Every poll tells a story. The questions a careful reader must ask are: Who’s doing the storytelling, and is the methodology sound?
The new statewide survey released by MDW Communications and EDGE Communications arrives with a compelling headline: Florida is competitive again, Democrats are surging, and Donald Trump is dragging the GOP into the deep end.
These results are a bit surprising, but not completely unexpected, especially after recent Special Election outcomes and national trends. Before Florida’s political insiders accept these findings as fact, it’s worth taking a closer look.
Let’s start where we always start: the sample.
The poll surveyed 1,834 likely Florida voters between March 27 and April 3. That’s a strong sample size, bigger than most public Florida polls, and the eight-day window is reasonable. A larger sample means a smaller margin of error, and with 1,834 people, the margin is about plus or minus 2 points. That seems solid.
The weighting question
The poll was weighted to a turnout model of 44% Republican, 34% Democrat, and 22% no-party or third-party voters.
There will definitely be complaints from both parties. Some will argue the poll favors Democrats too much, while others will say it doesn’t favor them enough. The reality is that in off-year elections, pollsters do their best to guess turnout, but we won’t know for sure until after the election. As Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Still, a +10 GOP model is reasonable, and honestly, you could add 2 more points for the GOP and use a +12 turnout model. With the GOP’s big fundraising advantage going into November, a +12 model seems likely. But even with those extra points, the poll’s main conclusions wouldn’t change.
The age weighting is where you might raise an eyebrow. The poll counts 65-and-older voters as 43% of the electorate. Florida does have an older population, and seniors vote more in off-year elections, but 43% might be a bit high. Research from KFF (formerly Kaiser Family Foundation) put 65-plus turnout at 35% in 2022, and the LeRoy Collins Institute puts it closer to 40%.
Giving extra weight to older voters usually helps Republicans, which means the Democratic numbers in this poll might be a little low. Still, this small difference doesn’t change the overall conclusions.
You can add a grain of salt here if you like, but even then, neither of these nits changes the poll’s bottom line.
The missing methodology clarified
The methodology section, importantly, does not say how the poll was conducted—whether by phone, text-to-web, IVR, or online panel. That’s a significant omission. The way a poll is done matters. A live-caller phone poll using the voter file is much more reliable than an online opt-in panel.
Without knowing how these 1,834 people were contacted, readers can’t really judge how random or representative the sample is. This information should have been shared clearly, but it wasn’t.
We reached out and asked. It turns out the poll used a mix of text-to-web and email-to-web methods. This approach is cheaper, and as long as it’s matched and verified to voter files (which it was), it’s still valid. So maybe be a little cautious, but since this poll lines up with others, there’s not much reason for concern.
Know your pollster
MDW Communications and EDGE Communications are both consulting firms that work with Democrats. Christian Ulvert, who is quoted a lot in the poll memo, is one of Florida’s top Democratic strategists.
This doesn’t automatically mean the numbers are wrong. Partisan pollsters often produce valid surveys. Still, you should keep in mind that this poll was likely done to create news, attract donors, and energize a base that’s had a tough decade in Florida. Even so, the main findings are still credible.
When polling becomes advocacy
The property tax section is where the poll’s advocacy is most obvious. For example, giving voters a choice between eliminating property taxes or keeping funding for police, fire, and parks is classic push-polling. It’s more about influencing opinion than measuring it.
The 21-point shift the poll shows after telling voters about the trade-offs says more about how persuasive a strong message can be than about real public opinion.
That’s helpful for opposition research, but it isn’t neutral public opinion data. Still, it’s worth noting that when a proposed referendum starts out below the needed mark (in this case, 60%), like the property tax measure does, it’s a bad sign for supporters.
The bottom line
We consider the main results solid. The pollster is reputable, the methods are good, and the weighting is reasonable. No skepticism needed there. However, the advocacy questions do deserve some healthy doubt.
Florida’s political scene seems to be changing, as recent Special Election results and other polls show. More voters with no party are moving toward Democrats, which matches other data. Trump’s image is struggling, even in a state he won twice. This is good news for Democrats and a real concern for Republicans.
Final note
Remember, polls can hint at what might happen, but they don’t predict final results. There’s still a long way to go before Election Day, and as we’ve seen before, these numbers can change. Anyone calling for a Democratic landslide in Florida should be met with plenty of skepticism — and more than a few grains of salt.