Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics prediction, pick for Monday 8/10/26

Last season, only two teams didn’t play in their regular home stadiums: the Tampa Bay Rays and the Athletics. Neither made the playoffs. Now, the Athletics are still at their temporary home, and the Rays are back at Tropicana Field; the Athletics will miss the playoffs again, and Tampa Bay will likely finish with the AL’s best record.

Coincidence? Probably; their stadiums certainly aren’t the only reason for their differing fortunes.

This week, the Rays will travel to West Sacramento, Calif., for a three-game set against the Athletics, who are fighting to stay ahead of the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies for the worst record in baseball.

The series opener is set to begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. Freddy Peralta will make his second start for Tampa Bay, and Jacob Lopez will crest the hill for the Athletics.

Let’s break down this cross-country matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics Best Bets

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-103): The Rays have won nine of their last 18 games by multiple runs, and the Athletics have 18 multi-run losses since the start of July.

Chandler Simpson 2+ Hits + Stolen Bases (+102): Simpson will never hit for much power, but that hardly matters since he’s gotten a hit in 41% of his at-bats since the All-Star break. To be fair, Lopez actually has a top-quintile expected batting average, but he hasn’t gotten any favors from his defense.

Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics prediction, preview

The fact that the Rays have been among baseball’s best teams this season shouldn’t come as a surprise, given that they made the playoffs in each season between 2019 and 2023 and won the AL pennant in 2020, but after a down season in 2025, they’ve nearly matched their win total from last season already. Tampa Bay hasn’t trailed in the division since the end of June and now has a 74.5% to win the AL East. The Rays’ offense has been barely above-average since the Midsummer Classic, since Jonathan Aranda has slumped and they’ve continued to get nothing from the middle of their infield, but catcher Liam Hicks was a huge trade deadline acquisition and Junior Caminero continues to rake. Additionally, Tampa Bay has had among the league’s best pitching staffs, including the fifth-best ERA since the trade deadline, and while it failed to acquire Tarik Skubal, Peralta and Tyler Wells should both help in the long run. Between Wells, Bryan Baker, and Kevin Kelly, the Rays’ bullpen will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs.

The Athletics’ season fell off a cliff as the Central Valley weather heated up. Since the start of July, the Athletics have gone just 7-25, falling from effectively a 50-50 chance at making the playoffs on June 18 to effective elimination today. They’ve had a below-average offense since the All-Star break, as Shea Langeliers’ season-ending injury and Nick Kurtz’s potentially long-term ailment have left Tyler Soderstrom as the lone above-average hitter in the regular lineup. League-average hitting won’t cut it for the Athletics at Sutter Health Park, given that it’ll never be a pitching destination. Indeed, the Athletics have had the league’s worst staff since the All-Star break, and no team has had a worse bullpen for the season as a whole. Aaron Civale was traded and Luis Severino injured, and their best reliever, Hogan Harris, has a 3.63 ERA. In fact, no pitcher on the roster has more than three innings pitched and a sub-3 ERA, unique even compared to the similarly-awful Rockies.

Peralta’s first start for Tampa Bay hardly could’ve gone more disastrously, as he gave up nine hits and seven earned runs in just 3.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies. It’s been that kind of season overall; he had just a 4.99 ERA in 22 starts with the New York Mets before being traded. Still, this season is an outlier for his career, as he recorded a 3.59 mark across eight seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers, and advanced numbers suggest that he’s due for a bounce-back. He ranks in at least the 38th percentile in every single Statcast category, including a 54th-percentile expected ERA, and the Athletics’ high grounder and strikeout rates should help mitigate some of his biggest weaknesses. Additionally, Peralta has a 70th-percentile average exit velocity and an 81st-percentile barrel rate, which should further quiet a team who don’t have a ton of power to begin with and now are without Langeliers and Kurtz, the suppliers of most of that power. Peralta has had horrible road numbers this season and an ERA more than a full run higher away from home for his career, and the Athletics have baseball’s second-best home offense, but he faced basically this same lineup in Milwaukee last season and held them scoreless over five innings.

Lopez has shown even fewer reasons to inspire faith, as he has a 5.64 ERA in 18 outings (15 starts) and doesn’t have the track record that Peralta does, but to be fair, a 2.29 mark over his last four starts (19.2 innings) is pretty solid. He has a much more colorful advanced profile than Peralta, with a 70th-percentile expected ERA and an 81st-percentile expected batting average but more glaring weaknesses. In particular, Lopez has a bottom-decile chase and walk rate, which could be a problem against the extremely patient Rays. Furthermore, he has below-average whiff and strikeout rates, and Tampa Bay is by far baseball’s best contact team. However, he also has noteworthy strengths, ranking in the top octile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, exacerbating the Rays’ power issues (they rank in the bottom four in all of those stats), and although he gives up too many fly balls, Tampa Bay likes to hit it low. His form at Sutter Health Park (6.61 ERA) isn’t ideal, but the Rays have been far less dangerous away from home. His defense won’t do him any favors, as the Athletics rank third-to-last in Fielding Runs Above Average, but he might be able to limit the damage more than otherwise might be expected.

Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins pick, best bet

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-103)

I’m a bit hesitant to touch the game total; Statcast numbers suggest that both Peralta and Lopez have been good enough to keep the total under and basic numbers imply that each has been bad enough to send the total over. Instead, the safest bet on the board is for Tampa Bay to dominate on the margins, especially once Peralta’s out of the game.

Strong Lean: Chandler Simpson 2+ Hits + Stolen Bases (+102)

Simpson has been quite sharp since the All-Star break, batting .410 and stealing nine bases without getting caught. While he’s been a fair bit worse against lefties, the soft-tossing Lopez has been one of the worst in the running game this season, and new backstop Jonah Heim ranks in only the 14th percentile in fielding run value.

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