For years, Florida has been written off as a lost cause for Democrats.
That conclusion doesn’t hold up to what’s happening on the ground.
Recent special elections show it clearly: Florida isn’t a solid red state. It’s a collection of highly competitive swing districts, where elections are being decided on the margins, and by voters who don’t belong to either party.
In Palm Beach County, Democrat Emily Gregory flipped a district Donald Trump carried by double digits just two years ago. In Tampa, Brian Nathan won in a district where Republicans hold a 22,000-voter registration advantage. Both were first-time candidates. Both ran on issues that directly impact people’s daily lives: housing costs, health care, and the rising price of groceries. And both won.
The simple explanation is that these victories are a referendum on Trump, but that misses a critical point about where political power is actually shifting in Florida. These wins didn’t happen by accident.
Victricia Simmons canvassing neighborhoods.
More than a quarter of Florida voters now identify as No Party Affiliation (NPA), and that share has grown steadily over the past decade. These voters are key constituencies – younger Millennials and Gen Z, more diverse, less ideological.
They are not looking for party loyalty. They are looking for solutions to our hardest daily problems: unaffordable housing, huge utility bills, poor air quality, families forcibly separated, eroded voting rights, and the cost of just simply getting by.
These Democratic victories reflect years of consistent, on-the-ground organizing, the kind of work groups like Florida Rising have been building across the state. Any organization or candidate that spends time building trust in Florida’s communities, district by district, can win in this state. But you have to be out there, block by block, consistently showing up and working with people on solutions to the problems they’re facing.
If you do, voters will ride with you, and even a few points gained with independent voters is enough to tip the election for anyone this year. That’s what just happened in Palm Beach, Tampa, and the I-4 corridor. That’s what happened in Miami when Eileen Higgins was elected mayor after nearly 30 years of Republican dominance. And it’s what will continue to happen as these margins keep shifting.
For nearly two decades, a Republican supermajority in Tallahassee has governed in ways that prioritize corporate interests while making it harder for everyday Floridians to afford to live in their own communities. Voters are responding to that reality – not through ideology, but through lived experience.
Screenshot of Victricia Simmons at Statewide Peoples Assembly.
Florida is not lost, and the question isn’t whether Florida is competitive. The real questions are whether there’s enough investment in Florida to do the long-term, hard work of implementing solutions that address our very real and present problems.
That’s what will make Florida a true swing state.
That’s what will determine whether Democrats continue to write off Florida, or recognize it for what it is: a state where power is still up for grabs.
Victricia Simmons
Victricia Simmons is the executive director of Florida Rising, a statewide organization focused on building political power so everyday Floridians can shape the decisions that impact their lives.
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida is up for grabs, one district at a time | Opinion