It is a loaded day of MLB action with all 30 teams taking the field across the Saturday slate. With first pitch scheduled at 4:10 p.m. ET, the San Diego Padres will take on the Miami Marlins. These two teams opened the series yesterday, which resulted in a 4-2 victory by the Padres.

Looking at the odds for tonight, the Marlins enter as -142 favorites on the moneyline and hold +149 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Padres hold +118 odds of winning outright, with the run total set at eight.

Padres at Marlins prediction, preview

The San Diego Padres hold a 51-53 record on the season, which slots them in third place in the National League West. They will look to build off the 4-2 victory over the Marlins yesterday, but they are just 3-5 since returning from the All-Star break. On the season overall, the Padres have gone 57-47 to the run line, and the game total is 47-56-1 to the over/under.

Randy Vasquez will be getting the start for San Diego tonight. The 27-year-old has made 19 appearances and 16 starts this season. Vasquez enters with a 6-6 record, a 4.72 ERA, a 1.517 WHIP, 106 hits allowed, 14 home runs conceded and 63 strikeouts tallied across 87.2 innings pitched. He has not pitched more than 3.1 innings in his past five appearances. Vasquez has only faced this Marlins lineup in 18 at-bats in his career, and he is allowing slash lines of .389/.421/.556 with a .977 OPS.

Looking at the Padres’ production at the plate, the team is slashing a collective .229/.307/.382 with a .689 OPS. Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the team with 114 hits, including 20 doubles, and he has improved his RBI production to 47. Jackson Merrill adds 87 hits and a team-worst 105 strikeouts along with 14 home runs and 45 RBIs. Manny Machado offers a team-high 22 home runs along with 60 RBIs, while Ty France and Gavin Sheets combine for 30 home runs, and Xander Bogaerts also plays a key role. San Diego ranks last in the MLB in hits, 15th in strikeouts, 19th in home runs and 24th in total runs on the season.

The Miami Marlins enter with a 52-52 record on the season, sitting 9.5 games back of the top spot in the NL East. But Miami has not won a game since before the All-Star break, and it is looking to snap a 10-game losing streak overall. On the season, the Marlins have gone 52-52 to the run line and the game total is 50-48-6 to the over/under.

Eury Perez will be making his 18th start of the season for the Marlins. The 23-year-old enters with a 5-7 record, a 3.53 ERA and a 1.113 WHIP with 65 hits allowed, 13 strikeouts conceded and 104 strikeouts tallied across his 91.2 innings pitched. Perez has turned a corner a bit as of late, entering this matchup with one or fewer earned runs allowed in six of his past seven games. He has faced off with this Padres lineup in just 25 at-bats in his career, limiting them to just four total hits.

Miami is slashing a collective .251/.326/.407 with a .733 OPS this season. Otto Lopez leads the entire MLB with 132 hits, along with a league-best .330 batting average, 27 doubles and 46 RBIs. Xavier Edwards offers 111 hits of his own with 37 RBIs and a .292 batting average. Liam Hicks and Heriberto Hernandez are tied for a team-high 14 home runs, with Hicks offering 60 RBIs. Kyle Stowers, Owen Caissie and Joe Mack offer 10+ home runs of their own. As a team, the Marlins rank 10th in hits, 19th in strikeouts, 23rd in home runs and 16th in total runs.

Padres at Marlins pick, best bet

It may not feel like the best outlook to back a team on a 10-game losing streak, but the Marlins are not going to go winless forever. Miami has played some encouraging baseball for the bulk of the season, but hit a wall of late. Not only has it lost 10 consecutive games, but it has only covered the run line in one of these matchups.

However, Miami should be licking its chops at this pitching matchup with Randy Vasquez taking the ball. The 4.72 ERA and 14 home runs are concerning enough on the surface level, but the Marlins have had success against him in the past, slashing .389/.421/.556 with a .977 OPS. Vasquez has also not been in strong form of late, failing to pitch deeper than 3.1 innings in each of his past five starts and still allowing four or more earned runs in three of these matchups. San Diego has a respectable bullpen with a collective 3.78 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. But it also should be noted it took six pitchers for the Padres to get through nine innings yesterday and five pitchers the game before this. Expect the bullpen to be a bit more shorthanded than is ideal for the situation. 

In contrast, Eury Perez has found his stride of late for this Marlins team. He has allowed just five earned runs across his past seven games and 39.1 innings pitched. Perez has had success with this matchup in the past and pitched six or more innings in three straight games.

The bats still need to come alive for the Marlins to get the victory, but expect Perez to put the team in the driver’s seat to get the win. Miami has put forth impressive levels of offense for the bulk of the season and look for it to find its stride once again. This is a favorable matchup against Vasquez, and expect this pitching matchup to be the difference in tonight’s game.

Best bet: Marlins Moneyline (-148)

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