Entering Week 10 the New England Patriots are playing as well as they have in years. Their strong start has them on a six-game winning streak and tied for the best record in the NFL at 7-2.
Awaiting them this week? A true measuring stick. They’ll head to the city of Tampa to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are a contender in their own right, sitting at 6-2 on the season and in first place in the NFC South.
The Patriots come into this matchup after what, for what they’ve been this year, was a down performance. They turned the ball over twice and struggled in the red zone on both sides of the ball but managed to eke out a 24-23 win against the Falcons.
Now they face a team with explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball. It’s a tough matchup, but as head coach Mike Vrabel put it last week “we’re going to learn from winning so that we don’t have to learn from losing.”
What do the Patriots need to do to go punch-for-punch with one of the best teams in the league? What do they need to fix from last week? Let’s get into it in this week’s ‘5 Things’…
Bucs come in rested
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While the Patriots continue to grind through their schedule (they haven’t even had their mini-bye week yet), they’ll get a Buccaneers team that is both talented and rested. Tampa had its bye week last week.
In recent weeks Vrabel has talked about how the Patriots will need to make sure they manage some of their veteran players down the stretch of the season. This will be a good test of the Patriots’ conditioning.
Tampa did need the week off, too. The Bucs are banged up, especially on offense. The Bucs will likely be without running back Bucky Irving and wide receiver Chris Godwin, who missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday. That’s a big blow for an offense already down Mike Evans, who is on IR after breaking his collarbone last month. Up front, interior offensive linemen Ben Bredson and Luke Haggard practiced but appeared on the injury report this week, while tackle Luke Goedeke is on there as an IR-designated to return player.
But besides rest, how much will the extra week off help Tampa? In the past, extra weeks haven’t been super helpful to Todd Bowles-coached teams. Bowles is 2-5 all-time in the week after a bye, although the Buccaneers did pick up a 30-7 win over the New York Giants last year, kicking off a stretch where they won four in a row and six of their final seven after a Week 11 bye.
Offense needs a ‘bounce back’ day
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For the first time in a few weeks, the Patriots’ offense needs to ‘bounce back.’ Last week the unit looked out of sync relative to recent games, highlighted by their turnovers and the fact they scored just three points in the second half of the game.
At the center of that is quarterback Drake Maye. Maye looked to be in a complete and total rhythm heading into the Atlanta game, but threw and interception, fumbled twice, and had more incompletions (10) than he did in the previous two games combined (8).
Unlike the past month and a half where Maye bounced back from (rare) mistakes well and showed a short memory, he looked more phased after his turnovers in that game, similar to the way he played in the season opener. He’ll need to move past that this week.
As Maye does look to get back on the right track there’s a chance he’ll be without one of his most trusted receivers. Kayshon Boutte missed the first two days of practice this week with a hamstring injury. Typically when players miss practice Wednesday and Thursday they don’t go on to play.
If Boutte can’t go, there should finally be a chance for rookie Kyle Williams to get regular playing time. Prior to filling in for Boutte last week Williams had played just 17.8% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps, with a good chunk of those snaps coming in garbage time in blowouts. Now, he likely factors in as the team’s top ‘X’ receiver.
The big thing for Williams will be getting on the same page with Maye. Even going back to training camp he didn’t get a ton of time on the field with the starting offense, but should have more of a chance to build chemistry with Maye this week in practice with Boutte out.
It’s also a bounce-back spot for the offensive line and the pass protection as a whole. Tampa is one of the most blitz-heavy teams in the league (30.8% per Pro Football Reference), and are effective when they do blitz. There will be a lot for that unit to pick up, after Maye was hit 14 times over the last two weeks.
Stopping Vita Vea
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One player that offensive line will need to key in on is Vita Vea. In his age-30 season the 6-foot-4, 347-pound nose tackle is still making plays against the run and the pass. So far this year he’s been credited with 22 pressures and 10 run stops in eight games.
Vea will be a challenge for the Patriots’ interior offensive line, which has struggled in recent games. Teams have attacked both Jared Wilson and Mike Onwenu with line games in recent weeks leading to free rushers at Maye. Center Garrett Bradbury will be a focal point in the Patriots limiting Vea’s impact as well.
“His size of strength obviously pops out,” Bradbury said to 98.5 The Sports Hub this week. “I think he’s a lot quicker than people think. I think their defense has a good job of getting him [in] different positions to succeed. He’s been a great player in this league for a long time, and it’s not by coincidence. He’s smart. He’s seen a lot of blocks. He’s seen a lot of plays. So it’ll be a good challenge for us.”
Part of what makes Vea such a challenge to face is his rare athletic profile. “Extremely rare,” Bradbury said of his ability to move at his size. “There’s not many of those guys walking around.”
Whether it’s in pass protection or trying to open space on the ground, Vea will need to be a key part of the Patriots’ blocking schemes. Of course there’s also always the option in the run game to run away from him. The trick might be running away from him but still attacking other parts of Tampa’s interior. The Buccaneers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry on runs inside the tackles this year (bottom 10 in the league), while they’ve been the second-best team defending runs to the outside at 3.3 yards per carry. That could also make some of the recent outside runs the team has been using more recently for TreVeyon Henderson more challenging.
Getting to know the Tampa wide receivers
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Going back to the Tom Brady era, Tampa has been known to have one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. However Godwin still hasn’t returned to practice Evans is on IR with a broken collarbone. So, who is left?
Right now, the passing game runs through rookie first-round pick Emeka Egbuka. The latest Ohio State standout wide receiver, Egbuka has emerged as a consistent deep threat for quarterback Baker Mayfield. In total Egbuka has caught 34 passes for 562 yards and five touchdowns in eight games. His 16.5 yards per reception rank fifth in the NFL among qualified wide receivers, while his average depth of target of 13.9 yards is tied for the second deepest.
The extra challenge for the Patriots will be preparing for how Tampa is going to use Egbuka. Early in the season he lined up a good amount of the time in the slot, pushing 50% in some games. In the first game without Evans two weeks ago, he was in the slot 38.5% of the time, just about in line with his season average.
If he does line up in the slot, will the Patriots have Christian Gonzalez shadow him inside given the lack of a premier threat elsewhere? Or will Marcus Jones draw the assignment whenever Egbuka is in the slot.
However, the Patriots may also want to use Jones as a matchup player on rookie Tez Johnson. The seventh-round pick has stepped into a bigger role with Tampa’s other wide receiver injuries. A true burner, he’s been used in a similar way to how the Patriots have used Pop Douglas in recent weeks, downfield and making tacklers miss after the catch.
Then there’s the veteran of the group, 32-year-old Sterling Shepard. He’s been more of the chain mover for Tampa, splitting his time outside and in the slot. His 36 targets this year are the second-most by a wide receiver on the Bucs, and he’s caught 75% of them. He’s a likely matchup for Carlton Davis.
Outside of the wide receiver position, tight end Cade Otton has seen his role grow in recent weeks. While Kyle Pitts had a quieter game last week, that may have just been due to the volume with which the Falcons targeted Drake London. The Patriots’ issues covering tight ends still loom large heading into this game.
Due for a big return?
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After getting a kickoff and punt return touchdown early in the season, the Patriots’ return units haven’t been as dominant in recent weeks. They haven’t been bad, but it’s been a couple of games since their last explosive return in either phase.
This week’s matchup could be a chance to change that, in particular in the punt game. Tampa’s punt coverage unit is allowing 14.7 yards per return, which is the fourth-most in the league and the most by any team that has not yet allowed a punt return touchdown. There could be chances for Marcus Jones, an All-Pro returner, to break a big one.
Tampa’s kickoff unit is better, but still ranked bottom-10 in the league allowing 26.6 yards per return. Last week the Patriots went back to Chism as their kick returner and he had his best performance in that role in three games, averaging 26.3 yards per return on three returns. Can he take another step forward this week?
On the other side, Tampa’s punt return unit can be dangerous. Kameron Johnson ranks fifth in the NFL averaging 13.8 yards per return on 15 returns, with three returns of 20-plus yards on the season.
“He’s got juice man. He catches it – he’s not scared of the catch-and-go,” special teams coordinator Jeremy Springer said this week when asked about Johnson. “He’s electric, he’s looking to score every time he touches the ball. The guy’s got really good contact balance for his size, breaks tackles, runs off arm tackles. The guy’s just fearless. Guys like that, they scare you because they’re trying to make a play, and it doesn’t matter if it’s the first quarter or the fourth quarter. You’ve always got to be on high alert to cover well and play with our details in that aspect.”
The Buccaneers’ kick return unit hasn’t been as effective. That group ranks 26th in the league averaging 24.3 yards per return.