As Florida House speaker from 2022 to 2024, Paul Renner passed the kind of red-meat legislation the GOP base craved.
Concealed weapon carry without a permit. A six-week abortion ban. A prohibition on medical treatment for children with gender dysphoria. A rollback on diversity, equity and inclusion programs in schools and universities. The elimination of income limits to qualify for private school vouchers. And much more.
“I was determined as speaker to put as many conservative wins on the board as possible,” Renner told a crowd of Hillsborough County Republicans in mid-February.
Renner’s résumé, which includes decorated service in the U.S. Navy and a career as a state prosecutor, should make him an instant contender in the Republican primary for governor.
And yet in the six months since Renner, 58, declared his candidacy, he’s lagging far behind the front-runner in the race, U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds. (Renner and Donalds know each other well; they served in the Florida House of Representatives together, and Renner beat out Donalds and two others in the race for House speaker.)
Of about a dozen polls conducted since Renner announced on Sept. 3, he has yet to break into double digits, while Donalds consistently tops 35%.
Renner has raised more than $5 million in his campaign so far. While that’s more than two of the other Republicans in the race — James Fishback and Lt. Gov. Jay Collins — it’s magnitudes below the $40 million Donalds has in his campaign war chest.
According to Google Trends, Renner’s name is last among the four candidates for web search terms in Florida over the past month. And with six months to go before state Republicans choose their party’s nominee, the clock is ticking for Renner to make up ground.
In interviews, Republican leaders praised Renner’s character and conservative bona fides.
“Paul’s a good and honorable man,” said Adam Ross, Pinellas County’s tax collector and the chairperson of the Pinellas GOP.
But Ross said Renner’s candidacy lacked a key ingredient: “He doesn’t have the support from the two people who matter most to Republicans.”
Last summer, President Donald Trump announced he was backing Donalds, cementing his front-runner status.
Then, on the day Renner announced his bid for governor, Gov. Ron DeSantis declined to endorse his campaign.
“I think it was an ill-advised decision to enter the race,” DeSantis saidof Renner at the time.
Observers have long speculated that DeSantis’ wife, Casey, may enter the race. DeSantis alsodeclined to endorse Collins, his No. 2.
Renner told the Tampa Bay Times that he doesn’t fault DeSantis for not endorsing anyone at this point in the race.
“My hope would be that we’ll earn his support,” he said.
Collins holds an important advantage over Renner in that, as lieutenant governor, he occupies a statewide office that DeSantis appointed him to last year. Renner is two years removed from his speaker post, a job that doesn’t provide lasting name recognition.
“For two years, you get the glory as speaker,” said Tom Gaitens, a former state committeeman in the Hillsborough GOP. “But that fades fast.”
Exceptions include Marco Rubio, who is now U.S. secretary of state, and Daniel Webster, a longtime congressman. Just about every other speaker had to find their next job through personal connections, not votes.
“Because there’s only so much oxygen in Tallahassee, the news cycle pushes them out so fast and they’re soon forgotten,” Gaitens said.
As speaker, Renner scored points with Gaitens after working closely with Hillsborough leaders to ensure tax money rejected for Hillsborough County projects would be used for roads. The average voter, however, doesn’t see any of that. Renner doesn’t help himself, Gaitens said, because he’s a “low-key kind of guy” who doesn’t brag.
“He’s not the most bombastic guy in the room,” Gaitens said.
One candidate who is known for bombast is Fishback, a financial investor. He packs his social media feeds with racist attacks against Donalds and populist diatribes slamming the Republican establishment. At 31, he’s tapping into the economic anxieties of the 18-35 demographic whose prospects pale compared to previous generations.
Despite raising a tiny fraction of what Renner has raised, Fishback’s message is finding a larger audience because it’s addressing real economic concerns, said Parisa Mousavi, president of the Pinellas County Young Republicans.
“It’s tough out there, and Fishback is the only candidate talking about this in a way that we can relate to,” Mousavi said. “I haven’t seen or heard anything from Renner.”
Fishback’s stump speeches seem like evangelical TED talks, parts of which are streamed continuously. Fishback mingles between talking points and edgy banter with crowd members.
Renner’s social posts don’t go viral or spark buzz. During his talk with Hillsborough Republicans on a recent Tuesday night, Renner’s demeanor was that of a prosecutor explaining his case to a jury.
Even for those receptive to his candidacy, Renner’s formal manner isn’t connectingwith a wider audience.
“When you’re too refined, people don’t relate to that,” said Hillsborough County Commissioner Joshua Wostal. “He’s not doing it on purpose. He’s a seasoned lawyer. I’m sure it’s part of his personality. But he needs to remember that he’s not prosecuting a murder. He’s trying to win over people worried about the cost of food and sending their kid to college.”
Wostal said that among the current candidates, he’s torn between Collins, whom he counts as a friend, and Renner.
It’s early enough in the campaign, Wostal said, where the undecideds still outnumber any one candidate and the race is wide open.
Renner acknowledges that, for now, Donalds has the money and that Fishback is better on social media. But he said he’s confident that his track record and experience will win out as voters pay more attention.
“I’m the right candidate,” Renner said. “When primary voters look below the surface, they’re going to say, ‘I want Renner.’”