TAMPA, Fla. – Housing affordability is expected to be one of the biggest topics of discussion as community leaders, real estate professionals and industry experts gather for the fifth annual State of the Market event today in Tampa.
The event, taking place at The Cuban Club in Ybor City, will focus on the current state of the Tampa Bay housing market and what lies ahead for buyers, sellers and local communities.
According to real estate strategist Craig Kincheloe, understanding the health of the housing market has become increasingly difficult because different segments of the market are moving in different directions.
“You have new construction homes, resale homes, condos and properties in flood-prone areas,” Kincheloe said. “Each category is experiencing its own trends and challenges.”
Kincheloe said some neighborhoods have seen home values increase by as much as 13% to 14% over the past year, while others have experienced declines of 13% to 15%.
Despite those varying trends, affordability remains the market’s most significant challenge.
Kincheloe noted that in 2019, a household earning about $75,000 annually could afford an average-priced home in the Tampa area. By 2024, that same home required an income of roughly $130,000.
“The biggest challenge is closing the gap between what people earn and what it costs to buy and finance a home,” Kincheloe said.
“If we look at the average salary right now in Tampa, it is not near $130,000,” he added. “So until we address affordability, whether that’s a decrease in prices or that’s a decrease in interest rates, one of those two factors we need to have.”
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor is expected to deliver opening remarks at the event and highlight the city’s efforts to expand housing opportunities since 2019.
City officials say Tampa has added approximately 23,000 new homes to the market during that time. More than 8,300 of those units are designated as affordable housing and are either completed or currently under development.
While the broader market remains favorable to sellers, experts say some opportunities are emerging for buyers.
Condominium prices have declined significantly in some areas, and homes located in flood zones, particularly those impacted by flooding in 2024, also have seen notable price reductions.
With demand for those properties remaining relatively low, buyers willing to consider those segments of the market may find more negotiating power and lower prices than elsewhere in the Tampa Bay area.