The Virginia Cavaliers hung on despite a late surge from N.C. State on Thursday afternoon to advance to the semifinals in the ACC tournament.
The Wolfpack started the game hot from behind the arc and held a 22-16 lead midway through the first half, but Virginia was able to claw its way back and take a lead going into the half, 33-32. The second half was highlighted by timely three-point shots from a number of Cavaliers and the brick wall that is Ugonna Onyenso, who came off the bench and contributed eight points, six boards, and eight blocks for the ’Hoos. Onyenso was the MVP of this one and a big reason why Ryan Odom has his team in the semifinals.
Their date with the Hurricanes on Friday night at 7:00 PM is the second of the year, with Virginia taking home the first, 86-83, in Charlottesville. Miami had one of its best shooting days against the ’Hoos that afternoon, but with the help of Jacari White, Chance Mallory, Malik Thomas, Sam Lewis, Thijs De Ridder, and Johann Grunloh, totalling over ten points each, they were able to squeak out a victory and send Jai Lucas and Miami home with a loss.
Miami also had a double bye heading into the conference tournament and claimed the 3 seed. Their 78-73 win over the Louisville Cardinals on Thursday didn’t come without stress, as Louisville had a one-point advantage after twenty minutes. A quick 12-3 run coming out of the locker room for the Canes gave them some wiggle room while being led by Malik Reneau’s 24 points. Louisville climbed back to make it a one-point game with just under six to play, but that was the closest they got by the time the clock struck zero.
Tru Washington had 17 points, Tre Donaldson added 14 of his own, and Shelton Henderson added 9 points and 8 boards.
This matchup on Friday night is a great one. Miami’s bread and butter is taking the ball to the hole and being efficient in and around the paint. They are top-25 in the country in field-goal percentage inside the 3-point arc and are top-10 in the nation in overall shooting percentage at 50.6%.
While they do have a decent ranking in 3-point field goal percentage at just over 35%, tenth in the ACC, they aren’t taking many per game as they are dead last in the ACC in three-point makes on the season, totaling just 208.
Virginia’s key in this one will be to keep its big men out of foul trouble. Johann Grunloh struggled with that against N.C. State in the quarterfinals with two in the first half, which made him sit for the remainder of the period, and he committed his third less than a minute into the second half. Grunloh, Onyenso, and De Ridder have to make it a point to guard well and help defend the paint without fouling Miami’s attempts to get to the basket.
Miami is also last in the conference in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to fire at nearly a 36% rate, which also happens to be Virginia’s average. I expect the ’Hoos to try and keep this trend rolling as they did in the first matchup, shooting 12-24 from deep.
The viewers should be in for a great matchup in this one as Virginia opened up as a 3.5-pt favorite according to the pros in Vegas.
Prediction: Virginia 83 Miami 77