Former Gov. Charlie Crist is now one election away from gaining a new title, after a resounding top finish in Tuesday’s Primary for St. Petersburg Mayor, in which he delivered a major blow to incumbent Mayor Ken Welch.

Crist won the day by more than 14 percentage points, with more than 35% of the vote to Welch’s less than 21%.

The race isn’t over — the two will head to a runoff in the Nov. 3 General Election — but it might as well be. For an incumbent to lose by such a wide margin, it’s hard to imagine a path to victory after that.

But there’s one number that sticks out even more than a vote margin, and that’s where we’ll begin this edition of “Five things I think I think …”

Nearly 80%

That’s how many St. Petersburg voters rejected Ken Welch this Primary. He may have snuck into second place by edging out two other credible challengers — City Council Member Brandi Gabbard and former Fire Chief Jim Large, who each claimed nearly 18% of the vote — but only about a fifth of those who voted thought giving Welch another four years was a good idea.

That means nearly 80% of the voting public thinks giving him another four years is a bad idea.

Campaigning is hard work. And winning campaigns always run as if they are behind, even when they’re clearly not. But if we’re being honest, that 80% number probably makes Welch easier to defeat in November than any other candidate that ran.

Why? Because it’s a hell of a lot harder to convince voters who think you’ve done a bad job that you’ll do better, and it’s really easy for a challenger to remind voters the incumbent did a bad job.

Welch said during the Primary campaign that he was running on his record. Well, so did Crist. And Gabbard. And Large. And Kevin Batdorf. And Maria Scruggs. They all ran on Welch’s record, subjecting the incumbent to an onslaught of criticism ranging from his hurricane response to his work attendance.

There will inevitably be people who voted for a candidate not named Crist or Welch who just can’t swallow a vote for Crist. Some of them might come back to Welch. Or maybe they just sit out the General Election. But it’s more likely the majority of Gabbard, Large, Batdorf and Scruggs voters hop on the Crist train. And even if some don’t, it likely won’t be enough for Welch to bridge that 14-plus point gap.

Simply put, if this were the U.K., that 80% number would be a vote of no confidence. Either way, Welch is probably out of a job come January. He’d better start polishing his résumé.

The poll no one knew about

Before Crist ever jumped into the Mayor’s race, he did what any credible candidate worth their weight in salt does: He polled it.

The results weren’t exactly brimming with optimism. The poll actually showed Crist a full 5 percentage points behind Welch. Given Crist’s vote margin in the Primary, it’s now clear Crist enjoyed a nearly 20-point swing from pre-launch to Primary.

But the poll also showed something election results would eventually bear out: that no other candidate even came close. It’s no wonder Crist decided to shoot his shot.

Speaking of polling

Our most recent poll, from St. Pete Polls, was spot on. Taken in late July, the poll showed Crist at 34% and Welch at 19%, only a little more than a percentage point off on each candidate, and well within the poll’s margin of error.

It also predicted something else that happened on Election Night. Among those who already voted at the time, the poll found Crist at 51%, 16 points higher than where Crist ultimately landed.

But anyone who knows anything about voting trends knew that number would go down once early voting started, and then possibly again as Election Day ballots were cast. As my team watched results roll in Tuesday night, that’s exactly what we saw. Crist had an even larger lead when the first tallies dropped, which comprise vote-by-mail ballots. As the night went on and in-person ballots began reflecting in totals, Crist’s margin of victory shrunk.

Polls don’t always get it right, but this one (mostly) accurately predicted not just the outcome, but how people would vote.

A rare admission

I was wrong. There, I said it. Wrong. Period.

I genuinely believed Gabbard would be the one in the runoff, and that Welch would have gone home from his party early to start charting his next career move.

Internal polling taken most recently overvalued Gabbard, and I’m honestly not quite sure how she didn’t live up to the polling suggestion.

Obviously there’s the issue of her funding — she didn’t have much. But she had a little help from her friends, the REALTORS, who played in the race late with a batch of mail.

I think what may have ultimately tanked her chances of forcing a runoff likely was her vote on raising utility rates and, even more so, her ill-advised decision to shine a spotlight on it the day before. That handed opponents, including Crist, some low-hanging fruit.

Ever hear the term someone “Barbara Streisanded” it? Yeah, well that’s what Gabbard did with a vote that might have been quietly cast without an onslaught of bad press.

Late-game paid media suggested that was the case, by spotlighting her votes to raise prices for residents.

Whether the outcome would have been different had she not voted in favor of the fee hike is anyone’s guess, but one thing is pretty clear: The Dump Duke effort is now all but dead without its highest profile cheerleader on the ballot anymore.

Good news abounds, but beware of the easy race

One thing the Crist campaign cannot do is take its win for granted. Even at more than 14 points, margins can shrink badly and rapidly. Look no further than Stephanie Murphy in Orange County. Murphy, a former Congresswoman with the name ID to match the job, spent nearly $2 million to win the Mayor’s race there, an Orange County record. She finished third in Tuesday’s Primary and won’t even make the runoff.

On the surface, this contradicts my first thing — that Welch has an 80% problem — but it’s an important point to note because of something else I also pointed out, that winning campaigns always run as if they are behind. A drop in support is always just one campaign surprise away. Campaigns work hard to avoid them, and Crist’s campaign is as top-notch as they come, but sometimes they happen without warning and at no one’s direct fault.

Ask Welch about that. A hurricane named Milton is largely to blame for his current predicament and, last we checked, Welch doesn’t control the weather (that’s Pudge, and you have to give him a peanut butter sandwich).

As Mayor, though, Welch can control how he responds to the unexpected, and he beefed it.

Nevertheless, expect the Crist campaign to keep its pedal to the metal. And if you were a Gabbard, Large, Batdorf or Scruggs supporter or donor, expect a call.

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Ed. note: Michelle Todd Schorsch is the Chair of St. Pete Shines, a political committee backing Crist for St. Petersburg Mayor. Todd Schorsch is married to Peter Schorsch, the publisher of Florida Politics.