A new poll by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab asked likely midterm election voters their opinion on gubernatorial candidates & more.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A new poll released Wednesday, conducted by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab, shows that Rep. Byron Donalds and Sen. Ashley Moody are leading in the races for governor and the Senate.

The poll asked likely midterm election voters their opinion on gubernatorial candidates, their favorability of President Trump, Gov. DeSantis and other elected officials, and their stance on immigration, ballot initiatives and pending legislation.


Race for governor

Congressman Byron Donalds, who represents the Naples area, holds a single-digit lead over two potential Democratic opponents.

In a hypothetical matchup against Democrat David Jolly, 42% of likely voters said they would vote for Donalds, compared to 36% for Jolly. Seventeen percent said they are undecided.

Against Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings, Donalds received 43% support to Demings’ 36%, with 16% undecided.

Poll director Dr. Sean Freeder said that, at this stage, party identification appears to be driving the numbers more than the candidates themselves.

“Republicans still enjoy a clear advantage with Florida voters, but it doesn’t yet appear as strong as in previous years,” Freeder said, adding that the president’s party typically struggles more in midterm elections.


U.S. Senate race

When asked about the Democratic candidates for the Senate, a majority of those who participated in the poll said they never heard of Alexander Vindman (66%), a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel who served on the National Security Council, and Jacksonville Rep. Angie Nixon (74%).

However, participants favored Vindman slightly more with 18%, compared to Nixon’s 14%.

“On one hand, Vindman enjoys a name recognition advantage over Nixon as expected,” Freeder said. “On the other hand, given his significant involvement in Trump’s first impeachment, the familiarity advantage is much smaller than one would expect, and it doesn’t translate to better general election performance.”

In a head-to-head matchup with Vindman, incumbent Ashley Moody garnered 45% support to Vindman’s 38%. Fifteen percent of likely voters said they are undecided.

When matched up against Nixon, Moody received 46% to Nixon’s 38%, with 14% undecided.


The most important issue concerning Florida voters

When asked about the most important issue facing Florida, half of voters (50%) cited affordability and cost of living. Political division/polarization followed at 12%, while 8% named immigration. Immigration ranked higher among Republicans at 14%, while Democrats and independents were more likely to point to political polarization.

A full look at the poll results, including how likely midterm voters feel about President Trump, ICE, the push to phase out taxes on homestead property in the Sunshine State, and legalizing recreational marijuana, is embedded below.