Charlotte County’s consultant Metro Forecasting Models presented an updated population and development model to the County Commission at its Tuesday meeting. The county has worked with the consultant for three years to provide insight into our present and future growth to enable it to better plan and budget for the community’s needs.
The model breaks the county into six clusters developed using natural and manmade features, such as water bodies, roads and political boundaries. The clusters are Mid-County, West County, East County, Punta Gorda, Burnt Store Road and Babcock Ranch. It further studies 353 distinct zones to ensure the overall accuracy of its projections.
MFM consultant David Farmer told the board his latest forecast is based on data such as certificates of occupancy and predictive analytics. Farmer reported the county has added more than 26,000 new housing units since 2020, including 7,545 units since January 2025. He warned rapid growth could impact the county’s level of public services and that commercial development has lagged behind population growth. That lag contributes to road congestion as residents travel farther from their homes to procure goods and services.
Farmer said the county’s current population is estimated at 237,982. That compares to the U.S. Census Bureau’s July 2025 estimate of 217,212 and the 2020 Census count of 186,823. That’s an increase of 51,159 residents. He projected a population of 263,451, an additional 25,469, by 2030. He tallied the number of housing units in 2026 at 135,829 and forecasted that figure to increase to 148,829 by 2030 and 161,415 in 2035.
The analysis shows between 2026 and 2030 approximately 21% of new residents will live in the West Port area (Mid-County cluster), 42% will live in Babcock Ranch, and 14% will live in the Rotonda area (West cluster). The Burnt Store Road corridor will be home to 9% of new residents by 2030.
The new residents will require additional services, both public and private, including fire and law enforcement stations, parks, recreation centers and shopping centers. The county’s proposed extension of the 1% local option sales tax would fund four new fire stations and two replacements, an Englewood Area Fire Prevention District station renovation, a new district office, a new aircraft hangar, a warehouse and a jail renovation for the sheriff. It would also fund additional phases and renovations of existing parks and recreation centers, a new park in Murdock, the construction of a new cultural center and library in Port Charlotte and a new library and county annex in Babcock Ranch.
If enough revenue is generated, Tier 2 projects include a Burnt Store area regional park, an Englewood community park, a West County Library and the replacement of the Tringali Recreation Center.
Farmer expressed his concern the proposed property tax referendum “has the potential to influence the county’s long-term fiscal capacity and its ability to provide essential public services.” He said economic development is “essential” for maintaining the county’s fiscal stability. That development should be a mixture of commercial, industrial, institutional, and tourism-related land uses. He suggested allowing high density residential development near commercial and industrial centers to reduce vehicle trip length.
The board, county administration and department leaders value the data and analysis provided by MFM and have and will continue to factor that information into planning and budgeting to provide the facilities and services members of the community have come to expect.
To view the forecast video, visit www.CharlotteCountyFL.gov/cctv, click on Video On-Demand Archives and select the July 28, 2026 meeting video.