Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for CFB Week 10’s game between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks.

TConference USA’s final Wednesday window hits Murfreesboro with clear stakes: Jacksonville State sits 3–0 in league, Middle Tennessee 0–3 and desperate. The Gamecocks travel with a pace-and-punish identity, ripping 276 rushing yards per game as Cam Cook nears 1,000 at 5.9 yards per carry. Derek Mason’s group sits 1–6 and 0–3 at home, yet the last two losses came by five combined points as the defense tightened to 4.85 yards per play in October. Quarterback health shadows the visitors after Caden Creel’s non-throwing arm scare, while Nicholas Vattiato steadies the hosts with back-to-back 30-completion games and 11 touchdowns on the year. Jacksonville State won 42–20 last fall and has taken two straight in the series. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 10’s Wednesday night football game between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and Jacksonville State Gamecocks.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

Jacksonville State’s profile breathes on the ground and refuses detours. The Gamecocks rip 276 rushing yards per game and sit third nationally by volume. They marry gap and option to create angles, then let speed punish pursuit. Running back Cam Cook drives the rhythm at 949 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 5.9 per carry. Creel adds 438 rushing yards at 6.3 per, and Gavin Wimsatt contributes 236 more with four scores. The chain math follows: 41.2% on third down and 73.3% on fourth, where the staff stays aggressive and confident. Inside the 20, they close at 90.9%, which tilts drives toward six instead of three.

The passing sample remains thin. Jacksonville State throws for 140.6 yards per game and ranks 125th in EPA per Pass. That limitation meets a Middle Tennessee defense that yields 234.1 passing yards but fights on leverage. In October, the defense trimmed to 4.85 yards per play and held late downs to 38.5%. The Blue Raiders allow 45.3% of available yards, which bends without ceding explosives in bunches. That matters against a visitor that prefers second-and-five over third-and-long and builds tempo through body blows, not go-balls.

Middle Tennessee lives through the air and embraces pace. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato sits at 1,673 yards, 61.8%, and 11 touchdowns with five interceptions. He pilots spread spacing and rapid decisions, then pairs quick-game rhythm with shallow crossers that turn into YAC. Jekail Middlebrook supplies ground efficiency at 5.8 per carry and 501 yards, plus 26 catches for 218 as a pressure valve. On the perimeter, Nahzae Cox owns 31-390-5 and stresses match leverage with crisp stems. Jacksonville State’s coverage has leaked at 241.6 passing yards allowed, and the yards-per-attempt picture has flashed soft cushions when play-action freezes the second level. If Middle Tennessee stays on schedule, those intermediate seams unlock chunk gains.

Counters sharpen both sides. Jacksonville State can maul fronts and squeeze oxygen from a game, and Middle Tennessee’s rushing offense sits at 85.7 yards per game. The visitors also protect the ball, posting a +2 turnover margin on ten takeaways and eight giveaways. Their drive finish rates amplify that edge; red-zone trips convert at the clip mentioned earlier. Yet the refutation is real. Middle Tennessee’s last three conference losses came by a combined 13 points, and the effort level never dimmed. Sacks remain a scar at 21 allowed, but many came early; protection stabilized as October unfolded. Jacksonville State’s road form still wobbles, and the defense allows 388.3 yards per game, which creates possessions and, likely, points.

The betting frame tightens the lens. Spread markets have toggled between −6 and −6.5, while totals sit at 54.5. Jacksonville State trends toward scoring and has cleared high numbers frequently, but the style profile suggests balanced tempo rather than a runaway clock. Middle Tennessee averages 18.6 points, yet the passing engine produced 28 at Delaware and found structure in the quick game. Add Jacksonville State’s 30.7 points per game and their top-three rushing identity, and scoring paths stretch across all four quarters. Red-zone asymmetry also matters here: a 90.9% conversion rate meets a defense allowing 95.7% in the red area, which converts drives into touchdowns, not field goals.

Jacksonville State vs. MTSU pick, best bet

The counterargument to a points posture leans on clock bleed and stalled drives. Jacksonville State can slow the night with 10- and 12-play marches, and Middle Tennessee’s third-down offense sits at 34% with an average of 7.5 yards needed. If protection buckles, Vattiato’s volume risks waste. The refutation loops back to leverage. Jacksonville State’s pass defense yields efficient completions, and Middle Tennessee’s best path rides early-down throws, not late-down heroics. On the other side, red-zone math and fourth-down aggression add possessions’ worth of expected points without demanding deep shots. Even with a few long drives, touchdown equity remains high.

Jacksonville State will pound the B-gaps, arc bodies to the perimeter, and let Cook slice daylight when linebackers overrun motion. The Gamecocks will stack early first downs and wear on force players. Middle Tennessee will answer with rhythm throws, tempo snaps, and formation variety that isolates Cox on option routes. Vattiato will steal easy yards on first down, then punish soft corners with glance and speed-out families. Middlebrook will flare into space and tug zones out of shape. Flags and field position will matter, but the cadence promises frequent red-zone entries on both sides.

I expect both sidelines to clear the low-to-mid twenties. Jacksonville State will punch five scoring possessions and produce at least three touchdowns on the ground. Middle Tennessee will answer with three touchdown drives and a pair of field goals, built on spacing and quick timers. The night won’t sprint like a track meet, but it will pulse with sustained, repeatable scoring. We’re going over.

Projection: Jacksonville State 34, Middle Tennessee 27. The spread still profiles as a one-score sweat; the total owns broader paths.

Best bet: MTSU vs. Jacksonville State o54.5 total points (-110)

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