are Amik Robertson, Nick Whiteside, Rock Ya-Sin, Thomas Harper, and Jammie Robinson. Only three of those players were on the 53-man roster a week ago. Detroit will likely bring up a defensive back or two from the practice squad, but the point remains. It’s tough sledding for that secondary.
The good news is the Lions’ pass rush could have a boost this week with the return of Alim McNeill. While the star defensive tackle will have to shake off some rust, this could be a good unit to get his feet wet. If both he and NFL pressure leader Aidan Hutchinson can attack that right side of the Bucs’ line, it could shift the dynamic of the entire matchup here. Without McNeill, the Lions ranked eighth in pressure rate (37.5%), third in sack rate (8.5%), and t-third in PFF pass rush grade (85.4).
Player to watch: Lions secondary. I can’t even pinpoint a single player, because I don’t know who is playing. Amik Robertson will likely have to follow whoever Tampa’s No. 1 receiver is. But can they trust Ya-Sin to cover WR2? Thomas Harper likely fills in for Kerby Joseph, but who will fill in for Branch? There’s bound to be at least one or two very inexperienced options out there, and I fully expect Mayfield to test them.
Advantage: Bucs +2. Again, this is an elite unit on one side going up against a questionable-at-best unit. I expect Mayfield to add to his MVP resume because while he may be short on receivers, that’s been the case all year, and it hasn’t mattered much. Meanwhile, the Lions have to prove their pass defense can withstand all of their current injuries.
Bucs run offense (19th) vs. Lions run defense (5th)
Not only is this a pretty sad running chart, but it’s also largely influenced by Mayfield’s scrambling. The Bucs quarterback is responsible for 24.1 percent of the team’s rushing yards, averaging 26.3 yards per game and a whopping 7.2 per carry. Rachaad White, who is expected to get the start this week, has managed just 214 yards on 4.0 per carry—but he does have four touchdowns.
For the year, the Bucs rank:
22nd in yards per carry (4.0)25th in rush EPA (-0.137)22nd in rush success rate (38.9%)
The longest run by a non-quarterback this year for the Bucs is just 16 yards. So they aren’t explosive, efficient, and they’re only average in short-yardage situations, earning a 73% success rate in those moments (13th).
Still, you have to account for Mayfield. Half of his 22 rushing attempts have earned first downs. Take away his four kneel downs, and that means 11-of-18 of Mayfield’s actual rushes (61%) end up moving the chains.
The Lions’ run defense continues to be strong, but not exactly dominant. They’ve held down a good Packers running game, but also allowed a mediocre Bears one to have some success. The one thing they’ve been able to successfully do, though, is limit quarterback efficiency. Here’s how quarterbacks have done vs. the Lions defense so far:
Jordan Love: 3 rushes, 4 yards (season average: 17.6 yards)Caleb Williams: 5 rushes, 27 yards (season average: 21.6 yards)Lamar Jackson: 7 rushes, 35 yards (season average: 41.5 yards)Patrick Mahomes: 10 rushes, 32 yards, 1 TD (season average: 37.0 yards)
So they’ve held all but Jackson under season averages, and they sacked Lamar seven times—so that evens out pretty well.
For the year, the Lions rank:
10th in yards per carry (4.0)Seventh in rush EPA (-0.174)12th in rush success rate (38.5%)
Player to watch: Jack Campbell. We have to talk about the year Campbell is having. He currently holds the best run defense grade among all NFL linebackers (92.1) and has a league-high 25 defensive stops, per PFF. His average depth of tackle is 2.4, tied for the eighth-best mark in the league—meaning most of his work is done near the line of scrimmage.
Advantage: Lions +1.5. I’m not giving a huge advantage to the Lions here, because I’m not sure how much this matchup truly matters. Unlike the Lions, Tampa’s offense is not centered around their run game. While the Lions rank dead last in early-down pass rate, the Bucs are right in the middle. So if Tampa’s run game sputters, they are better equipped to survive than Detroit.
Last week, while I gave the Lions a +1.5 advantage, I admitted I had zero confidence in my prediction because of how close each matchup seemed. My only real whiff was giving the Chiefs a mere +1 advantage in the passing game, because I didn’t expect the Lions’ linebackers to get exposed as heavily as they did.
In the comment section, there were basically no close predictions anywhere on Pride of Detroit, but Muddy.D was the only one to give the Chiefs a two-score victory with their 34-24 Chiefs prediction, so they get this week’s honor. Enjoy this real book that hasn’t been edited to display a different subtitle and author:
This week’s prediction:
The Buccaneers come out with a slight +0.5 advantage. Oddly, despite the fact that these are two really good teams, every matchup seems to have a clear advantage for one side or the other. So this game will simply come down to who exploits the other team’s advantages more. And for both teams, that likely means quarterbacking. The run game is a poor matchup for both offenses, so this is very much a Goff vs. Mayfield game.
But as I concluded earlier, I think Tampa has proven to be more resilient to their receiver injuries (compared to the Lions’ secondary injuries), and the Bucs have shown more offensive success without a run game. So that gives them the edge this week. Bucs 27, Lions 24.