March has arrived, and so has the final game of the 2025-26 regular season. It’s Senior Day at Rupp Arena, where Kentucky fans will watch Otega Oweh in action for the final time, as the Preseason SEC Player of the Year leads the Cats against the SEC Champion Florida Gators. The last time Todd Golden took a team to Rupp, it produced a thriller with 206 combined points in a Kentucky win. Can the Wildcats end the regular season with an exclamation point? The KSR crew weighs in…
Nick Roush
Is it weird to think that Florida might actually not be a bad matchup for Kentucky? I know the Gators are playing murderball at the moment, but if there’s one thing they can’t figure out consistently, it’s shooting from behind the three-point line. That’s been Kentucky’s Achilles heel in ugly losses, going -15 and -12 at A&M and Vandy.
The last time we saw the Cats lace ’em up at Rupp, they hit 11 threes and shot 59% from the field. It will take another incredible shooting performance to knock off Florida. While I think there will be quite a few shots that make this one interesting, the Gators’ size can impose their will on the Cats down the stretch, which will ultimately be the difference-maker.
Score: Florida 83, Kentucky 80
Drew Franklin
I’m doing it. I am believing in this team one more time before the postseason, and you can’t talk me out of it. Give me the Cats in the home finale, Senior Day for Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen, Walker Horn, and Zach Tow. I predict Kentucky has one more run of Saturday Rupp Arena magic, like last Saturday versus Vanderbilt and the Tennessee denim game before that.
Remember, Kentucky played Florida even in the second half in Gainesville. It was the hot shooting in the beginning that made the difference. Just cut that crap out, fight for your life on the glass, and lean on Big Blue Nation to power through in the end to beat the Gators in Lexington. Mark Pope is 1-0 versus Todd Golden in this spot. If you’re scared, stay home. Go Cats.
Score: Kentucky 86, Florida 85
Tyler Thompson
This is the part where Kentucky rebounds from a bad loss with a huge win, right? For the most part, that’s how this season has gone. Last Saturday, the Cats played their best basketball of the season vs. Vanderbilt, only to put up a clunker in College Station. Hopefully, that means we’ve got a big rebound coming, Kentucky eager to shake off the loss to the Aggies and get revenge against the No. 5 Gators on Senior Day. Wouldn’t that be the shot in the arm we all need going into the postseason?
The problem? Florida looks scary good right now, averaging 109.5 points in its last two wins. Kentucky played well in the first matchup in Gainesville, but the Gators seem like they’re playing on an even higher level right now. Even though they’ve clinched the SEC regular-season title, this doesn’t feel like a group that would loaf through a game. If they’re firing on all cylinders, Kentucky may simply not be able to keep up.
I do think it will be close. Kentucky had a good game plan vs. Florida last month, holding its own against the Gators’ formidable frontcourt; however, the backcourt was the difference, Xaivian Lee and Urban Klavzar playing out of their minds, combining for 9 threes and 41 points. I don’t see that happening Saturday in Rupp. The three-headed GOAT of Otega Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen, and Collin Chandler will do all they can to keep Kentucky within striking distance, but in the end, the Gators’ frontcourt will be too much. I’d love to be wrong.
Score: Florida 85, Kentucky 81
Zack Geoghegan
This version of Florida is the best team Kentucky has faced all season. The Gators’ 10-game winning streak by an average of 23.2 points per game has made them title contenders. Six players are averaging double-figures during that span. Their defense and team rebounding have been just as elite as their offense. Thomas Haugh is still a top candidate for SEC Player of the Year, while Rueben Chinyelu is a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee still aren’t shooting lights out from deep, but they’re both over 63 percent on two-pointers during the winning streak.
But we can also acknowledge that Florida hasn’t faced a top 20 team along the way. They’ve been destroying good, but not great teams. Don’t get me wrong, that’s still scary, but Kentucky played them well enough on the road the last time out that I can talk myself into this being a close contest. UK also has far more to play for. Florida has locked up the top seed in the SEC. Kentucky needs a win to avoid a Wednesday start. The Senior Day vibes will have Rupp rocking.
Kentucky has found ways to get up for games like this a handful of times throughout the season. I think they will again on Saturday. But Florida is playing like a juggernaut right now, and UK isn’t a top 20 team. The Gators pull away late to sneak out with a win.
Score: Florida 92, Kentucky 88
Jacob Polacheck
Florida was already one of the best teams in the country the last time Kentucky faced them, and they haven’t missed a beat since. Florida is the No. 5 team in the nation, riding a 10-game winning streak heading into Saturday’s game. Kentucky, despite losing to the Gators by nine the last time these teams faced, had some good moments in Gainesville.
Every time I find myself believing in this Kentucky team, they find ways to disappoint. I made the mistake of picking them against Texas A&M before a pretty ugly loss to the Aggies. I’m not doing it again. My pick for game MVP is Rueben Chinyelu of Florida, and while I expect Kentucky to keep it close on its home court, the Gators are my pick.
Score: Florida 89, Kentucky 85
Jack Pilgrim
Last year’s SEC opener at Rupp Arena was an instant classic, a 106-100 win for Kentucky before Florida’s national championship run. I expect a similar environment with so much on the line for the Wildcats on Senior Day for Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen with eyes on a single or double bye in Nashville. The Gators were just too much to handle in the first Valentine’s Day meeting down in Gainesville, but needed 43 combined points and nine made 3-pointers between Xaivian Lee and Urban Klavzar — 21 points more than their season average. Can the team that averages just 7.6 threes per game (No. 203 nationally) fall back to earth after hitting 10 in round one? How does Malachi Moreno respond after mostly neutralizing Rueben Chinyelu in that first battle — can he do it again? Does superstar forward Thomas Haugh play at all after missing his last outing with an ankle injury? Todd Golden’s group already has the SEC regular season crown and No. 1 seed locked up, so that’s something to monitor, too, after winning their last two games by a combined 68 points.
Point being, we’ve seen this Kentucky team rise to the occasion with its back against the wall. Mark Pope is known to pull a rabbit out of his hat every so often, and now is the perfect opportunity. Win the game, end Florida’s hot streak, avoid Wednesday in Nashville, send Oweh and Aberdeen out with a bang.
I think they find a way to get it done, against all odds. Aberdeen is game MVP against his old team.
Score: Kentucky 84, Florida 81
Adam Luckett
Florida continues to roll and dominate. Kentucky played about as bad as you could play for the middle 20 minutes against Texas A&M. There’s no way the Cats could bounce-back and pull off a big home upset. Think again.
Florida star Thomas Haugh missed the midweek game against Mississippi State. His status will be worth monitoring this weekend. Meanwhile, UK strangely matched up well with the Gators in this season’s previous meeting. That was with the Gators pouring in 10 threes and shooting 32 free throws. Getting to both of those numbers again at Rupp Arena feels highly unlikely.
Kentucky has shot it well from three in recent home games, held their own against teams that dominate the glass (Florida, Tennessee, Auburn) in SEC play, and owns the two-point defense (top-100 nationally, No. 4 in the SEC) to give the Gators some problems at the rim.
Kentucky needs to win the three-point battle by 10-plus points. There is a path to getting there. Both teams will play with pace and Kentucky will be comfortable with the tempo. That will equal some open shots. Kentucky hits enough, Florida throws up some bricks from three, and the rim defense gives the Cats a chance to win the game in the final segment.
This team wins it in the final segment because that is just what they do. The roller coaster season continues. Kentucky clinches the No. 4 seed in the SEC Tournament after Arkansas beats Missouri and Vanderbilt beats Tennessee. The Nashville party starts on Friday afternoon.
Score: Kentucky 83, Florida 77
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Kentucky vs. Florida: How to Watch, Listen
Tipoff: Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN (Tom Hart, Jimmy Dykes, Dick Vitale)
Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
FM: 98.1 WBUL
Online: iHeart Radio
Sirius XM: 84
You can also follow along on the KSR LIVE BLOG, which will start a few hours before tipoff, and join the conversation on KSBoard.
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