As UCF gears up for this week’s Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament, the Knights find themselves in a challenging situation.

Three consecutive losses have significantly impacted the team’s NCAA Tournament hopes.

Once seen as a solid contender for a spot in the 68-team field, UCF has now shifted to the precarious status of a bubble team, teetering on the edge of tournament eligibility as they head into this week’s games.

UCF (20-10, 9-9 Big 12) secured the eighth-seed, earning a first-round bye in the conference tournament, which kicked off Tuesday at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. The Knights will face the winner of 9th-seeded Cincinnati and 16th-seeded Utah on Wednesday (3 p.m., ESPNU).

That game could play a crucial role in whether UCF earns a spot in the NCAA Tournament field, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.

“One win and they should be safe. Two wins should help them avoid Dayton [First Four]. That would be the prescription for them,” said Lunardi.

“My thought on UCF all year has been that their resume was somehow tracking a little better than they are at basketball. I mean, they’re certainly at an NCAA tournament level, but not single-digit seed level, at least to my eyes.”

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UCF finished the regular season ranked 51st in the latest NCAA NET rankings, which are among the criteria used by the selection committee to determine the tournament field. The Knights enter this week with five Quad 1 wins, including victories over Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas Tech, TCU and BYU.

The Knights have been projected as a 7th- to an 11-thseed in some of the latest bracketology projections. Lunardi has UCF listed as one of the last Four Byes in his projections, but that could change throughout the week.

“If you were to ask me a power conference team that seems to be safe, that wouldn’t make it; it would be a coin flip between SMU and UCF,” Lunardi added.

SMU (19-12, 8-10 ACC) is ranked 39th in the NET rankings with four Quad 1 wins, but had lost four straight games heading into the ACC Tournament.

Meanwhile, the Knights find themselves in the unenviable position of facing a must-win game on Wednesday. If not, then it could be up to the basketball gods.

“[A loss] and it’s going to be a long wait,” said Lunardi. “Now, you’re bringing in things beyond your control. There were five bid thieves two years ago and some very safe teams ended up playing in the NIT Championship Game with Seton Hall and Indiana State.”

For now, UCF must focus on returning to an earlier form before losing six of its last nine games.

Please find me on X, Bluesky or Instagram @osmattmurschel. Email: mmurschel@orlandosentinel.com. Sign up for the Sentinel’s Knights Weekly newsletter for a roundup of all our UCF coverage.