Former National Security Council member Alex Vindman (left) is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody (right) in Florida’s 2026 special election for U.S. Senate (images via Vindman’s campaign ad, Moody’s Senate bio).
Democrats are seriously contesting four GOP-held Senate seats in states that President Donald Trump carried by 11 to 14 percentage points in 2024. Polls suggest that Democratic candidates have a real shot at winning in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
But Florida, which Trump won by a similar 13-point margin, looks more likely to remain in Republican hands. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, appointed GOP Sen. Ashley Moody leads Alex Vindman, her likely Democratic opponent, 47%-40%.
Florida was once a quintessential swing state, but it has taken on a pronounced red lean since 2020. Vindman, a former member of the National Security Council who gained prominence after testifying in Trump’s 2019 impeachment trial, is seeking to change that by mounting a well-funded challenge against Moody. As of June 30, Vindman had raised $14.5 million, more than the $10.8 million collected by Moody. But whereas Democratic candidates in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas are running slightly ahead or about even against their GOP counterparts, Vindman trails by nearly 8 points.
A recent story in Politico observed that Republican insiders have concerns that Moody is running too quiet a campaign, even as she leads the party’s ticket this fall. Moody was appointed to the Senate to take the place of now-Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and appointed senators have sometimes struggled. In Ohio, for instance, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted (who took over for Vice President JD Vance) narrowly trails in the polls against former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
But Moody has demonstrated serious electoral chops, even if she hasn’t had to run for Senate before. Previously Florida’s attorney general, she led the Republican ticket in both her initial run in 2018 and her reelection bid in 2022. In the latter, she was the only statewide GOP candidate to break the 60% mark.
Moody’s ability to hold this seat will be critical for Republicans to limit the potential paths Democrats could travel to a majority. Our forecast gives the GOP about a 4 in 5 shot of winning here. But a flip would give Democrats an 84% chance of capturing the Senate. Both Moody and Vindman still have to get through their primaries on Aug. 18, though only Vindman has meaningful opposition in the form of state Rep. Angie Nixon.
Overall probabilities of control and average seat counts:
Change in forecasted control probabilities over time:
President Donald Trump’s standing remains roughly in the same vicinity as it has been more months now. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, his job approval rating is at 40% while his disapproval stands at 57%.
Democrats have led in Decision Desk HQ’s generic ballot average since last year, but that advantage had ebbed somewhat in the past few weeks. However, recent polls have found stronger numbers for Democrats, and they now lead on this measure by about 7 points, 47%-40%. This shift comes in the wake of renewed clashes with Iran and a spike in gas prices. Not coincidentally, Democrats last held a lead this large in May, when gas prices last peaked.
Americans continue to hold strongly negative views about the direction of the country. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, 62% say the nation is on the wrong track, while only about 31% say it’s on the right track. The right track mark just about matches the low point for Trump’s second term.
Minnesota Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, leaving open a seat in the light-blue state. On Aug. 11, Democratic primary voters will choose between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a progressive, and Rep. Angie Craig, a center-left congresswoman. In Decision Desk HQ’s average of the race, Flanagan holds a 42%-38% lead.
In our forecast, Democrats are sizable favorites to hold onto Minnesota’s seat, with close to a 9 in 10 shot of winning. All in all, if Minnesota ends up being very close, it likely means the GOP is on its way to keeping its majority in November.
Republican Rep. Byron Donalds has President Trump’s endorsement and is favored to win the GOP nomination for governor in Florida. However, he still has to win the Aug. 18 Republican primary. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Donalds leads the GOP field with 43%, well ahead of his three main opponents. That trio includes Lt. Gov. Jay Collins (14%), conservative activist and businessman James Fishback (9%), and former state House Speaker Paul Renner (8%).
The likeliest general election matchup in Florida’s gubernatorial contest pairs Donalds against former Rep. David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat. But the polling for this probable matchup remains closer than the numbers in the Sunshine State’s Senate race. In Decision Desk HQ’s polling average of the potential Donalds-Jolly matchup, Donalds leads by 4 points, 43%-39%.
As a part of the Senate picture, Democrats must win in North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. And early general election polling is favorable for Democrats. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic nominee, leads former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley about 51%-43%.
In our forecast, North Carolina is clearly the Democrats’ best pick-up opportunity. Right now, Cooper has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning. That is no sure thing, but it does make it the friendliest-looking Republican-held seat for Democrats.
In Ohio’s special election for Senate, appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted faces former Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Democratic nominee. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Brown holds a slim edge, 47%-46%. Brown’s record of running at least somewhat ahead of the Democratic baseline in red-leaning Ohio may give him a real chance of flipping this seat.
Either way, this is also a pivotal seat for the Senate arithmetic. Husted currently has just below a 3 in 5 shot of winning in November, making this a toss-up race in our forecast. But Ohio is the least red (Trump +11) of the red-leaning seats that Democrats have to compete in for a chance at a majority.
In Ohio’s race for governor, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, faces Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Decision Desk HQ’s average, Acton holds a slight edge, 48%-46%, in what looks to be shaping up to be a very close contest.
In Texas, Democrats are hoping to win the U.S. Senate contest, which would be their first statewide victory there since 1994. In Decision Desk HQ’s average of the Texas race, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico narrowly leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 48%-45%.
While Talarico holds a small edge, Texas’s red lean helps make this a toss-up race in Decision Desk HQ’s forecast. But Talarico gives Democrats a real shot at flipping this seat, which they may need if they want to capture the Senate majority.
To see all Decision Desk HQ polling averages, click here.
To see Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast, click here.
Our team carefully reviews and averages these polls using a straightforward methodology, ensuring that our polling averages reflect a balanced and up-to-date snapshot of public opinion. Within each average you can find a specific point in time to compare how things have changed or view any poll included within that average.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s polling average methodology here.
Read about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 forecast methodology here.
Enjoyed this post? Please share it!