The NHL season is quickly approaching. To speed up the wait until the puck finally drops on the season, I’ll be previewing one team every day. I’ll be going one division at a time and publishing these in the order I think they’ll finish from first to worst. I’m currently going through the Atlantic Division.

Last year’s finish: 2nd in Atlantic Division

Playoffs: Lost in first round

Predicted finish: 1st in Atlantic Division

Since winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021 and making it back to the Stanley Cup Final in 2022, the Tampa Bay Lightning have still done a whole lot of winning — just not in the playoffs.

Since the 2022-23 season, the Lightning are seventh in the league in points and continue to ice one of the league’s most talented rosters. But they’ve been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs all four years, including twice against the in-state rival Panthers. This year should offer more of the same regular season success for Tampa Bay, and they’re due for another deep playoff run.

You know what you’re getting from Tampa Bay at this point. Andrei Vasilevskiy is still one of the league’s best goaltenders, and he’s coming off a season where he saved the fourth-most goals above expected (23.6) and captured his second Vezina Trophy. Nikita Kucherov remains one of the league’s best forwards and had a stretch last year in December and January where he had 50 points in 25 games. He lost out on a third consecutive Art Ross Trophy by eight points and should be one of the league’s top producers yet again. Anthony Cirelli is still a rock-solid second-line center.

One way that Tampa Bay has been able to keep its competitive window is that all of its big swings have been no-doubt home runs. Brandon Hagel has turned into one of the league’s best play-driving forwards and is a lethal finisher. Jake Guentzel is of a similar mold and has seen his shooting luck swing back in his favor after years of underperformance toward the end of his Pittsburgh tenure (plus a brief stop in Carolina).

While the Lightning have had to move on from players due to salary cap constraints, they’ve also done a good job of making smart, cheap adds. Moving Mikhail Sergachev gave them J.J. Moser, who has become an excellent two-way, top-pairing defender. Moser’s ascension has been critical for the Lightning, as longtime franchise defenseman Victor Hedman has finally started to decline. The Lightning also signed Charle-Edouard D’Astous out of Sweden last year and immediately turned him into a dependable second-pairing defenseman.

They’ll be hoping for a similar outcome this year after dealing defenseman Darren Raddysh to Toronto in a sign-and-trade. Raddysh is a late bloomer who scored more goals last year (22) than the rest of his NHL career combined (13). Whether or not the Lightning should have rolled the dice by paying a 30-year-old Raddysh the $8.5 million for eight years he’s being paid in Toronto, defensemen with 20-plus goals and 70 points don’t exactly grow on trees.

Instead, the Lightning gave John Carlson said $8.5 million for each of the next two years. At 36, he’s no spring chicken, but his five-on-five impacts show no signs of decline. After the longtime Capital was traded to Anaheim at the trade deadline, the Ducks were a completely different team with him on the ice. Carlson still brings a lot of offense and can hold his own defensively. Plus, Carlson historically has been very good on the power play, and the Lightning’s power play is coming off a disappointing year. Tampa Bay just needs him to hold off Father Time for a little longer.

The Lightning also signed Ilya Mikheyev and Jeffrey Viel. They should bring plenty of grit and toughness to the bottom of Tampa Bay’s lineup, but not much more than that. New backup goalie Dennis Hildeby played well in Toronto, but he’s only played in 26 NHL games. Conor Geekie locking down a full-time NHL gig would really help take some weight off the Lightning’s stars’ shoulders.

As long as Kucherov, Vasilevskiy and co. all stay healthy, it should be another strong season for the Lightning. But there are some risks. For one, this roster isn’t getting any younger. Kucherov, Vasilevskiy, Guentzel, Brayden Point, Hedman, Carlson and Ryan McDonagh are all 30 or older. At some point, these players aren’t going to be what they used to be. The decline shouldn’t start this year, but it’s worth noting.

For another, Tampa Bay really needs more from Point, who was limited to just 50 points in 63 games last year. He’s been the type of player whose production is a lot better than his underlying numbers for a while now, but that only works if the production is elite. And it wasn’t last year.

However, the Lightning should be just as good as they have been in the past. Predicting future success in the playoffs is a fool’s errand in hockey, and all you can really do is ice the best team you can and hope for the best. Tampa Bay has certainly done that.

All advanced stats are from Hockey Stats