March 17, 2026, 11:10 p.m. ET
The SMU Mustangs (20-13) and the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (31-1) meet Wednesday in a First 4 NCAA Tournament game. Tip-off from UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, is scheduled for 9:15 p.m. ET (truTV). Let’s analyze NCAA basketball odds around the SMU vs. Miami (OH) odds and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions for the best bets.
SMU enters the tournament after a mixed stretch to close the season. The Mustangs lost their final 4 regular-season games, but bounced back briefly in the ACC Tournament, opening with an 86-69 win over the Syracuse Orange before falling 62-58 to the Louisville Cardinals in the second round.
Against the betting numbers, SMU has been inconsistent lately, going 4-6 against the spread (ATS) in its last 10 games while the total has gone 6-4 over that span.
Senior G Boopie Miller has been the engine of the offense all season. The All-ACC Second Team selection averages 19.2 points and 6.4 assists per game, ranking among the conference leaders in both categories.
This will be the Mustangs 13th NCAA Tournament appearance and their first since 2017. This also marks SMU’s first at-large bid since 1993.
Miami (Ohio) capped off a historic season, although it didn’t end the way the RedHawks hoped. After a perfect regular season (31-0), Miami’s undefeated run came to an end with an 87-83 loss to the UMass Minutemen in the Mid-American Conference Tournament quarterfinals.
Even with the late stumble, Miami earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament — the program’s first appearance since 2007 and the MAC’s first at-large selection since 1999. The RedHawks set program and MAC records for the best start to a season, longest winning streak and most consecutive conference wins. The team finished with the most wins in school history and became just the fifth Division I program this century to complete the regular season undefeated.
Recent betting results haven’t been as dominant. Miami has failed to cover the spread in its last 4 games and has split totals 5-5 over its last 10 contests.
These 2 universities have never met on the college basketball court. The winner becomes the No. 16 seed in the Midwest Region and will face the No. 6 seed Tennessee Volunteers Friday.
– Rankings: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll
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Watch NCAA basketball on Fubo!SMU vs. Miami (Ohio) odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:07 p.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): SMU -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Miami (Ohio) +240 (bet $100 to win $240)Against the spread: SMU -7.5 (-102) | Miami (Ohio) +7.5 (-118)Over/Under (O/U): 163.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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SMU vs. Miami (Ohio) picks and predictionsPrediction
SMU 87, Miami (Ohio) 82
PASS.
This matchup has the makings of a fast-paced shootout that could come down to the final possessions. Instead of chasing the moneyline, the safer play here is taking the points with the spread.
BET MIAMI (Ohio) +7.5 (-118).
This First 4 matchup features 2 teams that can fill it up offensively, setting the stage for a fast-paced battle in Dayton.
SMU enters with an offense that can be dangerous when it’s clicking. The Mustangs ranked third in the ACC in adjusted offensive efficiency during conference play and shot better than 40% from 3-point range. When their perimeter shots are falling, SMU can score quickly and in bunches, which has helped them stay competitive against stronger competition throughout the season.
Miami (Ohio), meanwhile, built its identity around one of the most efficient offenses in the country. The RedHawks ranked near the top nationally in 2-point percentage and were among the best teams at protecting the basketball, creating a steady flow of quality scoring chances. Their balanced attack features multiple scoring threats, led by MAC Player of the Year Peter Suder, making the offense difficult to key on.
With both teams capable of putting points on the board, this game should stay tight throughout. Miami’s offensive efficiency should keep the pressure on, but SMU’s experience and shot-making ability could help the Mustangs sneak out a close win.
BET OVER 163.5 (-115).
This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring game. Both teams have consistently pushed the pace this season, ranking inside the top 50 nationally in possessions per game. That tempo has translated into plenty of points.
The RedHawks were one of the most explosive offenses in the country, averaging 90.7 PPG — second nationally — and finishing 19-10 to the Over this season. SMU can score as well, ranking 23rd nationally at 84.3 PPG while posting a 19-14 record to the Over.
Both teams have also gone Over the total in 2 of their last 3 games. With 2 fast-paced offenses that like to run, this matchup sets up well for another high-scoring result.
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