The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the New Orleans Saints to help you craft a winning lineup.
Check out the FREE Start/Sit Optimizer from PFSN to ensure you are making the right decisions for your fantasy lineup every week!
Baker Mayfield, QB
The injuries ultimately caught up to the Buccaneers on Monday night, especially with the game script falling out of favor in Detroit.
When all was said and done, Baker Mayfield threw 50 passes, but only accounted for one score and 228 yards. After completing multiple passes of 20+ air yards in each of the first six weeks this season, Mayfield went 0-for-9 on those deep shots, and there’s certainly the risk of more games like that coming up with Mike Evans (broken collarbone) potentially done for the season.
Those are concerns for another day. Emeka Egbuka certainly appeared to be healthy, and he alone should help put Mayfield into the starter conversation against a Saints defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in pass TD%, passer rating, and yards per pass this season.
Bucky Irving, RB
Bucky Irving was ruled out well in advance of last week, and that’s not a great sign. The Bucs are aware of what Irving offers, so it stands that they will be cautious.
In a weird way, this is good for us. Having to replace a borderline first-round pick is a pain, but losing him mid-game because he rushed back is even worse. Tampa Bay goes on bye next week, and thanks to their success up to this point, it makes sense that they’ve ruled him out for this game with an eye on the future.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 8 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
With their record being what it is, it wouldn’t shock me if the team targets Week 10 as a return date.
You want him back into his bell cow role, not for this meeting with the Saints, but for his next one, a part of a very light December schedule (Saints-Falcons-Panthers-Dolphins).
Rachaad White, RB
It’s been very clear that the Buccaneers view Rachaad White as their RB2, a role that is getting plenty of work with Irving sidelined.
It’s also obvious that White is the limited player he has been in the past. In his three games this month, none of his 41 carries have picked up more than 12 yards (3.5 yards per carry), but he’s caught 11-of-13 targets, and that’s enough for PPR managers.
With Irving set to miss at least one more game, White again slides into the “you don’t have to watch it, but you have to play it” RB2 tier. It’s rarely fun, and I’m generally more in on White in coin flip/underdog spots, but the 14-20 touch role is pretty tough to ignore on a week like this, schedule-wise.
Sean Tucker, RB
If the Buccaneers wanted to get Sean Tucker involved, they would.
White continues to be inefficient as a runner, and yet, this coaching staff is making no effort to get Tucker involved (October: 14 touches for 30 yards).
If you rostered Tucker when Irving initially got hurt, it made sense. I’d hold him until you are assured that you have a Week 8 lineup you feel good about. Once that’s the case, feel free to cut ties (Tampa Bay goes on bye in Week 9).
The only reason I suggest holding until you feel good about where things sit for this week is that if there is a script to work in Tucker’s favor, this is it (5.5-point road favorite).
Chris Godwin, WR
The fibula cost Chris Godwin Monday night and continues to be labeled as “week-to-week” following this setback from the serious injury he suffered a season ago.
The lack of clarity (out this week with an unknown timeline) and Mayfield’s raw ability require us to hold onto the veteran receiver, but this is a playoff team motivated to play the long game.
As of this writing, I’m not confident that I rank Godwin as a viable starter at any point for the remainder of this season, but we can’t act on that.
Not just yet.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
A week ago, there was a discussion about how much time Egbuka would miss due to a hamstring injury.
Over the weekend, it became clear that there was a chance he’d suit up on Monday night in Detroit.
Fast forward, and the rookie sees a season-high 12 passes thrown his way and sees his value to this team spike beyond where it already stood after Evans broke his collarbone late in the first half of the 24-9 loss.
Egbuka wasn’t effective at the level that we’ve come to expect in Week 17 (58 yards on 12 targets), but I think we can cut him some slack when you consider all of the moving pieces.
This is a great spot for him to get on the same page as Mayfield and reestablish himself as a top 15 receiver for the remainder of the season. The bye comes next week, and the hope is that Egbuka is back to his early-season form for a favorable finishing stretch that is highlighted by games vs. the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins during the final two weeks of our season.
Mike Evans, WR
Evans returned from three straight DNP’s due to a hamstring injury and looked reasonably healthy.
That is, until he landed hard late in the second quarter and broke his collarbone. For now, you’re keeping him stashed until we get confirmation that his season is over, but early reports suggest that it’s possible.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
Even if it’s not, the odds seem long that he will play a full complement of snaps during the remainder of the fantasy season. This is a tough blow for one of the better players of a generation, but Mayfield is going to continue to throw the ball, and this opens up interesting waivers on the waiver wire.
Leading Target Earners Post Evans Injury
Egbuka: 10
Tez Johnson: 8
Cade Otton: 7
Sterling Shepard: 5
Kam Johnson: 1
Tez Johnson, WR
Tez Johnson has scored in consecutive games, and while he’s roughly the same build as a fantasy sports researcher, he makes for a nice midseason add to your roster.
It’s unlikely that he scores every week, but he did wrap his collegiate career with a pair of 80+ catch, 10-TD seasons at Oregon. He’s averaging 17 yards per catch in his limited run this season. He should have some single coverage situations to attack with plenty of attention likely to be paid toward his fellow rookie, Egbuka.
Egbuka is the clear WR1 in this offense, and Cade Otton holds more value than Johnson due to the position he plays, but I’ve got him just inside my top 40 at the position and ahead of the other fill-in options on this roster.
Cade Otton, TE
Otton has never been a high-end target earner, but he’s being pressed into chain-moving duties with the receivers around him dropping like flies.
It’s not the highest of thresholds, but there are only two tight ends in the NFL with 50+ receiving yards in each of their past three games, and Otton is one of them.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
Travis Kelce is the other, as a part of a Kansas City Chiefs offense that is hitting its stride.
Otton slides into my low-end TE1 tier for this week and for as long as Evans (collarbone) is sidelined.