We are already almost through two weeks of the hoops season, and most teams have played five games. The action has been fast and furious, with teams channeling their inner Dominic Toretto and pressing the NOS button repeatedly.
If it seems like offense is up in the NBA to start this season, it is. The offensive rating is up about 3 pts per 100 poss.
Usually efficiency goes up during a season, so we’re likely headed for even more offense.https://t.co/GluhgD5jIZ
— Dean Oliver (@DeanO_Lytics) October 28, 2025
While we are analyzing the stats like a Warren Buffett protege and breaking down games as if they were all Zapruder films, let me remind you that the Phoenix Suns were 4-1 to start last season before finishing 36-46, while the Milwaukee Bucks were 1-4 and ended with a 48-34 record.
The injury gods were restless and have already reminded us silly humans of their power, creating potholes in multiple NBA streets. Players have emerged. Others have slithered back into the shadows. The fantasy hoops landscape is constantly morphing — for better or worse, through sickness and health, till death do us part.
In this weekly piece, I will touch on the biggest topics for the following week.
A Rejuvenated Sunshine State
The state of Florida is known as a retirement destination, and its two NBA teams have embodied that vibe, playing at a sloth-like pace. Last season, Orlando was dead last in offensive pace, and Miami was 27th.
Oh, how things have changed. Miami is playing at the fastest pace in the league, while Orlando is ninth. Even on made baskets, Miami quickly inbounds the ball, passing ahead and scoring easy buckets. But playing fast does not guarantee success.
Miami is seventh in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating, resulting in the third-best net rating and a record of 3-1. On the other hand, Orlando is 27th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating, resulting in a 1-4 record. Last season, Orlando had the second-best defensive rating.
Inside the Heat’s up-tempo offense🔥
– No team runs fewer ball screens
– No team runs faster than the Heat
– Only three teams are throwing fewer passes
The Heat are getting up the court and getting up a shot as fast as ever. pic.twitter.com/00QqNaF7bd
— Locked On Heat (@LockedOnHeat) October 28, 2025
Miami has always been known as one of the better-conditioned teams in the league, and Erik Spoelstra prioritized playing faster and generating easier opportunities on offense, so I think Miami continues to play fast, providing a positive fantasy environment for Heat players. For Orlando, I believe they’ll revert to playing slow and prioritizing defense.
This Sheppard is not doing his duty
According to Google AI, a shepherd provides “physical and protective care for sheep, including feeding, watering, guiding to new pastures, and tending to the sick and injured. They also guard the flock against predators and thieves.”
Reed Sheppard provides water by splashing treys and guides teammates to easy buckets with dimes, but guarding against predators? That’s been an issue. He’s been bullied on the ball, while the off-ball defense has been suspect.
I do like Sheppard and think he has tons of potential, but since playing 28 minutes in the opener, Sheppard received an average of 20.3 minutes in his next three games. Josh Okogie has started the past two games because he’s a better defender. Until Sheppard can prove himself on the defensive side of the floor, Ume Udoka likely won’t give him the 30+ minutes of playing time we fantasy nerds clamor for.
The Lawnmower has been unleashed
Josh Minott was selected in the second round of the 2022 draft by the Charlotte Hornets, then traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves. He’s 6-foot-8 and 205 pounds with a 6-foot-11 wingspan. He only played 93 games in Minnesota, averaging five minutes a game.
Minott signed a two-year, $5 million contract with Boston in July. He had a great preseason, averaging 11.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 treys in 24.9 mpg. His energy really stood out to coaches, fans and teammates.
As NBA.com’s Taylor Snow wrote, Minott is nicknamed “The Lawnmower” because, “Once he enters the game and you pull the cord, he starts mowing down opponents with relentless energy. And he doesn’t let up until Joe Mazzulla releases the bail bar and subs him out.”
Entering the season, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown and Payton Pritchard were the only ones Sharpie’d into the lineup. I thought Sam Hauser would get most of the playing time at power forward due to his shooting and size, but Minott has received the start in the past two games, averaging 25.5 minutes, 13 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 2.0 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.5 treys.
I don’t think he’s a flash in the pan.
Injuries schmingeries
LeBron James, Luka Doncic, Gabe Vincent and Marcus Smart have been out for the Lakers. JJ Redick said on Thursday he hopes James returns in the second or third week of November. Doncic is considered day-to-day and could return next week. Over the past three games with James and Doncic out, Austin Reaves has been the alpha and thrived, putting up 51, 41 and 28 points. The usage rate has been over 30% in every contest, with two games over 35%. With all four of James, Doncic, Vincent and Smart out, Jarred Vanderbilt and Jake LaRavia have started. Vanderbilt averaged 27 minutes, 8.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals. LaRavia averaged 33 minutes, 15 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.5 blocks and 2.5 treys.
Brandon Miller injured his shoulder last Saturday after nine minutes of action. He missed two games and is now seeking a second opinion after being diagnosed with a left shoulder subluxation (Ruh roh!). Rookie Kon Knueppel played 30 minutes when Miller went out, then entered the starting lineup and averaged 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 5.0 treys in 31 mpg over two starts.
Trae Young suffered a right knee sprain on Wednesday after a teammate was pushed into his right leg.
Trae Young went to the locker room after an apparent leg injury on this play. pic.twitter.com/OtAeoQegFf
— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) October 30, 2025
Young stood and chatted with head coach Quin Snyder on the sideline after the injury occurred, and on Thursday, it was announced there was no damage to the ACL, but an MRI will be performed later in the day. Keaton Wallace was the substitute for Young on Wednesday, but he only played 14 minutes. Luke Kennard played 28 minutes, and Dyson Daniels played a team-high 35. Daniels and Kennard would likely soak up most of the playmaking responsibilities if Young is out for an extended period, with Wallace providing depth.
Poor Indiana. The Pacers are now down Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard and Obi Toppin. Things are so bad that they signed Mac McClung to a multi-year contract, and he played 13 minutes on Wednesday. Ben Sheppard has been starting, while RayJ Dennis and Quenton Jackson have seen significant playing time off the bench. Jarace Walker started on Wednesday and played 36 minutes, contributing 20 points, six rebounds, five assists, three steals, one block and four treys. He spent all summer working out with Pascal Siakam, and it looks like he’s leveling up.
Best and worst fantasy matchups
Teams that play fast and eschew defense usually provide the best environment for fantasy goodies. Here are the teams that are top-10 in pace but bottom-10 in defensive rating:
Charlotte — Fourth in pace and 21st in defensive rating
Washington — Fifth in pace and 24th in defensive rating
Toronto — Sixth in pace and 29th in defensive rating
Orlando — Ninth in pace and 23rd in defensive rating
Conversely, teams that are deliberate on offense and stifling on defense can neuter fantasy production. Here are the teams that are bottom-10 in pace while being top-10 in defensive rating:
Boston — 29th in pace and ninth in defensive rating
San Antonio — 27th in pace and second in defensive rating
Oklahoma City — 26th in pace and first in defensive rating
New York — 22nd in pace and seventh in defensive rating
Golden State — 21st in pace and 11th in defensive rating (close enough to top-10)
Denver — 20th in pace and fifth in defensive rating
Paradigm shifts?
The sample sizes have been small, but here are some interesting changes from last season that caught my eye:
Danny Ainge said in June that the Jazz would not tank this season. We shall see if his nose gets longer later in the season, but the Jazz look like a legitimate NBA team for now. Utah is fifth in offensive rating and has the 12th-best net rating. The Jazz are 2-2, and Lauri Markkanen is playing at a high level. A no-tank season would be massive for Markkanen.
Mike Brown is instituting his philosophy in New York. The Knicks are second in 3-point attempts after being 27th last season. However, New York is only 23rd in offense after being fifth last season. It will take time, but a New York minute isn’t long.
Chicago is third in defensive rating. Last season, the Bulls were 19th. Shoutout Isaac Okoro!!
San Antonio is 27th in 3-point attempts this season after being seventh last season. Well, Victor Wembanyama attempted 8.8 treys last season and is down to 2.8 this season because, well … he can just do this now:
Victor Wembanyama muscling his way to a dunk 😳
(h/t @BalaPattySZN)pic.twitter.com/euMLhOm5XC
— Fullcourtpass (@Fullcourtpass) October 13, 2025
And this:
on this dunk, Wemby’s vertical was 12.6 inches. that’s the lowest vert on any dunk yet this year.
this dude only needed to jump one (1!!!) foot in the air to jam from outside the restricted area. unreal. https://t.co/whTpGdFEXt pic.twitter.com/lmJNliHJ8N
— tim cato (@tim_cato) October 27, 2025