Manufacturing activity continued to expand in the Jacksonville area in February but local manufacturers are uncertain about future growth, according to a monthly survey by the University of North Florida’s Local Economic Indicators Project.
A Purchasing Managers’ Index derived from the survey of Northeast Florida manufacturers registered 52.4 for the second straight month in February, signaling modest expansion.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and a number below 50 shows contraction. The PMI was below 50 for much of 2025.
While manufacturers indicate activity has picked up this year, the survey’s Business Activity Outlook dropped to 49, suggesting manufacturers on balance are slightly pessimistic about conditions over the next 12 months.
UNF economist Albert Loh said comments from responders indicated some are seeing a bump up in demand but many are concerned about costs.
Albert Loh
“Input prices were clearly rising, while output prices were flat, which suggests firms may be facing pressure on margins because they cannot fully pass higher costs on to customers,” Loh said in his monthly report on the survey.
“Rising new orders and expanding backlogs suggest that demand has not disappeared, and the increase in export orders is another encouraging sign for a trade-oriented market like Jacksonville,” he said.
“At the same time, firms appear to be staying active in purchasing inputs and holding materials, which usually reflects preparation for continued production.”
The survey’s Employment Index continued to show contraction at 48 in February.
That suggests “firms are reluctant to hire aggressively even while other activity measures are improving. That mix fits with broader worries about tariff-related cost increases, softer market conditions, recession risk, and policy uncertainty,” Loh said.
“While Jacksonville’s February PMI shows expansion and gives some reason for optimism, it is still an environment shaped by caution, cost pressure, and concern about whether growth can be sustained,” he said.
“Even though the business activity outlook index slipped to 49, just below neutral, current conditions still show enough expansion to suggest the local economy has not stalled. In that sense, Jacksonville manufacturers seem to be moving forward, but carefully.”