INDIANAPOLIS — No, this is not the playoff race the Heat were hoping for at the start of the season, to be sitting here, with two weeks to play, mired in their annual winter home, the play-in bracket, and at the bottom of that bracket, no less.
But this is where they stand after their two-game series in Cleveland against the Cavaliers, including Friday night’s worst-ever defensive performance, facing the reality of having to play in the days immediately after their April 12 regular-season finale against the Atlanta Hawks, with teams with direct entry into the playoffs otherwise getting that week off.
Such are the spoils for teams that finish Nos. 1-6 in each conference, a reality the Heat have not experienced in any of the past three seasons, with three consecutive trips to the play-in round.
So it remains a wild ride, one that had them at No. 8 in the East after defeating the Cavaliers on Wednesday night and then down at No. 10 (also known as the final play-in berth) before they lost to the Cavaliers on Friday night.
“It can be crazy, when everybody is just locked in at very similar records,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said of the dense pack from No. 5 through No. 10 in the East, the six teams separated by 2 1/2 games entering the weekend “But we don’t want to obsess about all that.”
It also is hard not to, as this rollercoaster of a Heat season that careened between the seven-game winning streak and then six losses in the seven games that now have followed directly after.
“I mean, around this time of the year, you pay attention to it a lot, especially where we’re at in the standings,” guard Norman Powell said.
“Really, every team in that group is really fighting to maintain or get out of the play-in. You’re watching it really closely. But honestly, we’ve just got to focus on what we can control and what we have to do and how we have to play that’s going to give us the best opportunity.”
So minding their own games … while also sneaking peaks.
“We’re watching for sure,” guard Tyler Herro said. “It’s like it’s a part of the NBA. It’s the time of year that everyone loves, right? Like it’s what you want to play for at the end. You know, all these games have meaning.”
For the Heat, that is the stark reality the rest of the way.
So, now, eight to play.
Some of it in the Heat’s control.
Some of it not.
Sunday at Pacers: Not only is Indiana deeply invested in the NBA’s tankathon, but are in a unique position in the race to the bottom, in the wake of their acquisition of center Ivica Zubac from the Los Angeles Clippers at February’s NBA trade deadline.
As a condition of that trade, the Pacers keep their first-round pick in June only if it falls from Nos. 1-4 or Nos. 10-30.
So finishing with one of the league’s four worst records would appear paramount, with Indiana currently a league-worst 16-58.
That said, the Pacers won at Orlando this past Monday and on Jan. 10 routed the visiting Heat 123-99.
Considering the Heat already have lost this season to the tanking Pacers, Kings and Jazz, a Sunday loss in Indiana seemingly would be an emotional blow ever more devastating than Friday’s in Cleveland.
Monday vs. 76ers: The winner of this matchup will win the season-series tiebreaker, with the teams having split the first two meetings in the three-game series. That essentially could make it a two-way swing, with the Heat and 76ers battling for the same spots.
But while the 76ers are idle Sunday, the Heat will be playing Monday on the second night of a back-to-back set. Then again, the Heat are 11-4 on the second night of such pairings.
In it possible on Monday that the 76ers will be whole, Tyrese Maxey returning from a finger injury, Paul George back from NBA suspension and Joel Embiid again playing.
A play-in matchup could yet follow between the two teams.
Wednesday vs. Celtics: There will be plenty at stake for Boston, which remains locked in a battle for the No. 2 seed in the East with New York.
The Celtics, now bolstered by the return of Jayson Tatum, will be idle the night before, as will the Heat.
Not only do the Celtics lead the season series 3-0, but have overcome 19- and 22-point deficits in two of those games.
April 4 vs. Wizards: The Heat will conclude the three-game homestand with the first meeting since center Bam Adebayo scored 83 against the Wizards on March 10.
Considering the ridicule directed at the Wizards’ players and coach Brian Keefe, this could wind up being more emotional than a typical playoff-race home game against a tanking team.
And while the Wizards are in full tank mode at 17-55, it is possible they will be virtually locked into a bottom-four lottery seed by this one (the teams with the four worst records have equal odds in the lottery).
April 7, April 9 at Raptors: The question will be whether the Raptors will have distanced themselves in the play-in/playoff race by this stage, currently three games ahead of the Heat in the loss column.
Even if the Heat sweep to tie the season series 2-2, they likely would lose the tiebreaker at the next level, with the Raptors holding a superior conference record.
April 10 at Wizards: So if the Wizards don’t make a statement against the Heat in the April 4 meeting in Miami, do they make it here?
At this stage, the Wizards should firmly be locked into their lottery position, creating the rare opportunity for a tanking team to play to win.
Both teams will be in action the night before, with the Heat in Toronto and the Wizards at home against the Bulls.
April 12 vs. Hawks: The final game of the regular season could find the tiebreaker with the Hawks in play, with the Heat up 2-1 in the four-game season series.
Based on how tightly the teams are packed in the middle of the East, this game figures to have postseason implications on both sides, with both teams idle the night before.
IN THE LANE
MOVING TARGET: While there certainly is something to be said about a league pivoting amid changing times, the NBA does tend to get ahead of itself. For example, with teams locked into payrolls for multiple years going forward, the league in the latest CBA added the punitive luxury-tax aprons, making some contracts already on the books unduly onerous. Now, amid lottery chicanery as exemplified by the ongoing tankathon at the bottom of the standings, comes Commissioner Adam Silver‘s vow to drastically alter the lottery by next year. The intent is laudable. The rush is lamentable. Take the Heat, who owe the Hornets either a lottery-protected first-round pick in 2027 or an unprotected pick in 2028. Based on leaks of potential revisions to the lottery, that could have consequences unintended by the Heat when they made that deal with Charlotte in 2024. Indeed, the Heat could finish No. 18 in 2028 and under one reported lottery proposal still see that go to the Hornets as a possible lottery pick. Doing the right thing is one thing; doing it in midstream, amid so many picks having previously been dealt under a different set of rules, is another.
THE ROZIER FACTOR: With the possibility of all first-round picks becoming more valuable by having greater lottery potential, one has to wonder now about the league’s settlement of the Terry Rozier contretemps between the Heat and Hornets. With the Heat not made aware of the gambling investigation of Rozier prior to that trade, the NBA’s resolution earlier this month was forwarding a Hornets second-round pick in this June’s draft to the Heat, a tacit acknowledgement of the Heat being shortchanged. But now the first-round pick owed to the Hornets in 2027 or ’28 potentially stands to be even more valuable, as Rozier stands within days of being waived by the Heat without playing this season. The compensation no longer seems quite as just a mere two weeks after being awarded.
‘PLAY MOR GAMEZ’: Like those Chick-fil-A signs that dot many NBA arenas, the ones that read, “Eat Mor Chikin,” the NBA could use ones that say, “Play Mor Gamez.” Such is the intersection of the rules regarding tanking and award requirements that Silver was left to address after the Board of Governors meeting this past week. On one hand, teams increasingly are sitting out players to increase lottery odds, with the latest issue being Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s desire to get back on the court for the Milwaukee Bucks. On the other hand is the appeal to Silver about Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham likely missing out on All-NBA due to the rule requiring 65 games of action to qualify for awards. Enough. The NBA is a league marketed on a star system. Players should play. The real debate should involve those seemingly with no say: the fans who buy tickets not knowing who is going to play on a night-to-night basis. Paying to see Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick in The Producers and getting G League-level fill-ins doesn’t seem quite right. (And if the counter argument is there are too many games, then play fewer games, which still would provide the current inventory to fulfill the national-television requirements,)
NUMBER
5. Players who have reached at least 4,000 points and 600 blocked shots before the end of their third season, milestones San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama reached in last Sunday’s victory over Heat at Kaseya Center. On that list, he joined Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and a pair of former Heat centers, Alonzo Mourning and Shaquille O’Neal. Wembanyama did it in fewer games than any player on that list other than Robinson. (Keeping in mind that the league began charting blocked shots in 1973-74, after the Wilt Chamberlain era.)