Invest 98L developed into Tropical Storm Melissa Tuesday morning, Oct. 21, according to an advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the central Caribbean on Tuesday, Oct. 21, and is expected to strengthen, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season and forecasters expect it to strengthen.

Tropical Storm Melissa is expected to strengthen gradually as it moves northwest, then north over the next few days. Beyond that, there is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast for Melissa, hurricane center forecasters said.

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An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Tuesday afternoon to assess the storm’s strength and structure.

Could Tropical Storm Melissa impact Fort Myers, Cape Coral and Lee County?

What is Tropical Storm Melissa doing now?

Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time. 

As of 11 a.m., Oct. 21:

Location: 300 miles south of Port Au Prince, Haiti; 1,047 miles southeast of Naples

Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

Tropical Storm Melissa: What to know

At 11 a.m., the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.7 West.

Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph. A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days.

On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica later this week.

Surface observations and satellite data indicate maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center.

Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb.

Tropical Storm Melissa Spaghetti models

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

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Weather watches and warnings issued in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lee County, Florida. See map

As of 11 a.m. Oct. 21, no watches or warnings associated with Tropical Storm Melissa have been issued for Florida or the U.S.

What tropical storm, hurricane warnings have been issued for Tropical Storm Melissa?

A hurricane watch is in effect for:

Southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Fort Myers storm tracker: Where is Tropical Storm Melissa headed?

At 11 a.m. Oct. 21, Tropical Storm Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and was moving west at 14 mph.

Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days, the National Hurricane Center said.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Melissa

Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

A hurricane watch has been issued for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday.

There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Current forecast: Where is Tropical Storm Melissa going and how strong could it get?

“The future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Is there a hurricane coming toward Florida? Possible scenarios

There is “significant uncertainty in the track and intensity” for Tropical Storm Melissa, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters are predicting Melissa will strengthen into a hurricane.

“There is some possibility of it becoming a very strong hurricane before it makes its move to the north,” said Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross via email Oct. 21.

“In that case, direct impacts of a major hurricane are possible on Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and/or somewhere in the Bahamas.”

Will it impact Florida or the U.S.? That’s uncertain.

“While not the most likely scenario, if there were to be any impact to the U.S. it would not be expected until at least the middle of next week,” AccuWeather said via email Oct. 21.

“Chances of some direct effect on Florida aren’t zero, but they are extremely small,” Norcross said.

“The only way it could happen would be for Melissa to drift into the extreme western Caribbean before a dip in the jet stream moving across the U.S. came along to scoop it north,” Norcross said. “There is no indication of that in the current reasonable track scenarios, however. Still, a track over Cuba and the Bahamas is not out of the question.”

Possible scenarios for Tropical Storm Melissa, according to AccuWeather, include:

“If the storm drifts west in the Caribbean through the weekend and then turns north over Cuba next week, there is the possibility that it could bring at least rough surf to the East Coast of the U.S. If it were to track close to the coast, it could bring rain and gusty winds as well.

“There is also another scenario where the storm tracks farther west and does not turn toward Hispaniola. In this case, the major flood risk across the island would be much lower. This westward track scenario would greatly increase the risk for strong winds and flooding across Jamaica and potentially Cuba or even parts of Central America.”

AccuWeather said there is “a medium risk of tropical rain or wind impacts across the Bahamas and South Florida from Oct. 27-30.”

“Historically, tropical systems that reach the western Caribbean in October are more likely to be steered away from places like Texas and Louisiana. But the eastern United States and Florida in particular can still be impacted by intense storms.”

Best- and worst-case scenarios with Tropical Storm Melissa

“The best case is that Thursday’s jet stream dip grabs it (Melissa) and moves it quickly over the Dominican Republic or Haiti,” Norcross said.

“The worst case is that it sits close enough to one or several of the mountainous Caribbean islands and dumps feet of rain. Three or four feet are not out of the question.”

What impact could Tropical Storm Melissa have and what areas could be affected?

Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

Rainfall: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

Surf: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days.

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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane tracker for Tropical Storm Melissa. Fort Myers, FL impact?