March 12, 2026, 12:11 a.m. ET
The No. 24 Louisville Cardinals (23-9) and Miami Hurricanes (24-7) meet Thursday in an Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament quarterfinal in Charlotte, North Carolina. The opening tip at Spectrum Center is at 2:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Louisville vs. Miami odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals advanced to the quarterfinals with a 62-58 win Wednesday over the No. 11 SMU Mustangs. Louisville failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites as the Under (164.5) cashed. G Ryan Conwell scored 16 points and hit 2 key shots in the final 1:17 to help seal the win. G Adrian Wooley added 14 points. The Cardinals took advantage at the free-throw line, attempting 17 more free throws and scoring 13 more points from the stripe.
The Hurricanes finished 13-5 in ACC play this season, earning the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament. Miami closed the regular season Saturday with a 92-89 loss to Louisville, failing to cover as 1.5-point home favorites as the Over (156.5) cashed. The Hurricanes bring a balanced team into the tournament, ranking fifth in both offensive and defensive efficiency in the ACC this season.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last update at 12:01 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Louisville -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Miami +115 (bet $100 to win $115)Against the spread (ATS): Louisville -1.5 (-118) | Miami +1.5 (-102)Over/Under (O/U): 154.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Louisville at Miami picks and predictionsPrediction
Miami 81, Louisville 77
BET MIAMI (+115).
Miami comes into this matchup looking for some revenge after a 3-point loss to the Cardinals to end the regular season. The Hurricanes actually played well offensively in that game, shooting 56.4% from the field. Despite the loss, Miami won 7 of its last 9 games and covered 4 of its last 5.
Under first-year coach Jai Lucas, Miami has leaned on a balanced scoring attack that averages 82.7 points per game, led by F Malik Reneau (19.0 PPG), G Tre Donaldson (16.8), and F Shelton Henderson (13.9). The offense has been very efficient as well, ranking seventh in the nation in field goal percentage at .523 while averaging 16.6 assists per game.
Miami also creates problems defensively by forcing turnovers at a high rate. With Louisville struggling against the spread lately, the Hurricanes look like a good spot to bounce back and even the score.
PASS.
It’s understandable if you would feel more comfortable taking Miami +1.5 (-102), but I like the Hurricanes to win outright with plus odds.
BET OVER 154.5 (-105).
The Over has cashed in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. Louisville had a quiet offensive game against SMU, but that likely won’t happen again. Miami has also seen the Over hit in 3 of its last 5 games, and both teams average more than 80 points per game, setting up a potential shootout.
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