The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the Detroit Lions to help you craft a winning lineup.
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Baker Mayfield, QB
The smart kid in class is always going to end up with a good grade on a group project, right?
Even if surrounded by average (or worse) students, he/she won’t let the team fail. I know this not from experience of being that type of elevating talent, but from marrying that person (yes, we met during a group project in high school and only one of us targeted the group as an easy grade).
It worked for me, and it is working for any of you who made a commitment to Baker Mayfield this season.
Coming into the season, we thought this would be a loaded offense, but every week brings new obstacles. We had games with and without Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Bucky Irving.
None of it matters. Emeka Egbuka has been at the center of most of Mayfield’s production this season, but he was lost on Sunday, and it didn’t matter. Tez Johnson is the size of your average accountant, and Kam Johnson is a name I associate more with the National Basketball Association.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 7 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Doesn’t matter. They both scored, helping Mayfield clear 19 fantasy points for the fifth time in six weeks. I’d rather he not be forced to produce with one hand tied behind his back, but we are seeing him elevate talent weekly, and there are no signs of regression.
Last season, Mayfield had 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on balls thrown 3+ yards past the sticks. Through six weeks, his 74 such attempts this season have yielded nine scores and zero picks. He’s the George Pickens of quarterbacks, in that there is a direct correlation between confidence level and production.
As long as you believe that Mayfield would tell you to start him in fantasy, you start him in fantasy.
Bucky Irving, RB
That’s now consecutive missed games for Irving (shoulder), and it’ll be three straight after Todd Bowles made it clear on Monday that this week wasn’t on the table for a return to action.
Maybe next week?
Not only is next week a soft landing spot (at NO), but you get the extended recovery window that comes with a Week 9 bye.
Rachaad White and Sean Tucker are the fill-in options, both of whom should be long gone from your waiver wire. I wouldn’t advise doing anything drastic, even if it feels like your season is spiraling without your RB1. Irving is a special talent and is capable of making up for lost time once the Bucs are comfortable in activating him.
Rachaad White, RB
We know exactly what White is, and with that comes clarity.
We know that he is better suited as a pass catcher than a pure runner, but we also know, after logging 31 carries over the past two weeks while filling in for Irving (shoulder), that he’s going to be used heavily.
Tampa Bay figures to continue to run him into the back of the offensive line for the same reason that a fastball pitcher mixes in the occasional changeup.
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Everyone knows what the Bucs want to do, but the Mayfield experience can’t take place without at least the thought of balance. White has picked up just 3.5 yards per carry in his two games as the bellcow, but he has caught all seven of his targets, and that’s the place where his value emerges.
This offense is as injured as any in the league, and White is one of the five most likely to get 15 carries and five targets in Week 7. I can’t promise you that it’ll be pretty, but he’s the short-yardage option with savvy as a route runner in a top-10 offense.
You’re taking it week by week, but I feel fine about labeling White as a PPR RB2 in what could be the most entertaining game of the week.
Sean Tucker, RB
Tucker caught three balls in the Week 5 win in Seattle and scored over the weekend against the 49ers, but make no mistake about it: this is not a committee filling in for Irving.
Week 5 Participation Report
White: 81% snaps, 24 routes, 18 touches
Tucker: 20.7% snaps, 7 routes, 6 touches
Week 6 Participation Report
White: 78% snaps, 19 routes, 20 touches
Tucker: 22% snaps, 3 routes, 6 touches
Given that Irving was ruled out a week early for this game, you could justify rostering Tucker for one more week as a contingent value play for Week 8, but with the bye after that, things look bleak. Should White make it through this week unscathed, you can pretty safely move on from what was a logical add of Tucker.
Chris Godwin, WR
The fibula fracture last season was gruesome, and that’s why we were all so glad to see 29-year-old Godwin back on the field in Week 4, earning 10 targets against the Philadelphia Eagles in his season debut.
A week later, it was four targets, and last week, a DNP (fibula).
This is obviously tough to see for a player who worked so hard to get back on the field, but I can’t help but speculate that the team could be regretting using him as a full-go in his season debut and that the result forecasts a cautious approach moving forward.
READ MORE: Chris Godwin Injury Update: What’s the Latest on the Buccaneers WR, and Will He Play in Week 7?
The Bucs travel to New Orleans next weekend before going on their bye in Week 9, meaning that you’re more likely than not betting on Godwin until Week 10 (vs. NE) at the earliest, considering that he was ruled out this week before Tampa Bay even hit the practice field.
There are valuable targets to earn and an ultra-favorable playoff schedule to entice: Godwin needs to remain rostered, even if the outlook is cloudy at best right now.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
If only we had known that wide receiver injuries in Tampa Bay were contagious before putting all our hopes and dreams in Egbuka.
The outstanding rookie suffered a hamstring injury in the third quarter last week and is expected to be sidelined for some time. The Bucs get the New Orleans Saints next week before going on bye in Week 9; we don’t yet have a Week 10 target return date, but it’s easy to see a path to that.
Both Tez and Kameron Johnson are the names to know in this offense if you want a piece of the Mayfield for MVP campaign, especially indoors in a potentially offensively charged contest.
It’s a little hard to imagine, but if the manager with Egbuka has a losing record, why not start a trade conversation? If that’s the case, the rest of the roster is likely depleted, giving you the ability to swoop in with a volume deal that lands you an elite asset who closes the fantasy season with the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins in Weeks 16-17.
Mike Evans, WR
Evans suffered what Bowles labeled as a “low-grade” hamstring injury in Week 3, and while that sounds good, let’s not forget that this is a 32-year-old receiver who is in the process of seeing Egbuka replace him.
Obviously, not all hope is lost. Evans still has plenty of juice (27 targets earned in his three games) and when at full strength, he stands to slide into the back-end of my WR2 rankings, especially with Godwin struggling to near full strength and Irving also battling to get on the field.
There are some instances where a productive player goes down with an injury, and I’ll encourage you to buy at a discount. Opportunities like this present themselves all the time as a fantasy manager is holding a distressed asset because of their standing in your league and is looking, for lack of a better way to say it, to make a bad deal. To take pennies now for a dollar in the future.
This isn’t that.
READ MORE: Mike Evans Injury Update: How Long Will Fantasy Managers Be Without the Buccaneers WR?
Evans missed three games a season ago, and these soft-tissue injuries always carry an aggravation risk. We haven’t seen the future Hall of Famer reach 60 receiving yards in a game this season, and I’m not sure that changes in a meaningful way when he returns to the field.
Assuming he sits this week, you’ll be able to free up a roster spot by using your IR, and that’s fine. Just be careful in assuming that you’re getting a difference-maker when he returns to your lineup.
Cade Otton, TE
After a bunch of nothing in September, Cade Otton has recorded double-digit PPR points in back-to-back games as he takes advantage of his teammates dropping like flies.
Mayfield has put himself in the center of the MVP conversation, and that’s helping Otton’s move onto our radar. Still, if he regresses in the slightest OR reinforcements start to come for this offense, this Otton mini run of relevance will likely be a thing of the past.
Tampa Bay is going to be low on reliable pass catchers again this week, and that puts Otton on the TE1 radar. I’m just not confident he’ll stick around long-term.