Miami vs. Indiana

One of the biggest draws to the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff is that it allows more teams to have a chance at winning the sport’s ultimate prize. Last season’s National Championship Game featured No. 8 Ohio State and No. 7 Notre Dame, two teams that would not have been part of the four-team playoff. This season, we get No. 10 Miami vs. No. 1 Indiana, as the Hoosiers look to cap off an unbeaten season and the Hurricanes look to finish off something of a Cinderella CFP run.

Miami vs. Indiana is probably not the game that anybody expected, but it’s the game we’ve got and it is a truly fascinating handicap. Curt Cignetti’s team has been a juggernaut in two CFP matchups thus far and has a perfect 16-0 season on the line, an astonishing number for a program that won nine games total in Tom Allen’s final three seasons from 2021-23 before Cignetti was hired.

Meanwhile, the Hurricanes have had people asking, “How did this team lose to Louisville and SMU?” after knocking off Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss to make it to this point. The Hurricanes played one top-10 opponent during the regular season and beat Notre Dame 27-24 in that game. They’ve played three top-seven teams here in the postseason and have beaten them all.

So, the stage is set for a game between a team hot at the right time and a team that has been virtually flawless all season long. Oh, and the game is in Miami, where Indiana QB and Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza grew up and where the Hurricanes call home.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of January 14, 10:55 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

CFP National Championship Game: Miami vs. Indiana (-8.5, 47)

Monday, Jan. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)

The University of Indiana football program began in 1885. Until Cignetti arrived in Bloomington, the program had never won 10 games in a season. He enters this game 26-2 as the head coach over two seasons with one enormous game to go. This is a program that hadn’t won a bowl game since the 1991 Copper Bowl when Cignetti took over. The Hoosiers did lose last season in the CFP First Round to Notre Dame, but they’ve more than made up for it this time around with Rose Bowl and Peach Bowl wins by a combined score of 94-25.

Miami is definitely the more storied program between the two, as they celebrate their 100th year of football in 2026. But the standards for the team had been lowered in recent years. Miami entered this postseason without a bowl game victory since 2016, losing five straight before this current run. Just three seasons ago, Mario Cristobal was trying to figure out how to get the program back on the national landscape after a 5-7 first season back in his native hometown.

Both of these teams absolutely showcase the significance of the transfer portal, as this is the second straight title game in the expanded CFP era with first-year starting QBs that were acquired via free agency in the offseason. Last year’s game featured Will Howard (Kansas State) for the Buckeyes and Riley Leonard (Duke) for the Fighting Irish. This season, we have Carson Beck (Georgia) and the aforementioned Mendoza (Cal).

As for this game itself, the lookahead line here was Indiana -5.5 and opened up -7.5 as the Hoosiers were done duck hunting against Oregon. Early betting action pushed the number up to 8.5 by Tuesday and then the line fell into a bit of a holding pattern. The prevailing sentiment in the betting market seems to be that the line is probably a little bit too high, but betting against Indiana seems foolish. What Cignetti has done, and his willingness to keep his foot on the gas pedal regardless of the score, does make a Hurricanes bet very risky.

Statistically speaking, Indiana enters this game No. 1 in EPA on offense and No. 4 in EPA on defense per CFB Graphs, while Miami is No. 14 on offense and No. 7 on defense. The Hoosiers rank second in EPA margin to Ohio State and Miami is seventh, behind two teams that they’ve already beaten in this CFP quest and six spots ahead of Ole Miss.

In a more traditional setting, Indiana ranks seventh in yards per play with 6.96 and Miami is 34th with 6.08. Defensively, Indiana is 10th at 4.62 and Miami is 14th at 4.70. Per Jeff Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings, Miami’s SOS is ninth, while Indiana’s is 18th.

Situationally, Indiana leads the nation by a huge margin in third down conversion rate at 58.2%. Miami is 18th at 47.1%. The Hurricanes don’t hold an edge defensively here either, as Indiana is eighth at 30.3% and Miami is 11th at 30.8%, but at least the gap isn’t as big.

From a red zone standpoint, Indiana has a 74% TD% with 54 touchdowns in 73 red zone trips. Miami has a 67.7% TD% with 42 touchdowns in 62 red zone trips. Once again, the Hoosiers are stronger on defense, holding opponents to just nine touchdowns in 26 red zone attempts for a 34.6% TD%. The Hurricanes only allowed 32 red zone trips with a TD% against of 53.1%.

One area of concern for Miami is with the officiating crew. Indiana plays about as disciplined as a service academy. Only Army (21.9) has fewer penalty yards per game this season than Indiana (26.9), while Miami ranks 85th with 57.1 penalty yards per contest. In a game where the margin for error looks to be thin for the Hurricanes, they’re going to have to be disciplined and not get baited into anything.

One last point worth discussing is that both teams faced opponents in difficult situations last time out. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning had to deal with OC Will Stein and DC Tosh Lupoi pulling double duty while focusing on their new head coaching gigs at Kentucky and Cal, respectively. Similarly, Ole Miss had OC Charlie Weis Jr. and other assistants pulling double duty with the Rebels and with Lane Kiffin at LSU. In this game, there are no coaching concerns such as those.

Miami vs. Indiana CFP National Championship Game Prediction

In my mind, Miami has taken three teams’ best shots. Indiana beat an Alabama team that didn’t belong in the playoff and an Oregon team that, frankly, felt overrated all season long. That’s not meant to dismiss what the Hoosiers have done and if those two things are true, they more than handled their business with two blowout wins against two teams they should have pummeled.

I do think the current version of the Hurricanes, with what OC Shannon Dawson and DC Corey Hetherman have done, does have a better chance of stacking up against Indiana. I won’t be remotely surprised if Indiana goes all UConn Basketball and wins this game by three touchdowns. But, I do think that at 8.5, there is some line equity on the Hurricanes. As for the total, a lean towards the Under, but not a strong one at all.

Pick: Miami +8.5

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