The Southwest Florida Water Management District said it currently has a 12.8-inch regional rainfall deficit compared to the average 12-month total.
POLK COUNTY, Fla. — The Upper Peace River is expected to go dry within days as the Tampa Bay area continues to grapple with extreme drought conditions.
The Southwest Florida Water Management District made the announcement Thursday, saying the district received below average rainfall during its 2025 summer rainy season and currently has a 12.8-inch regional rainfall deficit compared to the average 12-month total.
Because of this, lake levels are expected to drop and the river may remain dry longer.
As a result, district staff said they will be closing the Lake Hancock P-11 water control structure this week to maintain minimum lake levels. Without this, portions of the Upper Peace River, from Lake Hancock to Fort Meade in Polk County, could go dry and become non-navigable within days.
Fish kills are expected, as closing off the flow of water to the river will lead to fish being trapped in isolated pools in the river channel with low dissolved oxygen levels. Officials say water quality conditions are also expected to worsen in Lake Hancock as the lake level continues to drop from evaporation.
Dry river conditions were common in the Upper Peace River before 2015, prior to the Lake Hancock Lake Level Modification project. Since its completion, the district has been able to store water in the lake and release it to the river during the dry season.
This season, officials say they have to close the water control structure and have no other options, as the current conditions can only be resolved with significant rainfall.
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