This week on HorseCenter, Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman continue their coverage of the Kentucky Derby 2026 trail with analysis and top picks for qualifying points races from California and Florida.

Saturday’s Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes features the return of the $3 million purchase Brant. Away since running a close third in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Gun Runner is expected to be a strong choice in the field of seven, which also includes unbeaten graded-stakes winner So Happy. 

The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) welcomes back another highly regarded son of Gun Runner, Further Ado. Trained by Brad Cox, the Spendthrift Farm color-bearer most recently won the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in November. Unbeaten Canaletto also should get plenty of wagering support on Saturday.  

Brian: Brant has been one of the most talked-about horses of this foal crop ever since last March’s 2-year-old in training sale at Ocala. The gray son of Gun Runner carried a hefty price tag one year ago, and when he made it to the races in July, he looked the part of a potential star with an impressive debut victory.

Moving right into Grade 1 company, he was a solid winner of the Del Mar Futurity in his second career start before giving Ted Noffey a good battle in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. As a son of Gun Runner, you would expect Brant to improve with maturity, but this will be a test as he faces horses who have been active recently. Still, he deserves top billing as he makes his first start in just over four months.

Matt: The San Felipe drew a small field of seven compared to the trio of Derby preps that offered 105 qualifying points last weekend, the Gotham (G3), Fountain of Youth (G2) and Rebel (G2). Trainer Bob Baffert has two entered as he tries to win the race for the 10th time. His previous winners were from 1999 to 2024, including 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic.

Brant is the only Grade 1 winner in the San Felipe and is one of three horses who have experience on the Kentucky Derby trail, along with Secured Freedom and Robusta. Brant has 9 Derby points from his third in the Breeders’ Cup, and Secured Freedom got 6 when he was third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3).

Brian: A son of the sprint champion Runhappy, So Happy has yet to run beyond seven furlongs for trainer Mark Glatt. It’s hard to argue with his first two career performances, however. In both a 6 1/2-furlong maiden race at Del Mar and the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, he displayed good tactical speed to stay close early and then a nice closing kick under veteran rider Mike Smith.

With the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame as his broodmare sire, there is good reason to believe that the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles Saturday will be within his scope. His improving morning workouts also should be noted, as So Happy seems to be really coming into his own.

Matt: So Happy joins Brant in the San Felipe as a graded-stakes winner. He defeated the heavy favorite Buetane from the Baffert barn in the San Vicente. So Happy sold at auction three times for $12,000 as a weanling, $20,000 as a yearling and $150,000 at the Ocala 2-year-old sale in March. He was overlooked when he won his debut at 38-1 at Del Mar in November. In his stakes win he had to overcome trouble in the early going and drew off to win by two lengths going seven furlongs. Both he and Brant posted fast six-furlong works followed by a fast shorter move to prepare for Saturday.

Brian: Several others in the San Felipe could pop up and throw themselves into contention in the Kentucky Derby prep race. Potente has run only once but is highly regarded by Baffert and should improve after working to win his debut. Secured Freedom is another one to watch after a fast maiden sprint score and then rallying for third in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in his first try around two turns for trainer Tim Yakteen.

Start the Ride has no early speed, but he made up plenty of ground in his first two career starts, including an upset win last time in the California Cup Derby as a maiden. And finally, Robusta faded down the stretch last out in the Lewis but looks like a colt who could move forward at big odds.

Matt: The only 3-year-olds in the San Felipe field with a victory around two turns are among this group of probable long shots. Two of them did it in their maiden wins, and Start the Ride won a state-bred stakes race at Santa Anita in January going a mile.

Brian: Switching to the Tampa Bay Derby, it was just a matter of going two turns last season for Further Ado. The flashy chestnut became a brand-new horse when asked to run longer. His explosive 20-length victory at Keeneland to break his maiden was one of the best performances by any 2-year-old last year, and he validated it with a grinding victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs in late November.

It’s been more than three months since his last start, so he will need to come out relatively sharp to win his sophomore debut. Trainer Brad Cox usually has them ready to roll. The Gun Runner colt is the one they all have to beat on Saturday.

Matt: It is a field of nine in the Tampa Derby, and Further Ado is one of only four horses in the field who have experience on the Derby trail. He is also the only stakes winner in the Tampa Derby, with his victory in the seventh stop on the road to the run for the roses, which got him 10 qualifying points.

Brian: In search of his first Kentucky Derby victory, trainer Chad Brown looks to be holding a strong hand eight weeks out. Paladin and Iron Honor recently won prep races nicely, and now the 47-year-old conditioner brings Canaletto to the big leagues in his second career start. 

A strapping son of Into Mischief, the $1 million yearling purchase is a half-brother to the Grade 1 winner Sandman. Unveiled at Gulfstream Park six weeks ago, he showed greenness down the lane but still romped home to an eight-length victory while running a flat mile in good time. He should be a strong second choice behind Further Ado.

Matt: Chad Brown already has two impressive Derby trail winners in Paladin and Iron Honor. Canaletto was well-liked in auctions with his pedigree and confirmation and certainly backed it up on the track in his January debut.

Brian: Of the rest, I find The Puma to be the most interesting. A son of first-crop sire Essential Quality, he is still a maiden after two starts for trainer Gustavo Delgado. In his debut, he got off to a bad start but still ran a strong second to the highly regarded Chief Wallabee at Gulfstream Park.

He moved up to stakes competition four weeks later and he found traffic at the wrong time in the local Sam F. Davis. I don’t suspect he was ever beating Renegade that afternoon, but it gave him experience over the track and it was a better effort than it appears on paper. While the top two will attract the majority of betting dollars, this colt is in with a chance for an upset on Saturday. 

Matt: The other maiden in the field, Powershift, also deserves consideration. The Todd Pletcher trainee debuted at Tampa going two turns a month ago. Pletcher had the Tampa Derby as a goal for Powershift if he ran well in his first start, which he did. He was sent off as the even-money favorite, had the lead, battled down the stretch and just missed the win. Pletcher has six previous wins in the Tampa Derby from 2003 to 2024.

Brian: In the San Felipe, I can’t help but go for some odds. Brant is a classy horse, but he has been away. So Happy is clearly dangerous, but he needs to prove that he is more than a sprinter. Potente might be a good one, but he has only a maiden sprint as experience. At 8-1 on the morning line, I believe Secured Freedom offers great value. After a fast maiden score, he dawdled at the back of the pack for too long in his graded-stakes debut before finishing well for third. I fully expect improvement this time around for the son of Practical Joke. With a solid pace in front of him, I like his chances to be running late. Secured Freedom is my top pick.

Matt: I put Brant in the group who have to prove they are two-turn horses, consiering that his only start going a longer distance was in the Breeders’ Cup, where he had the lead and ended up third. He is the horse to beat, but I also will take a chance against him. So Happy raced from off the pace to a clear victory in the San Vicente. That seven-furlong race should serve as an excellent preparation for his move onto the Kentucky Derby trail. So Happy is my top pick in the San Felipe.

Brian: I will be looking for an upset in the Tampa Bay Derby, as well. I expect the odds on both Further Ado and Canaletto to be low. Meanwhile, The Puma is still a maiden. His odds should be very attractive on Saturday. Not only did he show talent in his first two races against a pair of very good horses in Chief Wallabee and Renegade, but he had unfortunate trips in both. With racing luck here, I think he is going to really move forward. The Puma is my top pick.

Matt: Further Ado is a deserving favorite in the signature race at Tampa. My only reservation about him is that he is making his 2026 debut on the first Saturday in March, which will be only 56 days from the Kentucky Derby. I too will take a chance to beat that Brad Cox runner. Chad Brown is having excellent results on the Derby trail. He has Canaletto entered at Tampa. He debuted impressively going a mile in January and stayed in Florida to prepare for this spot. Canaletto is my top pick at Tampa.