Updated March 17, 2026, 3:51 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning (40-21-4) and the Seattle Kraken (31-26-9) meet Tuesday at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington. Puck drop is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT / HBO Max). Let’s analyze NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Kraken and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

2024-25 season series: Lightning won 2-0; Tampa Bay leads all-time series 7-1, including 4-0 in Seattle

The Lightning suffered a 4-2 loss as a moderate favorite (-126) at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa on Saturday against the Carolina Hurricanes. G Andrei Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 34 shots. Tampa Bay slipped to 1-3-0 in its past 4 games and 2-7-0 in its previous 9. Tampa Bay is 4 points back of the Buffalo Sabres for first place in the Atlantic Division, but the Lightning have 2 games in hand.

The Kraken pounded the visiting Florida Panthers 6-2 on Sunday as a slight underdogs (-102). The Over (6) cashed as RW Kaapo Kakko had a goal and 2 assists, including a helper on the power play. Seattle has won 2 in a row to follow up a 4-game losing streak. The Over is 3-1-1 in the Kraken’s past 5 outings.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Lightning at Kraken odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:25 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Lightning -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Kraken +155 (bet $100 to win $155)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning -1.5 (+130) | Kraken +1.5 (-155)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)Lightning at Kraken projected goalies

Andrei Vasilevskiy (29-12-3, 2.36 GAA, .911 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Philipp Grubauer (12-8-3, 2.52 GAA, .913 SV%)

Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 34 shots against Carolina last time out on Saturday, dropping him to 2-4-0 in 6 March starts despite a still-respectable 2.87 GAA and .899 SV%. He allowed a single goal on 37 shots in a 4-1 win Feb. 23, 2025 in his only start against Seattle last season.

Grubauer gave up 2 goals on 34 shots on Saturday, a 5-2 win at Vancouver to end a 4-game winless streak. He owns a 5-5-1 record in 13 career games against the Lightning, sporting a .907 save percentage and 3.02 GAA. He surrendered 4 goals on 30 shots in his lone game against Tampa Bay last season, a 5-1 loss at home.

Lightning at Kraken picks and predictionsPrediction

Lightning 4, Kraken 2

The LIGHTNING (-190) are just a little too expensive for my liking, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. However, if you use a boost or promo, or if you were to fold Tampa Bay into a multi-leg parlay, that would be perfectly OK.

A better play is rolling with the LIGHTNING -1.5 (+130), although there is still plenty of risk. The Lightning have been skidding lately, going just 2-7-0 in their past 9 games. However, Tampa Bay has also dominated this series, winning 7 of the 8 all-time meetings. And, in 4 all-time meetings in Seattle, the Lightning have outscored the Kraken 17-6, winning 3 of those games by at least 3 goals.

I expect the total (6) to come right down on the number, so AVOID playing this at a flat 6.

However, if you really want some action on the total, OVER 5.5 – ALTERNATE TOTAL (-155) is the lean, but go rather lightly.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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