Melissa is moving into an environment favorable for strengthening. It is the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean Tuesday morning, marking the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. This could could become a major rain maker in the Caribbean from Jamaica to Hispaniola. 

Melissa is moving into an environment favorable for strengthening, the NHC expects it to become a major hurricane by the end of the weekend near Jamaica. A hurricane watch is in place for Haiti and a Tropical Storm watch for Jamaica. 

The track today continues to bring the storm more west along its track towards Jamaica. Hurricane strength winds will be possible there but the biggest threat will be the rainfall. Thus regardless of the exact track, heavy rainfall is expected in Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Jamaica. With the slow movement of Melissa, flash flooding and landslides could be a big issue. Since there is uncertainty in where this storm could track, other places like Cuba should also watch out for the threat of flooding.



The reason there is such uncertainty in the forecast is because models are completely disagreeing. Some computer models, including the GFS, suggest a northerly turn as a trough dips off the U.S. East Coast, potentially steering the storm over Haiti Monday. Other guidance like the ECMWF, however, drifts Melissa farther west, then brings it over Cuba and the Bahamas in about 7 days.