Keagan Smith dives into his pick and prediction for the Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat game on Saturday’s NBA slate.

Saturday’s NBA slate tips off early, but there’s still action throughout the evening that may catch some attention. The Battle of Florida takes place at 8 p.m. EST as the Orlando Magic duel the Miami Heat in South Beach, setting the stage for an in-state rivalry matchup.

Here’s a Magic vs. Heat prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Saturday’s contest.

Magic vs. Heat prediction, preview

Orlando Magic

The Magic have moved up to fifth in the Eastern Conference at 37-28 thanks to an excellent six-game winning streak and 8-2 record over their last 10 outings.

They’re 13th in NETRTG at +1.6 and continue to lean on defense as has become central to the team’s identity over the last couple of seasons. Since the All-Star break though, Orlando’s NETRTG rises to +9.7, good for fifth in the entire league. Overall this season, the group produces 115.6 PPG with average shooting splits of 46.5% overall and 34.6% from beyond the arc. A 1.959 AST/ TO ratio borders on the top 10, and the Magic are 15th in rebounding with 43.8 boards per game. Defensively, they concede an average of 114.0 PPG, 11th-fewest, and sit ninth in DEFRTG as well.

Paolo Banchero’s 22.2 points are a team-best, as are his 8.6 rebounds per game. Co-star Franz Wagner remains out alongside Anthony Black and Jonathan Isaac, unfortunately leaving the team without two of its three best scorers and a standout defender. That means Jalen Suggs (14.1 points, 5.3 assists) and Wendell Carter Jr. (11.6 points, 7.6 rebounds) are likely to take on larger roles in this one. Tristan Da Silva could do the same, averaging 9.6 points and shooting 39.3% from deep.

Miami Heat

The Heat are on a long seven-game winning streak themselves and are 38-29 on the campaign. However, they were leapfrogged in the Eastern Conference standings by tonight’s opponent and surely want to get a game in hand on the Magic.

With a +3.8 NETRTG, the Heat sit ninth in the league in the stat. Much like Orlando, they’re actually far better since the All-Star break with a +11.2 NETRTG, good for third in the Association over this span. However, Miami relies on an explosive offense with 120.5 PPG, second-most of any team. While shooting only 46.4% overall and 36.1% from deep, the Heat put up more shots than any other franchise and push the pace in transition and in the paint. They also average 28.6 assists with a 2.059 AST/TO ratio, both of which are top six in the league. They’re strong on the boards with 47.3 rebounds per game, and while the defense appears weaker with 116.5 PPG allowed to opponents, the Heat are actually fourth in DEFRTG.

Norman Powell leads the team in scoring with 22.5 PPG while shooting 39.0% from deep, and fellow guard Tyler Herro posts 22.1 points with 3.7 assists and excellent shooting splits of a 50.0% FG% and a 40.2% 3P%. Bam Adebayo dropped 83 points in an incredible showing this past week and produces 20.0 points with a team-best 9.8 rebounds. Fellow big man Kel’el Ware adds 11.3 points with 9.4 boards, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Pelle Larsson contribute double-digit scoring. However, forward Andrew Wiggins is out tonight.

Heat vs. Magic pick, best bet

DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Heat as -4.5 home favorites today with -192 odds on the Moneyline. The Magic are listed at +160 odds on the ML with the game total set at 237.5 combined points.

These sides have already met four times this season, with Orlando taking all four matchups in hand. They’ve typically been close contests, decided by margins of 125-121, 206-105, 117-108 and 133-124.

Will anything change in the fifth meeting of the season between these sides? Given how hot the Magic are at the moment, maybe not. It’s become clear that they’re capable of slowing Miami down on a couple of occasions and forcing the league leaders in pace to creep to a half. The Heat haven’t even shot that poorly in any matchup at 45.2% or above in each; Orlando just manages to either match its opponent in the scoring column on the higher-output nights or drag them into the mud.

Granted, this looks a little different with Wagner and Black both out. There’s still a lot of firepower in the Miami rotation to match, and without their second and third-leading scorers, the Magic are going to need offensive production from other sources. I don’t necessarily think they win today given the missing pieces, but I do believe they’ll manage to cover at an alt line of +5.5. It’s truly a shame that one of these winning streaks must come to an end, but that’s life for you in the NBA.

Top pick: ORL Magic +5.5 (-132)