Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Mar 17, 2026 , 10:42 PM ET
• 4 min read
The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks get to prove they’re worthy of a spot in the Big Dance when they face the SMU Mustangs in the First Four. Jason Logan won’t deny their winning ways — or SMU’s bad 3-point defense.
Photo By – Reuters Connect.
The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are the most polarizing team in the Field of 68. After an unblemished 31-0 record through a “Charmin soft” schedule, the RedHawks came up short in the MAC tournament.
That loss sparked the biggest debate heading into Selection Sunday: Does Miami (Ohio) deserve an at-large bid?
My SMU vs. Miami (Ohio) predictions believe the RedHawks are deserving of a spot in the Big Dance, and my March Madness picks go all in on the underdogs.
SMU vs Miami (OH) prediction
Who will win SMU vs Miami (OH)?
For as much fuss as the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks stirred up on Selection Sunday, the SMU Mustangs’ spot in the Field of 68 is just as debatable.
Southern Methodist has been bad in recent weeks (one win in the past six games), but made the cut based on its strength of schedule and a couple of marquee wins from two months ago. The RedHawks are a winning basketball team with something to prove.
SMU vs Miami (OH) best bet: Miami (Ohio) Moneyline (+215)
Miami (Ohio) is a winning basketball team, and despite not having a stellar SOS, it took everyone’s best during MAC competition — especially in those final few games of conference play.
Much like how those foes were incentivized to end the RedHawks’ streak, Travis Steele’s squad is now motivated to prove it belongs in the Big Dance. It’ll give SMU everything it’s got in Dayton, with its stellar 3-point shooting being a big factor.
Speaking of which, SMU stinks away from home. The Mustangs were 5-9 SU away from Dallas this season.
COVERS INTEL: Miami (Ohio) is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, knocking down 9.8 3PM on 37.5% shooting (21st). SMU is poor at protecting the perimeter, allowing 9.8 triples per game — 12th most in Div-I.
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SMU vs Miami (OH) same-game parlay
Peter Suder attempted only eight shots in each of the final two games for the RedHawks, putting up 13 and 10 points. However, he’s a much more active member of this offense (averaging almost 15 points), and forecasts call for 14+ points Wednesday.
Eian Elmer is one of the biggest 3-point threats on Miami (Ohio), banging home a team high in triples this season. SMU doesn’t protect the perimeter and a big game calls for big shots.
SMU vs Miami (OH) SGP
Miami (Ohio) moneyline
Peter Suder Over 12.5 points
Eian Elmer Over 2.5 threes
Our Big Dance SGP: Miami (Ohio) heat check
The RedHawks are one of the best teams from beyond the arc, and there are plenty of triples to go around against a SMU defense that won’t get its heels above the 3-point arc.
SMU vs Miami (OH) SGP
Miami (Ohio) moneyline
Eian Elmer Over 2.5 threes
Brant Beyers Over threes
Peter Suder Over threes
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SMU vs Miami (OH) odds
Spread: SMU -7 | Miami (OH) +7
Moneyline: SMU -300 | Miami (OH) +215
Over/Under: Over 164 | Under 164
SMU vs Miami (OH) betting trend to know
The Mustangs are 8-12 ATS as favorites this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for SMU vs. Miami (OH).
How to watch SMU vs Miami (OH)
Location
UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Date
Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Tip-off
9:15 p.m. ET
TV
truTV
SMU vs Miami (OH) key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
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