After reeling off nine straight wins, the Rays (74-47) finally fell short last night. It was the Orioles (59-63) that pulled away late en route to a narrow 6-5 victory. Baltimore, despite its sub-.500 record, is just one game out of the American League’s final wild card spot. On the other side, Tampa Bay is looking to clinch the Junior Circuit’s best record with less than two months before the playoffs. Which of these divisional rivals will come out on top tonight?
The Rays are favorites (-141) over the Orioles; the over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday’s showdown between Baltimore and Tampa Bay on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Rays pick, best bet today
Orioles ML (+131): This is a value play, leaning towards the side with the superior starting pitcher on the mound in Bradish. At +131 odds, the Orioles are worth a wager tonight against a middling arm in Seymour.
Orioles vs. Rays prediction, preview
It’ll be Kyle Bradish making his 24th start of the season for Baltimore. During 127.0 innings of work, he’s delivered a 3.69 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 121 strikeouts (8.6 K/9). What prevents the fifth-year pro from reaching ace status is mediocre command; his career-high 3.8 BB/9 ratio signals erratic control. What Bradish does quite well is limiting the long ball (0.9 HR/9). The right-hander has done well in this spot, allowing three earned runs over his previous three meetings with Tampa Bay (1.56 ERA). To boot, Baltimore’s top arm has allowed one earned run or less in three of his last five outings.
Navigating Tampa Bay’s lineup won’t be easy. This group is 12th in runs scored (554), first in batting average (.260) and sixth in OPS (.738). As previously mentioned, the AL East leaders come into Saturday having won nine of their last ten contests. During that stretch, they paced all of baseball with 70 runs scored. However, it’s important not to read too much into those results. After all, trips to Colorado and Sacramento will inflate the statistics of almost any club. The trio of Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda has wreaked havoc on opposing pitchers all season. Ditto for new acquisition Liam Hicks, sporting a 1.080 OPS over his first nine games with the Rays. Still, this could be a difficult matchup for the home team. Bradish sits within the 78th percentile among qualified starters with a 48.7% ground ball rate. At the plate, Tampa Bay hitters own the fourth-highest ground ball rate (45.2%).
As for the Rays, Ian Seymour will get the nod this evening. It’s been a decent, albeit unspectacular, 2026 for the southpaw. He enters today’s contest with a 4.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through 90.1 innings. He’s one of Tampa Bay’s better swing and miss guys, sitting inside the 77th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout rate. However, Seymour is below the 15th percentile in barrel and ground ball rate. Unsurprisingly, that’s led to quite a few baseballs leaving the park (1.3 HR/9).
If there’s one thing the Orioles know how to do, it’s mash. This squad is sixth in barrel rate (8.7%) and first in hard-hit rate (42.8%). In addition, they have the eighth-best OPS on the road against left-handed pitching (.733). Another underrated component of this lineup is its ability to work a count. Baltimore is averaging an American League-best 3.86 walks per game. The O’s have scored at least five runs in each of their last five games. Keeping that in mind, it looks like this offense is starting to heat up.
A bit of a risk here tonight, but the occasional value play can reap major rewards. Bradish is the superior arm on Saturday, and he’s shown a knack for silencing Tampa Bay’s bats. That’s not to say Seymour is a scrub, but Saturday’s game could prove difficult. The Orioles hit the ball hard and usually do well against lefties. Add it all up, and Baltimore makes plenty of sense at +131.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.